Afternoon summary
- Kemi Badenoch has been eliminated from the Conservative leadership race, setting up a battle between Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss to join Rishi Sunak in the last round. Some bookmakers are now giving odds making Truss the new favourite in the contest. These are the implied odds of winning from Smarkets, the betting exchange company.
- Labour under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn was riven by bitter infighting, with his supporters and opponents using the issue of antisemitism within the party “as a factional weapon”, a long-awaited report has said. In his response to the report, published in full on his Facebook page, Corbyn says the report should trigger a debate about whether or not the Labour party is there to serve its members. He says:
The appalling behaviour that Forde calls out, including the repulsive racism and sexism shown to Diane Abbott and others, should have no place in a progressive party. Toxic factionalism is far from over - nor are persistent problems of racism and sexism - and action must be taken, as Forde makes clear.
Most of all, the party needs to decide what it is for and who decides that. Are we a democratic socialist party, run by members and affiliated unions, that aims for a fundamental transfer of wealth and power from the few to the many? Or are we something else?
Government releases further details of public sector pay awards
The government has now published various written ministerial statements with details of pay awards.
Priti Patel, the home secretary, has published details of the pay award for police officers. She says:
The review body recommends a consolidated increase of £1,900 to all police officer pay points for all ranks from 1 September 2022, equivalent to 5% overall. It is targeted at those on the lowest pay points to provide an uplift of up to 8.8%, and between 0.6% and 1.8% for those on the highest pay points. The government recognises that increases in the cost of living are having a significant impact on the lower paid. It is within this context and after careful consideration that we have chosen to accept this recommendation in full. As at March 2022 there are 142,526 police officers who will receive this consolidated increase.
Patel has also published details of the pay awards for police and crime commissioners.
Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has said members of armed forces will get a 3.75% pay rise. The full details are here.
Steve Barclay, the health secretary, has released full details of the award for NHS staff. (See 4.31pm.)
James Cleverly, the education secretary, has released full details of the award for teachers. (See 5.16pm.)
Dominic Raab, the justice secretary, says he has decided judges should get a 3% pay rise, instead of the 3.5% recommended by the senior salaries review body.
And Raab says prison officers will get a pay rise of at least 4%, with more for lower paid staff.
Heather Wheeler, the Cabinet Office minister, says senior civil servants should get an across the board increase of 2%, instead of the 3% recommended by the senior salaries review body. But pay band minimums will increase too.
Experienced teachers in England to get 5% pay rise, government announces
Experienced teachers in England will get a 5% pay rise for the next academic year, the government has announced after recommendations from the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB). PA Media says:
Both the NASUWT and NEU teaching unions, which have threatened strikes in autumn over pay, have said the proposed increase of 5% for more experienced staff is too low.
The NEU has said it will now consult its members on strike action in the autumn.
NASUWT previously said it would hold a national strike ballot if the government fails to “deliver pay restoration for teachers”.
And Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the NEU teaching union, previously said a 5% rise for more experienced staff would be “unacceptable”.
The government announced the starting salary for teachers outside London will rise by 8.9%, with salaries reaching £28,000 for the 2022/23 academic year.
It said this meant it had made “good progress” towards a manifesto commitment for starting salaries rising to £30,000.
“Those in the early stages of their careers will also benefit from significant increases, ranging from 5% to 8% depending on experience,” the government said.
Kevin Courtney, joint general secretary of the NEU teaching union, said the government had been “forced” by members to drop a previous proposal of 3% for experienced teachers, but added it had not “moved far enough”.
He said a 5% increase would mean “yet another huge cut” to the real value of pay against inflation, and that this would mean members were consulted over strike action in autumn.
“With RPI inflation at 11.7% according to the latest figures, experienced teachers would see a bigger pay cut than the one inflicted by last year’s pay freeze and even the increase to starting pay is below inflation so is a real-terms pay cut,” he said.
The rise is equivalent to an increase of almost £2,100 on the average salary of £42,400 this year.
Corbyn's supporters welcome Forde report as showing they were right about some party staff undermining his leadership
Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters in the Labour party have welcomed the findings of the Forde report (see 2.29pm and 4.17pm), saying it vindicates claims they made at the time about how some staffers at party HQ were obstructive or hostile to the leadership. Here are some of their responses.
From Len McCluskey, the former Unite general secretary
I am outraged that Labour staff secretly pushed money to "anti-Corbyn MPs and not on campaigns for pro-Corbyn candidates" in the 2017 election, as Forde has confirmed.
— Len McCluskey (@LenMcCluskey) July 19, 2022
Unite was the biggest funder of that campaign. It was likely Unite members' money. There must be action. pic.twitter.com/np0UXdL6fF
From John McDonnell, the former shadow chancellor
Shockingly Forde report findings confirm what was suspected. That party officials secretly diverted election funds in 2017, prevented supporters of Jeremy Corbyn from having a vote in the leadership election & used discriminatory abuse. To move on lessons need to be learnt.
— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) July 19, 2022
Forde is calls for a cultural change in how Labour politicians, officials and members treat & respect each other. A good start in changing the culture would be the restoration of the Labour whip to Jeremy Corbyn & allowing appeals under new system for all those disciplined before
— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) July 19, 2022
From Momentum, the pro-Corbyn Labour organisation
A statement on the Forde report from Momentum Co-Chair @HilarySchan pic.twitter.com/WX97zmW63Q
— Momentum 🌹 (@PeoplesMomentum) July 19, 2022
From Alex Nunns, the journalist and former Corbyn speechwriter
The Forde report confirms many claims made by the left about the Corbyn years. But its biggest flaw is its desperation to "both sides" each point, as if an elected leadership with a mandate, and unelected staff resisting that mandate, are equally culpable for factional conflict.>
— Alex Nunns (@alexnunns) July 19, 2022
Here is an extreme example. Forde finds the group chat of senior HQ staff was reprehensible, but then says he "can only speculate" if a similar group chat existed in LOTO. I was in various LOTO group chats and never saw abusive language. Don't speculate, stick to the evidence. pic.twitter.com/JfKMhUygwO
— Alex Nunns (@alexnunns) July 19, 2022
Andrew Fisher, Corbyn’s former head of policy, has criticised the Labour party’s response to the report.
This sort of glib response is disappointing from the Labour leadership
— Andrew Fisher (@FisherAndrew79) July 19, 2022
If they'd read the Forde's report they'd have seen the "continuing concerns" regarding disciplinary procedures and around "a hierarchy of racism or discrimination"
A time for reflection, not grandstanding https://t.co/AsesSmcikj
And my colleague Owen Jones, who was one of Corbyn’s most prominent media supporters, has posted a long Twitter thread on the report. It starts here.
This is utterly damning from the Ford Report.
— Owen Jones 🌹 (@OwenJones84) July 19, 2022
It dismisses claims from senior Labour officials that their messages "were cherrypicked and selectively edited", and condemns them for both "deplorably factional" and "at times discriminatory attitudes". pic.twitter.com/suWeFk31wd
Police pay is going to go up by an average of 5%, with low earners getting more and high earners getting less, the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar reports.
NEW: Home Office announces all police officers to get £1,900 payrise from 1 Sept, equivalent to 5% overall.
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) July 19, 2022
Lowest paid will get up to 8.8% and highest paid 0.6%. (Still a real terms cut as inflation 9.1% & expected to hit 11%)
Updated
Department of Health announces NHS pay awards, with eligible doctors getting 4.5%
The government is starting to release details of public sector pay awards. The Department of Health and Social Care says all NHS staff will get a pay rise of at least £1,400, with the lowest earners receiving up to 9.3%.
Eligible dentists and doctors will receive a 4.5% pay rise, it says. DHSC says:
All NHS staff under the remit of this year’s pay review will receive a pay rise. Over 1 million staff under the Agenda for Change contract, including nurses, paramedics and midwives, will benefit from a pay rise of at least £1,400 this year backdated to April 2022. This is on top of the 3% pay rise they received last year, despite a wider public sector pay pause.
This means that the lowest earners such as porters and cleaners will see a 9.3% increase in their basic pay this year, compared to last year. The average basic pay for nurses will increase from around £35,600 as of March 2022 to around £37,000 and the basic pay for newly qualified nurses will increase by 5.5%, from £25,655 last year to £27,055.
Dentists and doctors within the Doctors and Dentists’ Remuneration Body (DDRB) remit this year will receive a 4.5% pay rise as the government accepts the recommendations of the independent NHS Pay Review Body (NHSPRB) and the DDRB in full.
Across the public sector, these are the highest uplifts in nearly 20 years, reflecting the vital contributions public sector workers make to the country and the cost of living pressures facing households.
Updated
Back to the Tories, and the Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt campaigns are both trying to win over Kemi Badenoch’s supporters.
A Truss campaign spokesperson said:
Kemi Badenoch has run a fantastic campaign and contributed enormously to the battle of ideas throughout this contest.
Now is the time for the party to unite behind a candidate who will govern in a Conservative way and who has shown she can deliver time and again.
Liz has a bold new economic agenda that will immediately tackle the cost of living crisis, boost economic growth and continue leading the global fight for freedom in Ukraine.
And Mordaunt said:
This afternoon colleagues once again put their trust in me and I cannot thank them enough. We are so nearly across the finish line. I am raring to go and excited to put my case to members across the country and win.
I want to pay tribute to my friend Kemi Badenoch who electrified the leadership contest with her fresh thinking and bold policies. She and I both know that the old way of government isn’t working as it should. Voters want change and we owe it to them to offer a bold new vision for this country. Kemi’s passion for this showed and I’m glad she put herself forward to be heard.
10 takeaways from the Forde report into factionalism in Labour party
The Forde report into factionalism in the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn, and specifically into a leaked report exposing anti-Corbyn staffers making racist and sexist comments, is available online in full here. Here are 10 takeaways from what it says.
1) Supporters AND opponents of Corbyn using the issue of antisemitism within the party “as a factional weapon”. Both “sides” were thus “weaponising the issue and failing to recognise the seriousness of antisemitism”.
2) Factional warfare undermined the party’s ability to function. Under Corbyn, the party was “spending more time occupied by factional differences than working collaboratively to demonstrate that the party is an effective opposition”.
Both sides blamed one another for this inability to properly function. The report says:
Both genuinely believed that the other side was trying to sabotage their work in this period – sometimes with a degree of justification, and sometimes not.
On the 2017 election, Forde concludes it was “highly unlikely” that the parallel campaign run by anti-Corbyn staffers cost the party the election by, for example, funnelling support elsewhere. He says: “The two sides were trying to win in different ways.”
3) There is not clear evidence that Corbyn’s team or others overtly interfered in investigations about alleged antisemitism. The report finds most of the problems were created by a lack of clarity on procedures, aggravated by factionalism.
4) The report dismissed the complaint by Labour staffers that derogatory messages were “cherrypicked and selectively edited” in the leaked report. It says they were “deplorably factional and insensitive, and at times discriminatory, attitudes”.
5) Corbyn himself declined to be interviewed for the report, though signed a joint submission to the inquiry. Forde described the Labour leader as “notably silent”.
6) Forde also finds there is a “vociferous faction in the party sees any issues regarding antisemitism as exaggerated by the right to embarrass the left”.
7) He also finds that the leaked report itself – authored at Unite’s headquarters – was “a factional document with an agenda to advance, and that the quoted messages were selected pursuant to that agenda”.
8) There is significant work still to be done to combat racism in the party, Forde finds. Authors of the WhatsApp messages “should have considered … the fact that Diane Abbott is a black woman, and has been vilified on that basis over several decades”.
9) But Forde also finds the messages’ authors “were not given a right of reply before their messages were included in the leaked report; that was a clear breach of natural justice”. He says some were reported in a “selective way”.
10) Forde praises the changes under Keir Starmer to the disciplinary process. He says;
We must commend the party for its efforts more recently to achieve a greater degree of independence in its system of regulation, with notable reforms approved at the party conference in 2021.
Updated
This is from Kemi Badenoch.
I’m grateful to my colleagues and the party members who have supported me.
— Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) July 19, 2022
This campaign began less than two weeks ago. What we’ve achieved demonstrates the level of support for our vision of change for our country and for the Conservative Party.
Thank you. pic.twitter.com/2hnk3nyynY
Candidates often enter a leadership contest not really expecting to win, but hoping to raise their profile in the party. Badenoch has achieved that more successfully than most fourth-placed candidates, and, whoever wins, she can expect a promotion in the reshuffle.
Updated
Tory leadership ballot result - snap verdict
Rishi Sunak is almost certain to be on the final ballot for party members, and he is more likely to be facing Liz Truss than Penny Mordaunt, these results suggest. (See 3.03pm.) But nothing is certain from these numbers – other than the fact that Kemi Badenoch, the former equalities minister, is now out of the contest.
Sunak is now only one vote away from the point where he is guaranteed a slot on the final ballot. Previously 120 (just over a third of the total electorate, 357 MPs) was the point where it became mathematically impossible for both other candidates to get more votes, but, with Tobias Ellwood now banned from taking part, 119 is the benchmark. Sunak is on 118. It is almost impossible to believe he will not get there tomorrow. But he has been finding it increasingly hard to pick up votes. In the second ballot he was up 13 votes, and in the third he was up 14 votes. Today he is up just three.
Mordaunt is up 10 votes on yesterday. But she was expected to do quite well with the 31 Tom Tugendhat votes released last night, but instead more of them may have gone to Truss, who is up by 15 votes. It is never quite that simple, because it’s a secret ballot and the votes that change are not just those released by a candidate who has fallen out, but this does suggest Truss has momentum. And it also suggests that “Stop Mordaunt” may be a more powerful voting incentive than “Stop Truss”.
The “Stop Mordaunt” vote might also be a “Stop Sunak” vote, if MPs are assuming that Truss would beat Sunak, but Sunak would beat Mordaunt. No one can be sure that this assessment is true, but Truss is a more experienced campaigner than Mordaunt, with stronger convictions. She seems to have impressed Tory members more than Mordaunt in the past week. (See 2pm.)
Truss is now only six votes behind Mordaunt. But Badenoch’s supporters are mostly rightwingers, and rightwingers identify with Truss but not Mordaunt. (Both started off as Cameron centrists, but Truss has done a better job of reinventing herself.)
And even if the Badenoch votes break in favour of Truss rather than Mordaunt by just 60%/40% (as they may have done today), that would still be enough to allow Truss to overtake Mordaunt.
Updated
Badenoch out of Tory leadership contest, as Truss gets closer to Mordaunt, with Sunak still leading
Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, reads out the result. He starts: “Nearly there.” The last ballot is tomorrow
Rishi Sunak - 118 (up 3)
Penny Mordaunt - 92 (up 10)
Liz Truss - 86 (up 15)
Kemi Badenoch - 59 (up 1)
The 1922 Committee is about to announce the results of the fourth ballot for the Tory leadership.
Updated
Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss pulled out of a planned TV debate, leading to it being cancelled, after senior Tories took the view that the ITV debate on Sunday night was a PR disaster for the party.
Quite how right they were is shown by this Labour party video, which is little more than a round-up of edited highlights from the debate.
All your bills going up and up and up.
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) July 19, 2022
Taxes rising to the highest level in 70 years.
The worst economic crisis for a generation.
Not our words.
The words of those running to be the next Tory leader.
See what else they think of 12 years of Tory failure: pic.twitter.com/N7seYcHPV4
Given what is happening in the Conservative party, producing Labour party campaign adverts must be one of the easier jobs in politics at the moment. Michael Gove has just scripted another advert-in-waiting for the party only this lunchtime. (See 2.47pm.)
Government failing to deliver 'certain essential functions' for voters, says Gove
Michael Gove, the former levelling up secretary, has said the government is failing to deliver “certain essential functions” like swiftly providing driving licences and passports. Speaking at a Policy Exchange event, he said the state should “do fewer things” but be “strong and effective”. He said:
I believe that there are certain essential functions that the state needs to do better, and which we fail to deliver at the moment.
There are some core functions, giving you your passport, giving your driving licence, which is simply at the moment not functioning ...
We are no longer providing people, either with the efficient delivery of services or the effective focus on what the state should do.
I think that’s because we have become a government and an administration that is knocked off course by powerful stories that are told by people with a mission - and our own sense of mission has not been strong enough to resist that.
At the same event Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister, blamed the civil service for government failings. He said:
We’re always told that we have a Rolls-Royce [civil service] and the problem is that ministers don’t make their will clear.
Well, ministers made their will clear about coming back into the office several months ago and yet it is still not happening. So I believe there is something very fundamentally wrong in the way the civil service and the state is working.
But Camilla Cavendish, who was head of David Cameron’s policy unit when he was PM, criticised Frost for blaming civil servants. She said:
There are people on this panel who have been in government for the past few years and under you guys this stuff has fallen apart - so why haven’t you done anything about it?
Government criticised for increasing school funding in England by 1.9% per pupil
The government has announced that schools in England will get a 1.9% increase in per-pupil funding next year, prompting fury from teaching unions who described it as “a big real-terms cut for education spending” and warned of a return “to the bad days of austerity.”
With inflation predicted to soar into double digits by the autumn, Kevin Courtney, joint general secretary of the National Education Union, said the government’s latest funding award would end up “damaging” children’s education, rather than improving it.
There was also criticism of a 2.1% increase in funding for free school meals which will amount to an additional £10 a head. Liberal Democrat education spokesperson Munira Wilson said:
With food and energy prices spiralling, schools too are suffering from the cost-of-living crisis.
Increasing free school meals funding by just £10 per head a year will not stop schools from choosing between cutting quality or putting up prices for other struggling families.
Boris Johnson’s parting gift to schools is a slap in the face. As our teachers deal with sweltering classrooms and squeezed salaries, this Conservative government has handed mainstream schools a real terms pay cut worth almost £2.5bn.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies showed that school funding per pupil in 2024 will be at about the same level in real terms as in 2010. He said:
The government has short-changed education for many years and, unfortunately, that has left the sector in a very difficult financial situation.
Antisemitism was used as ‘factional weapon’ in Labour party, Forde report finds
Labour, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, was riven with bitter factional infighting, with both supporters and opponents of Corbyn using the issue of antisemitism within the party “as a factional weapon”, a long-awaited report has said. My colleague Peter Walker has the story here.
This is from William Wragg, a vice chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, with a picture from the room whre the Tory ballots are being counted.
The heat is on 🥵 pic.twitter.com/faA4991eOn
— William Wragg MP (@William_Wragg) July 19, 2022
Voting closes
Voting has now closed in the Tory leadership ballot. The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith says an “Anyone but Liz” faction is wants to see Liz Truss knocked out of the contest.
NEW: Tom Tugendhat backers are trying to block Liz Truss from the final two by boosting Penny Mordaunt.
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) July 19, 2022
Some who want Rishi to be PM may back Penny today to block Truss’s path. One says many who voted for Tugendhat are “anyone but Liz”.https://t.co/szbcbpvcwb
One of the 31 MPs who voted for Tugendhat tells me:
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) July 19, 2022
“Lots of them are in the ‘anyone but Liz’ camp. Liz has weirdly allowed herself to become the continuity Boris plus ERG candidate, which is a strange place for Liz to be. For today, I think a lot of people will vote for Penny.”
A Tugendhat ally on where his supporters may go next:
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) July 19, 2022
“Most of them will go to Penny or Rishi. The majority - but not all - are not huge fans of Liz. So there may be an element of Penny picking up a few.”
Usual caveats… the 31 MPs are not a single block. Two have already come out for Sunak. Expectation the votes will split today to some degree.
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) July 19, 2022
But many One Nation members are Tugendhat supporters… argument being their policy cuade benefits if Truss is blocked from final two.
Updated
YouGov poll suggests Badenoch would beat all rivals in final ballot - and Sunak would lose badly to all of them
YouGov has released new polling from Conservative party members that suggests Rishi Sunak would lose by a large margin to all three of his remaining rivals - Kemi Badenoch, Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt - in the final ballot.
The poll suggests Badenoch would beat all the others, although her margin over Truss (46% to 43%) is so close that YouGov say they are effectively tied.
A week ago, when YouGov conducted a similar poll, the results suggested Mordaunt would beat all other candidates. Since then her support has been plummeting (albeit from a very high base) and the poll suggests Badenoch and Truss would both beat her - but not by much.
TORY MEMBERS POLL: Mordaunt has lost her commanding lead, with herself, Truss and Badenoch now all effectively tied in their head to heads
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 19, 2022
Mordaunt: 42% (-13)
Truss: 48% (+11)
Mordaunt: 43% (-16)
Badenoch: 48% (+18)
Badenoch: 46% (+9)
Truss: 43% (-11)https://t.co/feL6oXerIk pic.twitter.com/B0YtzJo6Hc
Rishi Sunak continues to lose his head to heads by wide margins, although he has gained ground on Mordaunt, and to a lesser extent Truss
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 19, 2022
Sunak: 37% (+9 from 13 Jul)
Mordaunt: 51% (-16)
Sunak: 35% (n/c)
Truss: 54% (-5)
Sunak: 34% (-6)
Badenoch: 56% (+7)https://t.co/feL6oXerIk pic.twitter.com/5CmiFhNvuc
The YouGov results are broadly similar to the findings of a ConservativeHome survey of party members released at the weekend. That also had Badenoch beating all other candidates in one to one contests.
But the ConservativeHome survey had Badenoch getting a much higher level of support than YouGov did (it had her beating Truss by 61% to 31%, not 46% to 43%), and ConservativeHome also had Sunak beating Mordaunt (by 43% to 41%).
The YouGov sample, with 725 members, is weighted. The ConservativeHome panel is bigger, with around 840 members, but it is self-selecting, and may be more representative of highly engaged party members. They are also readers of ConservativeHome, which has given Badenoch a lot of positive coverage.
The YouGov poll and the ConservativeHome survey both suggest that opinion has shifted considerably over the last week, as members have learnt more about the candidates. The contest has several more weeks to run and so in theory we could see more big fluctuations. But many members vote as soon as they get a ballot paper, and so realistically it could be decided by early August.
Updated
These are from my colleage Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence editor, on Liz Truss’s promise to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP. (See 10.11am.)
Truss pledge to hike defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 means c£20-25bn extra spend on defence
— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) July 19, 2022
How will that be paid for given Truss is a tax cutter?
What will it mean: more submarines, fewer hospitals?
Expensive way to buy Tugendhat votes - paid for by *you* pic.twitter.com/ZtYGowkNP1
There are good arguments for supporting Ukraine as part of a wider international coalition - but does that require lifting defence spending by nearly 50% in eight years? And can the notoriously wasteful MoD spend extra money wisely?
— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) July 19, 2022
Here is Boris Johnson with his leaving present from the cabinet: Churchill’s six-volume history of the second world war. (See 12pm.)
Given that Johnson has written a biography of Churchill, you might assume he would have had a set already.
Updated
Penny Mordaunt, the international trade minister and Tory leadership candidate, has today released a plan for levelling up. She says she will double the number of apprenticeships available in the north, deliver the Northern Powerhouse Rail project and ensure that 50% of new hydrogen capacity is built in the north.
She has also backed the Northern Research Group’s four-point plan for the north.
We were elected on a pledge to Level Up the entire UK. It's time to deliver. https://t.co/UAfytPSCdQ
— Penny Mordaunt (@PennyMordaunt) July 19, 2022
Jake Berry, chair of the Northern Research Group, was one of Tom Tugendhat’s most prominent backers, and he has retweeted Mordaunt’s tweet about the pledge, which is probably a sign that his vote is now heading her way.
Today the Times quotes one unnamed Tugendhat supporter saying most of his votes could go to Mordaunt. It reports:
Before the third ballot, one backer of Tugendhat said that they believed a majority of his supporters would now move to Mordaunt. Mordaunt, who was in the cabinet under Theresa May but has only held junior positions under [Boris] Johnson, is seen by some MPs to also embody the clean start offered by Tugendhat. One Tugendhat supporter said, however, that they believed the main reason many would move to Mordaunt was that they wanted to “keep Truss out of the final two”.
This is the full story from my colleague Helena Horton on Kemi Badenoch’s declaration last night that she would be willing to delay the 2050 net zero target - having told a Tory hustings earlier that she was committed to it. (See 10.01am.)
Ukrainian foreign minister pays tribute to Truss's 'mettle, inner steel and clarity of purpose'
Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has won an endorsement in her campaign for the Conservative leadership from Dmytro Kuleba, her Ukrainian counterpart.
UK support has been vital for Ukraine’s defense all the way through Russian aggression. I am deeply grateful to the government of the UK and especially my counterpart @TrussLiz. Her mettle, inner steel, and clarity of purpose have been indispensable in crafting crucial decisions.
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) July 19, 2022
Boris Johnson posed for a team photograph with his cabinet today to mark what might be their last meeting together.
Voting opens in fourth round of leadership ballot
Voting has opened in the fourth round of the Tory leadership ballot.
Updated
Boris Johnson received first-edition copies of Winston Churchill’s books on the second world war as a gift from cabinet colleagues, PA Media reports. PA says:
The books by Churchill, a hero of Johnson’s, were presented to the prime minister by his entire cabinet, a Downing Street spokesman said.
“At the conclusion of cabinet, the prime minister was presented with gifts to thank him for his service to the country, including first editions of Winston Churchill’s books on the second world war,” the spokesman told reporters.
Updated
Penny Mordaunt’s supporters do believe that No 10 has removed the whip from Tobias Ellwood to stop him voting for her in the leadership ballot (contrary to what Nadine Dorries claims - see 11.21am), Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt reports.
Real anger in @PennyMordaunt camp after her supporter @Tobias_Ellwood stripped of Tory whip for missing last night’s confidence vote in the government after he failed to return in time from trip to Moldova
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) July 19, 2022
The Mordaunt camp are dismissing the whips’ argument about why other Conservative MPs who missed the vote have kept the whip: that they were paired with opposition MPs. One Mordaunt backer tells me: why didn’t they do that for Tobias? He was visiting Moldova
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) July 19, 2022
Government whips may feel the heat. One Mordaunt backer tells me: it could all come down to one one vote and they have taken that away
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) July 19, 2022
Updated
Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary and Boris Johnson loyalist, has dismissed as “ridiculous” claims that Tobias Ellwood has had the Tory whip removed to stop him voting against the Johnson candidate in the leadership contest. (See 10.08am and 10.45am.)
This is wholly untrue and frankly utterly ridiculous. Every single MP of every party is under no illusion regarding the price to be paid in not voting during a Gov confidence motion. It’s a very clearly defined and historic red line. Tobias could have voted like everyone else. https://t.co/IXo6ZqHXa6
— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) July 19, 2022
Labour says Forde report on claims of racism, sexism and bullying in party could be published today
It was a New Labour special adviser that coined the phrase about “a good day to bury bad news”. Today would sort of qualify – the hottest day ever, public sector pay awards being published, the Tory leadership contest at a key stage – and Labour has confirmed that today it might publish a report that is likely to be horribly embarrassing to the party.
A Labour spokesperson said:
Labour’s general secretary, David Evans, has now received the Forde report and he will be taking it to today’s national executive committee meeting with a clear recommendation that the NEC agree the publication of the report as soon as possible today.
The report, from Martin Forde QC, was commissioned after the leak of an internal Labour report in 2020 purportedly showed evidence of party staff being guilty of bullying, racism and sexism. The leak, which seemed to be a hostile act aimed at Jeremy Corbyn’s opponents (who came out worst from the revelations), led to the party being sued for defamation and breach of privacy.
My colleague Jessica Elgot has a guide to the background of the Forde report here.
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Ellwood defends missing confidence vote, saying he is abroad promoting Johnson's Ukraine policy
Tobias Ellwood has said that travel disruption meant he could not return from Moldova yesterday in time for the Commons confidence vote. (See 10.08am.) He said he was “very sorry” to have the whip withdrawn, but that he would continue with his tour, where he will be having meetings about reopening Odesa port. He said:
Following my meeting yesterday with the president of Moldova I was unable to secure return travel due to unprecedented disruption both here and in the UK.
I am very sorry to lose the whip but will now continue my meetings in Ukraine promoting the prime minister’s efforts here and specifically seeking to secure the reopening of Odesa port - so vital grain exports can recommence.
Although MPs can have the whip removed for failing to obey a three-line whip, it is unusual for this sanction to be deployed against an MP who only misses a vote, and does not vote against the party, and has a reasonable excuse for being away. It is even more unusual for this to happen in relation to a vote which the party was at no risk of losing. Boris Johnson has a majority of 111 in the vote last night.
But Ellwood has been one of Johnson’s most vocal backbench critics and Johnson is vengeful. He once said his favourite movie scene was the end of the Godfather with its “multiple retribution killings”. His decision to sack Michael Gove as levelling up secretary two weeks ago seemed to be motivated purely by score settling.
The loss of the whip would be serious for Ellwood if it meant he could not stand as a Conservative candidate at the next election. But the whip is likely to be restored by the next Tory leader well before any election takes place.
However, the move will stop Ellwood voting in the leadership contest today and tomorrow, and this could help Liz Truss get onto the final ballot against Rishi Sunak. Johnson blames Sunak for undermining him, and although he has not backed Truss in public, his allies are actively working to get her elected.
Johnson tells cabinet that heatwave vindicates government's net zero strategy
Boris Johnson is chairing what may be the final meeting of his cabinet and - as has become his usual practice in recent weeks - he invited in a TV camera to record his opening remarks.
Johnson claimed the heatwave vindicated the government’s decision to push for net zero carbon emissions by 2050. He told his ministers:
Who can doubt that we were right to be the first major economy to go for net zero? It may be sometimes unfashionable to say this but it is the right thing to do.
In fact, the legislation making 2050 a legally binding target was passed into law in the final days of Theresa May’s government, but Johnson has retained the commitment to net zero. As my colleague Fiona Harvey argues in today’s First Edition briefing, Johnson is more committed to net zero than any of the candidates who might succeed him. “Nobody else in the higher echelons of the Conservative party gives a stuff,” Fiona says. “He was the only champion green Tories had.”
Addressing cabinet, Johnson also suggested the experience coming out of lockdown showed why the heatwave should not be allowed to stop people working. He said:
On another scorching, sweltering day I think it’s very, very important that we think back to that moment that we opened up [after the lockdown] and try and balance risk with the need to keep our country, our society and our economy moving.
I hope, cabinet, that you are all agreed that as far as possible we should keep schools open and keep our transport system going as far as we possibly can.
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Truss says she would raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030
Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has used an interview with the Times to declare that she would raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030. She said:
We live in an increasingly dangerous world where the threat level is higher than a decade ago, and we need a stronger deterrent to face down those threats and ensure Britain leads on the global stage. Ultimately that requires more resources. My number one priority is keeping this country safe and people can trust me to do that.
Britain and the free world face a defining moment. We need a prime minister capable of leading internationally, who can also drive the economic growth we need here at home. I am the candidate best placed to do that.
In a briefing about the announcement, the Truss campaign said defence spending needed to go up because of the increased threat from China and Russia. This message may appeal to some of the 31 supporters of Tom Tugendhat whose votes are up for grabs today. Tugendhat, chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, has consistently argued that the UK has not taken the threat from China and Russia seriously enough.
Tory MP Tobias Ellwood has whip withdrawn after failing to back government in confidence vote
Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the Commons defence committee, has had the Tory whip removed because he did not vote for the government in the confidence debate last night, the Times’ Henry Zeffman reports. Ellwood, who was one of the Tories most critical of Boris Johnson, did not have permission to be away.
NEW: Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood has been stripped of the whip by Boris Johnson for failing to support the government in last night’s confidence vote
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) July 19, 2022
Ellwood seems to have been abroad. A Conservative source said that he was told last Wednesday he would have to cancel the trip. They said Ellwood was “reminded of the consequences well in advance of the vote”
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) July 19, 2022
Ellwood was in Moldova. A Conservative Party source said: “Other Conservative MPs cancelled foreign trips, left poorly relatives and one MP’s mother died on the morning of the vote and still attended and voted.” https://t.co/uB98YuleaG
— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) July 19, 2022
As Steven Swinford reports, the decision means Ellwood will not be able to vote in parliamentary leadership ballot until the whip is restored. He is a Penny Mordaunt supporter, and in a very tight race, a single vote could potentially make a difference.
The race for No 2 in the Tory leadership contest is very, very tight
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) July 19, 2022
Tobias Ellwood - a Penny Mordaunt supporter - no longer has a vote after being stripped of the whip for failing to support govt in confidence vote
It's not unfeasible this all comes down to one or two votes https://t.co/jWLGwH1nFC
Badenoch says she would delay 2050 net zero target date in some circumstances
Kemi Badenoch can also claim to be the change candidate in another, less positive, sense. Yesterday she told a Tory climate fringe that she backed the government’s target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. She was the last candidate to make that commitment.
But later in the day she had an apparent change of heart and told Talk TV that her commitment to the 2050 date was not absolute. Asked if she would ever consider changing the 2050 deadline, she replied:
Yes, there are circumstances where I would delay it, but I think that the target itself is a bit of a red herring.
The full interview is here.
Badenoch claims she is only 'change candidate' left in Tory leadership contest
In a post on Twitter after last night’s results were declared Kemi Badenoch claimed that Tom Tugendhat’s departure from the race meant she was the only “change candidate” left in the race.
On to the next vote. Thank you to all my colleagues for their support.
— Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) July 18, 2022
It’s all to play for. Continued momentum, closing the gap, I am the only change candidate left in the race.
I’m in it to win.
Penny Mordaunt would probably contest that. Badenoch, the former equalities minister, is the only candidate still in the race who has not served in cabinet. But as equalities minister she pursued an “anti-woke” agenda popular with No 10.
Mordaunt, the international trade minister, never resigned from Boris Johnson’s government (unlike Badenoch). But she has never identified as an enthusiastic supporter of Johnsonism.
MPs to vote again with Sunak close to securing place on final ballot
Good morning. A week after nominations closed, and after three ballots, some of the fog around who will be our next prime minister has lifted and at least three propositions now seem reasonably well founded.
- Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, is now all but certain to be one of the two candidates on the final ballot for Conservative party members. He is now on 115 votes and once a candidate gets 120 (just over a third of the total), it is mathematically impossible for two other candidates to get more votes. Sunak is also particularly well placed to pick up many of the 31 Tom Tugendhat votes now up for grab; Sunak, like Tugendhat, presents as a mainstream pragmatist, not an ideological rightwinger.
- Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt are now the two strongest candidates in the contest to be the second person on the final ballot. One recent survey suggested both would beat Sunak in the final poll, but Truss more comfortably than Mordaunt. Almost certainly, Sunak’s chances would be better against Mordaunt; her lack of experience means the risk of her campaign imploding under scrutiny remains high (over the last week her popularity has already fallen significantly), and Truss, unlike Mordaunt, would be guaranteed the support of the Tory right en masse.
- Kemi Badenoch looks likely to be eliminated this afternoon. It is not inevitable - she has defied expectations already - but she remains 13 votes behind Truss, and may struggle to get much of the Tugendhat vote. If she does fall out, her votes will be for grabs tomorrow - and would decide whether Sunak faces Truss or Mordaunt, which could in turn determine who gets elected as the next PM.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Boris Johnson chairs what might be the last meeting of his cabinet.
10.30am: Officials from the CBI and the TUC are among the experts giving evidence to the Commons business committee on post-pandemic economic growth.
12pm: Voting starts in the fourth ballot for the Conservative party leadership. The ballot closes at 2pm.
12.30pm: Michael Gove, the former levelling up secretary, and Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister, take part in a discussion on the future of Conservatism at the Policy Exchange thinktank.
3pm: Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, announces the results of the latest leadership ballot.
Afternoon: Pay awards for around 2.5 million public sector workers, including NHS staff and teachers, are due to be announced.
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