The final decision on the next Tory leader ultimately falls to the party membership, after MPs vote to narrow the candidates down to two.
This means the decision on the identity of Britain’s future prime minister will be voted on by 200,000 people, more or less. And they are not just ordinary members of the public, they are fee-paying members of the party’s grassroots with their own sets of beliefs.
So who are the Tory faithful? In contrast to the wider population, research indicates more than half are aged over 60, and they tend to be male residents of southern England. They are overwhelmingly white – at 97% – although ethnic minorities remain heavily underrepresented across all UK political parties.
Inhabitants of “red wall” constituencies that formed the bedrock of the Tories’ 2019 landslide election victory are also in a minority, although the party last year claimed there had been recruitment rises in the north-east and Wales.
It is not entirely clear how many members there are. While just under 154,500 were eligible to vote in the last leadership election, sources at Conservative headquarters would only say there would be more this time.
Senior Tories claimed last year that membership had risen by 60% over three years to 200,000 – with the then party chair, Amanda Milling, crediting Boris Johnson’s “popularity” – but watchers of the party remained sceptical.
Either way, the “male and grey” profile of the party does not mean the membership can be expected to fall into predictable patterns when it comes to a leadership contest.
While they overwhelmingly backed Brexit, a snap YouGov poll this week of 716 members who were asked for their choice of new leader put Ben Wallace, a Johnson ally who nevertheless supported remaining in the EU, top of the list on 13%. He was followed in terms of popularity by five Brexiters, with Penny Mordaunt a close second on 12%.
One of the most detailed portraits of the UK party demographics was a study by the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, which found Tory members were at least twice as likely as members of other parties to associate with Saga, the travel and insurance company synonymous with leisured middle-class retirement.
While that research is four years old, little will have changed, according to one of its authors, Prof Tim Bale, also the author of Footsoldiers: Political Party Membership in the 21st Century. He was doubtful of Tory claims that there had been a significant rise in younger members.
“It’s difficult to imagine apart from those who are just ‘Tory boys and girls’ infused by Boris Johnson and the cult of Boris having joined the party in any great numbers,” he said.
But he also said that some views among Tory members were at odds with stereotypes. Past data that may make contenders such as Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak shift uneasily included a finding that about half believed big business takes advantage of ordinary people.
Although largely socially conservative and tough on law and order – the death penalty was supported by nearly six out of 10 – a significant minority were hostile to the societal status quo. A third felt ordinary working people do not get their fair share of Britain’s wealth, and that there is one law for the rich and another for the poor.
Bale said it was crucial that people did not assume that all members were also activists, adding: “Nearly half of people do virtually nothing whatsoever for their party, even at general elections. So a lot of them are spectators and subscription payers rather than boots on the ground, as it were.
“So we’re talking about quite a lot of people who are not political obsessives, as such. They won’t have met the candidates and will pay a lot more attention to media portrayals of them. At the parliamentary stage you’ll have MPs who will say things like: ‘I’ve talked to my local party’s activists.’ But that will be a small selection.”
He also stressed that research that was at odds with conventional wisdom had shown it was MPs who tended to be much more ideological than members. Away from the big beasts, wildcard candidates yet to make pitches may well be encouraged to believe there is all to play for.
