Senior Tories are calling on Jeremy Hunt to abandon further cuts to the army by raising defence funding at next month’s budget, amid growing unease at the state of Britain’s military capabilities.
The chancellor has been urged by MPs to ensure the number of troops is held at the current level of about 76,000, instead of reducing it to 73,000 by 2025.
The cut, announced in March 2021, has come under fire from backbenchers and figures in the Ministry of Defence, given the precarity of European peace demonstrated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Further concerns were aired over the weekend. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, was said to have pushed for an increase of up to £11bn in the MoD’s budget over two years, while a report – dismissed by the UK government – said Nato fears Britain has too few soldiers to take over leadership of its rapid-reaction force from Germany.
A stark warning was also issued on Monday by Nato’s general secretary, Jens Stoltenberg, who said “we are seeing the start already” of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine and called on countries to ramp up munitions production to continue supporting Kyiv.
While Hunt wants to increase defence spending, the Treasury is understood to have argued in negotiations with the MoD that any commitment made in the budget should not risk driving up inflation and instead be based on needs identified in the update to the UK’s 10-year defence and security strategy, known as the integrated review.
Sources have said that the update, being led by John Bew, the top foreign affairs adviser in No 10, is scheduled to be published on 7 March – a week before the budget.
Tory MPs have privately been voicing concern about any further cuts to army numbers, and Wallace has previously admitted that he is pushing the Treasury to maintain the current level.
James Sutherland, who served as an army officer for 26 years and is now the MP for Bracknell, said: “Most MPs who understand the context will tell you that the army should not be cut to 73,000, especially now.”
Other Tories privately insisted that there was “no appetite to reduce the size of the army” further and that “the current figure should stick”.
Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the Commons defence select committee, said recently it was “wrong” to believe the UK would “move our entire defence posture to some sort of cyber- and space security at the cost of our land warfare capabilities”.
Rishi Sunak was known for keeping a tight hand on the purse-strings as chancellor, when Wallace made previous public entreaties for bigger MoD budgets.
But the prime minister’s hosting of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in London last week was seen by some as evidence that he may be less hawkish when forced to intervene in the row between the Treasury and the MoD. “Rishi’s always said he’ll do whatever it takes,” said one Downing Street insider.
Extra defence cash in the budget on 15 March may not ultimately save the army from continuing with the planned cuts, with money remaining prioritised for cyber capabilities to keep up with the changing nature of warfare. A Whitehall source said: “We’re not being invaded right now, but we might be being hacked.”
David Davis, the Tory MP and former cabinet minister, called on the MoD to “get a handle on its current spending”. He cited the public accounts committee’s finding last year that the MoD had not “identified the modern battle-winning capabilities our armed forces need” in the face of “a number of potential adversaries rapidly developing new military technology”.
Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is expected to demonstrate Labour’s commitment to the armed forces and global security by attending the Munich security conference on Friday, where he will speak during a panel session and hold a series of bilateral meetings.
