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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
World
Nicholas Cecil and Rachael Burford

Tories to lose all but five London seats in general election disaster for Rishi Sunak, new poll suggests

The Tories face losing all their London seats apart from five in a general election disaster for Rishi Sunak, according to a new poll.

The YouGov survey showed the Conservatives haemorrhaging more than a dozen seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

The Tories would be hit with a total wipeout in Inner London, with even London minister Greg Hands losing his Chelsea and Fulham seat.

In Outer London, the Tories would hold onto only Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Orpington, Sutton and Cheam, and Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner.

But this would still be a historic low for the Conservatives.

Labour would win 403 seats from across the UK, leading to a 154-seat Commons majority, the poll suggested.

The Conservatives would win just 155 seats, 210 down from the 365 seats they clinched at the 2019 general election.

It would be a worse result for Mr Sunak than John Major's 1997 defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats.

Sir Keir Starmer is, meanwhile, on course to win a victory on par with that of Tony Blair's in his first term of office, according to the survey.

In 1997, Labour won 418 of the available 659 Commons seats.

The YouGov survey is the latest poll to use a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.

A previous one by Survation had the Tories on zero MPs in the capital, with Professor Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics stressing it showed the party risking a “near death experience” in the city.

The new survey is marginally better for the Conservatives but will still make dismal reading for them.

Labour would win from the Tories a string of seats across the capital including Boris Johnson’s former constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as well as the Cities of London and Westminster so the Square Mile would have a Labour MP.

Other constituencies turning from blue to red would be Romford, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Bromley and Biggin Hill, Chingford and Woodford Green, Croydon South, Harrow East, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, as well as Finchley and Golders Green.

The Lib-Dems would pick up Wimbledon, as well as Carshalton and Wallington.

The changes would leave Labour with 65 MPs, with Tories five, and Lib-Dems five, with boundary changes leading to two new constituencies and some being renamed.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s new Godalming and Ash constituency in London’s commuter belt is also under serious threat.

The survey has the Lib-Dems ahead with 35 per cent of the vote to the Tories 32 per cent. 

Mr Hunt has signalled that the general election will be in the autumn so faces a battle over the next months to persuade more voters to back him.

The poll predicts the Lib-Dems would also take Esher and Walton on the outskirts of the capital from the Tories.

Former Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is currently MP for the constituency but is stepping down at the next election.

In the 12 Westminster by-elections that have been called since Mr Sunak became MP in October 2022, the Tories have won just one.

Steve Tuckwell held Uxbridge and South Ruislip for the Conservatives in July last year by fewer than 500 votes after running on an anti-Ulez ticket in Mr Johnson's former constituency.

But Mr Tuckwell is predicted to lose the seat to Labour, according to the YouGov poll.

The MRP model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from March 7-27.

The Reform Party, led by Richard Tice, was found to have a growing share of the voting intention.

It is not predicted to win any seats, and while it places second in 36 constituencies, it is not close to winning them.

The Lib Dems are meanwhile on course to grow their parliamentary comeback, with a projected win of 49 seats.

North of the border, YouGov estimates that Labour will be the largest party in Scotland.

They are projected to win 28 Scottish seats, followed by the SNP with 19.

The Green Party would continue to hold Brighton Pavilion according to the polling, the seat currently held by Caroline Lucas - who is standing down at the election.

The party is also a close second to Labour in the newly created Bristol Central seat.

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