The local election results show Labour has banished the demons of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn’s time as leader, while the Conservatives have badly misjudged the mood of voters by focusing on culture war issues, according to the party leader, Keir Starmer.
In a bullish assessment he is due to give the shadow cabinet, the Labour leader will accuse the Tories of ignoring voters’ real concerns. “The NHS trumps woke every day of the week,” he will say.
His assessment comes as Rishi Sunak faces what is likely to be a bruising return to the political fray after Thursday’s local elections and the mini-respite of the coronation weekend.
With the Conservatives having lost about 1,000 council seats across England and Labour the biggest party in local government for the first time in two decades, Sunak is already facing calls from some MPs for a change in direction, following similar complaints from ousted councillors.
The Liberal Democrats have pledged to table an immediate no-confidence motion against Sunak when the Commons resumes. Although this is unlikely to be voted on, let alone won, it will add to the wider sense of an open season against the government.
In comments briefed in advance, the Labour leader will tell the shadow cabinet the party’s 500-plus extra councillors and 22 new councils “showed that the country was desperate for change”.
While also warning against complacency, he will add: “The fact that Labour won in all parts of the country was a sign of the strides we have made. People who turned away from us during the Corbyn years and the Brexit years are coming back.
“But there is understandably a lot of scepticism about politics out there and now we need to go from reassurance to hope. We need to show that we will be a big reforming government bringing hope of a better life for working people.”
In a rare direct mention of culture war issues, increasingly seen by Sunak and his party as a means to attack Labour, Starmer will stress his belief that the Conservatives have miscalculated by appearing to focus more on such subjects than on core policies like health and the cost of living.
“The Tories are doing too little, too late to repair the damage they have done to the NHS,” he will say. “The NHS trumps woke every day of the week.”
The precise extent of Labour success in the local elections across 230 councils in England remains up for some debate, despite making big gains from the Conservatives in the north of England and the Midlands, and taking bellwether southern councils like Plymouth, Swindon and Medway.
National extrapolations of Labour’s 35% vote share suggest it would most likely deliver a hung parliament, with Starmer’s party the biggest in the Commons, rather than giving it an outright majority.
However, this is based on a vote where the Liberal Democrats took 20% of the vote and added 400-plus councillors, and the Greens made significant gains, with a percentage of the support for both parties likely to switch to Labour in a general election.
Starmer will stress to his shadow ministers that “the hardest part lies ahead”, and emphasise the need to show voters policies that demonstrate a commitment to change.
Those policies, however, are largely yet to be outlined, beyond some pledges on housing, with Starmer so far focusing on self-styled and generally vague “missions” in areas such as the NHS, education and clean energy.
Sunak faces more intense pressure as a result of the poor local election showing, with criticism of his abandonment of housebuilding targets and some MPs grumbling that his post-vote reaction of simply reiterating existing policies risks making him look out of touch.
While the scale of the losses were worse than the party’s deliberate gloomy pre-poll predictions, Sunak seems unlikely to face any sort of leadership challenge from a party already bruised by two changes of leader since the last election.
One minor headache looming, however, is the inaugural conference next weekend of the fringe if heavily pro-Boris Johnson Conservative Democratic Organisation, which aims to return more power to Tory grassroots.
Its gathering in Bournemouth will hear speeches from former cabinet ministers Jacob Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel, as well as other promised MPs.
