More or less every time you turned on the radio or opened a newspaper in recent days government minister was there, warning gloomily of a “tough night” for the Conservatives in the local elections. They were not wrong. But just how tough is the big question to come for Rishi Sunak.
Divining UK-wide political lessons from early results in low-turnout elections from an arbitrary selection of areas across only England is, of course, hugely difficult, which is where the work of the party media spinners comes in.
But one thing is already clear, even with just a fraction of the 8,000-plus seats up for grabs across 230 councils so far decided, by any normal political metric this is shaping up to be another electoral kicking for the Conservatives.
The last time these seats were contested in 2019, Theresa May was at the nadir of her Brexit woes, weeks from announcing her departure from Downing Street, and her party lost more than 1,300 seats. To lose even more – and it could be considerably more – is quite a feat.
If you are a Conservative MP worried about the next general election, the results thus far will bring two causes for concern. The first is that Labour appears to be doing what is required: regaining control in bellwether councils like Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent, and on course to take Medway.
Conservative spinners, and anxious Keir Starmer-sceptical Labour MPs, will note that so far the projected Labour vote share lead over the Tories is about eight percentage points, not the 10 billed by some as the margin needed to be confident of a general election majority.
This figure could well change, but expect it to be raised repeatedly, even though a much better metric will be academic extrapolations of what the results would mean as a national vote share, due before the weekend.
However, what will also alarm many Conservatives are the signs of very significant Liberal Democrat gains in their affluent heartlands, the so-called blue wall, often home to senior Tory MPs.
Losing control of Windsor and Maidenhead, the base of one Theresa May, is deeply symbolic, and looks likely to be followed by strong Lib Dem wins in commuter-belt areas represented in parliament by other big-name MPs including Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and John Redwood.
Another, albeit smaller, pincer movement on Conservative councils is taking place with the Greens, which expect to win a decent number of seats, often against Tory opponents.
Even if general election losses against Labour could be limited, and that remains on optimistic view, if the Conservatives then lost 20 MPs to the Lib Dems they would be condemned to opposition.
The war of opinion and spin has only just begun, and you can expect Sunak’s allies to insist Starmer has had a poor night if the Conservatives lose anything much less than 1,000 seats, the Tories’ deliberately high expectations management projection.
But even as they repeat the Conservative HQ media lines, Sunak’s MPs are unlikely to be reassured. Some of those giving interviews overnight have already sought to punt the blame on to Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, seeking to protect the prime minister from the damage.
This argument has only so much force. Sunak has been in No 10 for six months, and was billed as the man to not just steady the Conservative ship but to turn around its fortunes, with a general election likely to be only 18 months away.
There is additionally a more visceral and spin-resistant impact of significant losses. Councillors are a party’s most diligent ground troops and information-gatherers. MPs know them well, generally like and respect them, and mourn their departure.
Every loss is one fewer person to deliver general election leaflets, explain local worries and, perhaps even more importantly, provide the implicit message that the Conservatives have a stake in that particular town or city.
Losing hundreds every local election cycle, however much you explain in advance that this will happen, is simply not sustainable.
