The Conservative Party could lose all its recently-gained seats in the North East if a general election were held tomorrow, a new poll suggests.
New analysis by YouGov claims the Tories are currently on track for large-scale losses in key battleground seats if nothing changes before voters next head to the polls. The research firm estimates that, of 88 key swing seats (those that were either gained from Labour in 2019 or are currently head by the ruling party with a margin of less than 15 points), just three would stay in Conservative hands if a vote were held now.
Among the predicted losses would be the much-celebrated gains for Boris Johnson's party in the North East: Blyth Valley, North West Durham, Darlington, Redcar, Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland. All six were seen as shock defeats for the Labour Party when they changed hands in 2019, part of the fall of the so-called 'Red Wall'.
The win in Blyth Valley for Tory Candidate Ian Levy marked the start of a night of shock losses for Labour - the constituency was the third in the country to declare and the first to dramatically switch hands. But now pollsters claim the key seat could return to red.
It's estimated it would see one of the biggest swings of the seats examined if a vote were held today, with Labour going from two points behind the Conservatives to 12 ahead.
The smallest Labour lead among the North East seats was predicted in Bishop Auckland. The seat was claimed by Conservative Dehenna Davison in 2019 with a lead of 18 points over Labour - Labour is now predicted a one-point lead, but as this is within five percentage points it's considered to be within a 'margin of error' and hence much less certain.
Overall, the poll predicts better fortunes for the Conservatives in the North East than in the the South or East of England, where their share of the vote is predicted to fall by 13 and 14 points respectively compared to Labour. Nonetheless, in North East seats claimed by the Tories in 2019 which were previously held by Labour, the Conservatives are expected to see their votes fall by 10 points.
However, YouGov associate director Patrick English noted there was "a lot of uncertainty around these figures".
He said: "The next election is of course not scheduled for another two years, and the boundaries on which it will be fought are currently planned to change. What’s more, no fewer than 25 battleground constituencies are currently forecasted to be won by a margin of less than five percentage points – well inside what we would consider a ‘margin of error’ for an exercise of this nature."
The poll was based on interviews with more than 15,045 voters across England between May 19 and 27, with constituency-level forecasts estimated using a method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 general elections. And while plenty could change before voters next head to the polls, it suggests the North East's newest MPs may not be guaranteed a long stay in their roles.
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