The Conservative UK government has faced a tumultuous few days with the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss, accusations of MPs being bullied, and cabinet ministers resigning.
Current polls suggest Labour is 29% ahead of the Conservatives but one local election expert is now predicting the Conservatives could lose every seat in Wirral Council next year if Labour continues to maintain its polling lead nationally.
Dr David Jeffery said this could include current Tory strongholds like West Kirby and Heswall going to Labour and the Lib Dems, areas that have never voted for another party.
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This will have huge consequences for the local authority which previously elected councillors in thirds in three out of every four years. Instead next year, Wirral Council will be holding all out elections with those elected as councillors for four years.
Before, smaller parties could target certain seats with fewer areas in play but now Labour, the Conservatives, Greens and the Lib Dems will be running candidates in 66 wards. The Conservatives are currently the opposition party in Wirral with 24 councillors to Labour’s 26. 16 other councillors are made up of the Greens and the Lib Dems.
Dr Jeffery is a lecturer in politics at the University of Liverpool and analyses local election data in Merseyside. He said he sees similarities to 1973 when Liverpool moved to all-out elections.
That election saw the Conservatives lose 22 seats due to the unpopularity of the Heath government. Afterwards, Dr Jeffery said the Conservatives never recovered.
Dr Jeffery said: “It wouldn’t be surprising next year if the polling stays as it is and the Greens continue to be as popular locally, there’s not a single Conservative win in Wirral, just any seats at all. The majorities of the Conservatives in 2022 weren’t very big and under current polling, they’d all go.
“You can see a situation with the current polling where Labour wins a few votes but a lot of Tories stay at home or go Green or Lib Dem and then the Conservatives’ massive majority in their seats are kicked away.”
Dr Jeffery said the Conservatives could even lose in places like West Kirby, adding: “if you look at it, there’s very few places except maybe West Kirby where the Conservatives are significantly far ahead.
“It would take a big shot but even there, they’re only about 15% ahead so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.”
In Wirral, local issues could come into play such as divisions over the future of Hoylake Beach, the Leverhulme planning applications, and potential cuts the council may have to make next year as it struggles with a rising budget gap.
Dr Jeffery said national politics doesn’t always filter down to a local level with the Greens potentially able to make gains if budget cuts affect Labour’s chances. However he doesn’t see that helping the Conservatives but “you can’t rule anything out.”
The Greens could become a “protest vote” taking votes from both Labour and the Conservatives but given Labour’s polling lead is currently so high, Dr Jeffery expects Labour to retake some seats.
Dr Jeffery said: “Those seats traditionally dominated by Labour are where Labour, if they have to be worried, should be worried about.”
Some Conservatives may still hold on by distancing themselves from the national party though. Dr Jeffery said: “Maybe there’s a personal vote, maybe it’s the case Tom Anderson, the leader, might hang on and maybe the party will improve nationally in the polls but that’s quite an assumption.”
Dr Jeffery said this becomes less likely if there is no general election between now and May 2023 with voters using the vote to “air their anger at the national government” adding, “it’s quite clear the Conservatives are in trouble.”
He said: “There’s a clear path where the Tories don’t win a single one because Conservative voters remain at home or are so annoyed they vote for another party. That’s fine when you elect in thirds but when you have all-outs, you could have a Liverpool-style wipeout in the Wirral.
“That map of the Wirral, that map of two halves, will probably have a lot less blue and a lot more red.”
In response to the comments made about the Conservatives’ electoral chances in Wirral, their leader Tom Anderson said: “As someone who won their first election by just four votes, I never, ever take anyone’s vote for granted, no politician ever should. I know each and every Conservative candidate will be working hard between now and the local elections to earn every single vote.
“Voters in Wirral know Labour can’t be trusted to spend taxpayer’s money wisely. Whether it’s paying half a million pounds to developers to get out of the Hoylake Golf Resort folly, £7m for the Vue cinema or spending millions on over budget cycle lanes no one uses, every pound Labour councillors waste is a pound less spent on the vital services our residents depend on.”
The next elections in Wirral will happen in May 2023. You can register to vote here.
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