For some Tory candidates, despair is the appropriate mindset in the final days of the election campaign. Others are angry. Many remain disbelieving of polls that point to a Labour landslide. Ahead of polling day, there are already those worried about a swift leadership election lurching the party further to the right. A certain gallows humour has also kicked in. “You know what they say,” said one candidate. “It’s always darkest before it’s completely pitch black.”
As Tory candidates complete a torrid campaign that began with Rishi Sunak’s rain-soaked announcement of a July election, the full range of emotions is on display among them. For most candidates who spoke to the Observer last week, Sunak’s decision to leave D-Day commemorations early came up as the main frustration, even eclipsing the election date betting scandal.
However, there was also a hope – or belief in some cases – that the kind of wipeout that some polls are suggesting was not reflected on their constituency doorsteps. Many are pinning hopes on undecided voters recoiling at the prospect of a large Labour majority. “There’s genuine dissonance between what I feel like at 7.30pm when I finish for the day and what I feel like at 10pm, when I read the first editions,” said one former cabinet minister. “It doesn’t look as bad as the polls would suggest. This idea of 400-plus seats for Labour – it’s not what it feels like on the ground. But maybe we’re all wrong.”
Tory candidates are not the only ones latching on to the prospects of a large Labour majority as their main weapon in winning back voters. The most senior figures in the Tory campaign also believe they can limit the electoral damage with a “buyer’s remorse” strategy – telling voters that handing Labour a big majority will give Keir Starmer years, possibly decades, in power. The last few days will see Conservatives hammer away at the idea of an unchecked Labour administration in power.
“You want election campaigns to be about controlling the question people are answering,” said a Tory campaign source. “The question ‘do you want Labour to have a supermajority?’ is coming up and is quite pertinent.”
That message will get louder in the coming days. Andrew Mitchell, the deputy foreign secretary, told the Observer: “What I say to people is ‘look, polls aren’t always right, but if these polls are correct there’s going to be a Labour landslide. Do you think that’s good for the government of the country – a supermajority for a party which really doesn’t know what it wants to do?’ They’re so frightened of losing that their tactics are to get as close as possible to the Conservative party. I think that is quite duplicitous.
“It isn’t a byelection. What is decided on Thursday and announced on Friday morning, will be the next five years. You can’t get off the train halfway through those five years.”
A senior campaign source added: “For the next few days, you can expect ministers to be telling people not to buy the idea that [a big Labour majority] is a foregone conclusion. There’s a big difference with a Labour majority that’s completely unaccountable. You probably won’t have it for five years. You’ll have it for 10, 15, 20 years.”
While some regard it as a desperate tactic, it is certainly true that huge variations remain in the projections of MRP polls, which put the number of Tory seats from anywhere between 50 and almost 200. The big question is whether the Tory vote really will fall disproportionately in their safer seats, causing the meltdown some polls predict.
In reality, there has been a clear retrenchment by the Tory campaign. In the final weeks, more resources have poured into seats that should be safe in normal times. MPs enjoying majorities of more than 15,000 are among those reporting they have been given additional resources.
There is also a frustration about the decision to call the early election, which appeared to take much of the party’s apparatus by surprise. “Just look at the number of candidates we hadn’t selected yet,” said one Tory candidate, who said more than 150 had yet to be selected when it was announced. Another said: “We apparently had time to go down the bookies, but not select candidates.”
Sunak’s team in No 10 are being blamed for making such a big call, against the advice of cabinet ministers and, bizarrely, the strategist drafted in to run the Tory campaign – Isaac Levido. “Yes, we were unprepared, but it’s also the most catastrophic, inexperienced team running around with unbelievable arrogance,” said one senior Tory. “No 10 is trying to back run the campaign. In a campaign, you’d normally expect the professional party people to take over. But they’ve tried to run everything.”
Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, is facing anger for pushing for an early poll. “He’s somebody who really advocated for the early election and he’s been absent from this whole campaign,” said a frustrated Tory.
To keep up morale, senior figures inside the Tory campaign have been heeding the warnings of Labour’s 2010 campaign. Some veterans of that effort believe that had they been more confident at the outset, it might have altered what ended up as a close and messy result. “That has kept us motivated,” said one official. “We’ve stuck together. People here are in it because they believe in it.”
Inevitably, some senior figures are already thinking about the aftermath, particularly the prospect of the party drifting further to the right in the wake of a heavy defeat. Candidates said trade secretary Kemi Badenoch had clearly emerged as the frontrunner for the leadership, wooing the liberal wing with her dismissal of the prospect of Nigel Farage joining the Tories – while getting rave reviews on Tory WhatsApp groups for hitting back at actor David Tennant’s claim that she should “shut up”.
Amid the prospect of another contest in which the Tory membership picks a radical figure like Liz Truss, allies of Sunak are urging him to stick around after a defeat, to ensure a calm contest. They compare it to Michael Howard, who stayed on after defeat to oversee a leadership race that led to David Cameron being installed.
“Rishi should stay on for at least six months,” said a senior minister. “He will hate it. I don’t think he’ll be able to bear to do it. But I think he’ll actually be very good at opposition, because he’s so forensic. Rushing into a 1997-style leadership election would be horrendous. I’ve got grave concerns about that. I hope he’s got the strength to stay. He will know what Michael Howard did and he’ll maybe think about that.”
Unsurprisingly, there is out and out despair among some. “I don’t think there’s any hope, particularly,” said one Tory. “Expectations are so low that if it’s not [Tory MPs] in the 70s or 60s, people might see it as positive.” A minister said Sunak had done as well as possible, having followed “a comedian and a nut job” as prime minister. Others, seemingly resigned to their fate, have entered a more philosophical state. Indeed, some are positively poetic. Asked about how they saw their prospects as this week’s the election approaches, one minister simply replied with the words of Philip Larkin.
“It seems, just now, To be happening so very fast; Despite all the land left free; For the first time I feel somehow; That it isn’t going to last.”
