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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Business
Gene Marks

Top US economists are often wrong – should we trust their predictions?

A Macy's department store in Washington,
A Macy's department store in Washington, Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

They’re Ivy-League educated, brilliant academic minds and experienced in the ways of markets, governments, data and statistics. Many have access to information not readily available to the general public. They attend meetings, forums and conferences with each other. They write books, review papers and oversee research. They are our nation’s top economists. And they oftentimes get it wrong. Very wrong.

Both the treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, and Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, were wrong about inflation, having first called rising prices “transitory” after Covid disrupted the entire world’s supply chain. Nobel winner Paul Krugman publicly admitted his mistakes. They were not alone.

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