The U.S. presidential election is tomorrow. It is the most consequential election in a year of very consequential elections. At the time of writing, some 72 million Americans have cast their ballots—about 45% of the total that will be submitted. We are trailing the 2020 tally, but well ahead of 2016. This is America’s democracy in action.
The polls show a neck-and-neck race at the national level and in the seven key swing states. It is hard to say who holds the lead. At Ipsos, we give a slight edge to former President Donald Trump but have a low level of conviction about the outcome given the mixed signals. Such a close race is the clearest manifestation of a divided and polarized America—it's a tale of two Americas.
