One of the only pollsters to predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election somewhat correctly has stated that he sees a variety of challenges lying ahead for President-elect Donald Trump, further predicting positive outcomes for the Democratic Party.
American statistician Nate Silver took to his newsletter, Silver Bulletin, to mention struggles he believes Trump will face during his second term.
"And like Bush, Trump will probably have a challenging second term," Silver said. "Mind you, I wouldn't count on this being a happy time for Democrats. Trump has a lot of unchecked power and a 6-3 Supreme Court majority."
"But electorally speaking, these are the seeds out of which comebacks are made," he continued.
Silver, who ran thousands of simulations playing out the 2024 presidential election to determine which candidate would be more likely to win, ultimately predicted the outcome to a much more accurate degree than many of his fellow pollsters. In late October, Silver published an opinion piece in the New York Times informing his audience that he felt Trump was going to win.
"So OK, I'll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats," he wrote.
Though Silver continued to reiterate that the race was incredibly close and both candidates had a 50% chance of winning, he was still able to predict the outcome better than figures such as historian Allan Lichtman, who believed Vice President Harris would emerge victorious in November.
In his Tuesday newsletter, Silver stated that he believed Trump would be an unpopular President due to a variety of reasons, including the unpopularity of his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, the likelihood of his tariff plan contributing to inflation, the fact that he will be inheriting all of the foreign policy problems President Joe Biden faced and the general trend of incumbents struggling with their popularity amongst constituents.
"Thermostatic shifts in public opinion will begin to favor Democrats again. I don't expect wokeness to make a comeback, but things like anti-immigrant sentiment may decrease, especially if Trump tries to carry out mass deportations," wrote Silver.
Silver, who argued that this was a "fairly ordinary" election, further noted that Harris lost less ground in swing states specifically than she did nationally. While a 5.9-point national swing toward Trump was observed, most swing states swung by a smaller percentage.
"Wisconsin swung by just 1.5 points toward Trump, North Carolina by 2.0, Georgia by 2.4, Pennsylvania by 3.2 and Michigan by 4.2. (Arizona and Nevada were close to the national swing, however)," wrote Silver.
Ultimately, Silver closed out his newsletter with advice for the Democratic Party regarding the thresholds of their voter bases, and that votes cannot be taken for granted from any identity group.
"What normally happens is the losing party rebounds — so there's always the next cycle for Democrats to look forward to," he concluded.
Originally published by Latin Times.
