CHICAGO — Dr. Allison Arwady, the commissioner for the Chicago Department of Public Health, predicted Friday that Chicago will move back into a medium COVID-19 risk level in the coming weeks.
She also warned at a news conference Friday of a potential “triple combo” of illnesses among children between COVID-19, the flu and acute respiratory illnesses, rates of which are surging past levels seen over the last two years.
Chicago is still at the low community level for COVID-19, with between 15 and 20 Chicagoans hospitalized every day and three to five deaths each week. COVID-19 community levels are a measure created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help communities determine what preventive measures need to be taken in an area based on the number of new cases and hospitalizations. Chicago and the suburbs moved into a low level for the first time since May at the end of September.
But vaccination rates for the bivalent booster, designed specifically to combat infections of the dominant omicron variant, are low. Less than 15% of Chicagoans who are fully vaccinated and eligible to receive the booster have gotten the shot, according to data from CDPH. She said she is especially concerned for Latino and Black Chicagoans, “who have borne the brunt of the COVID pandemic and who are the least protected headed into this fall and winter.” Less than 11% of eligible Black residents and less than 8% of eligible Latino residents have received the updated booster.
CDPH has found that the booster shots have made a difference in the rates of hospitalizations. People who are unvaccinated are 2.2 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than people who are fully vaccinated. But that hospitalization likelihood increases to 2.7 times when comparing people who are unvaccinated with people who are boosted.
While Cook County is not one of the 2% of counties in the United States that are at high risk for COVID-19 as of this week, Arwady worries that could change.
“We avoid a high COVID level by keeping people out of the hospital, and we keep people out of the hospital by getting up to date on COVID-19 vaccines,” Arwady said.
But what Arwady is most worried about is whether a new variant of concern will emerge this winter, she said.
“If you hear us starting to talk about the next letter of the Greek alphabet, that marks a major change and a real concern,” she said.
She encouraged people who hadn’t received past boosters to still get the latest shot.
“It is designed to look ahead instead of back,” she said. “It is designed to help protect you against whatever is coming this fall and winter.”
Arwady also recommends getting the vaccine and booster now while it is still free with federal funding. She said most likely by the first quarter of 2023, the shots will come with a cost, and COVID-19 will be treated like any other disease, where if you are not insured, “you’re kind of out of luck.” CDPH plans to use city funds to close that gap as much as possible, she said.
“I think it is an unfortunate reality in this country, that we do not always consider health care to be a human right and that we often consider it to be something that people should pay for,” Arwady said.
While the public health department is expecting a winter COVID-19 surge, Arwady also warned of rising rates of acute respiratory illnesses among children, which includes flu, COVID-19 and the rising incidence of RSV, which stands for respiratory syncytial virus.
RSV presents as a cold and is usually mild. But in kids under 1, it is the leading cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis, which is inflammation of part of the lung. Babies born prematurely or with heart or lung conditions are also at a high risk for RSV.
“There are days when we only have a single number of pediatric ICU beds across all of our hospitals, and that’s before the respiratory virus season really kicks in,” Arwady said.
Unlike COVID-19 and flu, there is no vaccine for RSV and only one treatment, which involves monthly visits to the doctor.
At the end of the news conference, Arwady and the Rev. Chris Harris, pastor of Bright Star Church in Bronzeville, each got shots. Arwady received her flu vaccine and said that getting the bivalent booster and flu shot at the same time is encouraged. She did not receive her bivalent booster then because she said she recently recovered from COVID-19 at the end of August.
“The CDC says you don’t have to, but you can wait up to three months, so I’ll be getting my COVID booster in November,” she said.
Harris received the bivalent booster. Since the pandemic started, Harris said he has buried 150 people whom he loved and cared about who died of COVID-19
“I could not even imagine what it would be like to go back or backwards,” Harris said. “The only thing we need to be thinking about is going forward.”
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