Morgan Stanley chief equity analyst Mike Wilson has been saying for years the U.S. was in a “rolling recession” when economists were seeing nothing but GDP growth. Since April, he’s been declaring a “rolling recovery,” with the early stages of an economic boom working its way through various sectors in the economy.
His optimism has been borne out by an economy that has surprised to the upside consistently throughout 2025, with skeptics warning the impact of tariffs and wider macroeconomic uncertainty would surely show up soon in the data. Third-quarter earnings are giving Wilson a little bit of pause, he wrote on Monday: It’s not that he thinks his thesis is wrong, he’s just noting investors are jittery as they digest the state of play. “This remains an out-of-consensus view from our conversations.”
