Economic headlines have been grim recently. The jobs report from July shattered the narrative that the economy of 2025 was strong, revising previous figures downward and revealing something close to an 80% collapse in hiring, even as inflation crept upwards and layoffs rolled. August was another bad one, with just 22,000 jobs added. But what if that was the bottom of a secret, “rolling” recession in place for nearly three years, dating back to 2022? That’s what one of the top minds on Wall Street thinks.
Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson says the August report is actually more confirmation of his primary thesis that goes back several years. “Central to our view,” Wilson’s team wrote in a note published on the morning of September 8, “is the notion that the economy has been much weaker for many companies and consumers over the past 3 years than what the headline economic statistics like nominal GDP or employment suggest.”
