Fantasy football season is just around the corner, and that means it’s time to start getting excited about this year’s breakouts!
Below are five players I have my eyes on, all of which are still values at their average draft position (ADP) according to how high I value their ceiling. These are not sleepers or deep sleepers (that article is coming soon), but players that are primed for their best seasons yet. I will be leaving each of my drafts with at least one of these five players. I hope you will, too.
Without further ado, here are five players I expect to have breakout seasons in 2023.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
Lawrence made a massive leap forward in his second season in the NFL and his first under head coach Doug Pederson. From 2021 to 2022, Lawrence more than doubled his touchdowns (12 to 25), cut his interceptions in half (17 down to 8) and improved his completion percentage (59.6% to 69.3%). His passer rating jumped from 71.9 to 95.2. Lawrence tied for fourth among QBs with five rushing touchdowns in 2022, and he had five top-10 fantasy finishes in his last eight games of the season. All of his favorite weapons are returning (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram) and the Jaguars will see superstar wideout Calvin Ridley make his Jacksonville debut this season. The threat of Travis Etienne and rookie Tank Bigsby in the run game will keep defenses guessing, and the first overall 2021 draft pick should take another major step forward in 2023.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
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The reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year logged 1,103 yards and four touchdowns with a combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco Mike White and Chris Streveler under center. To say three-time MVP Aaron Rodgers is an upgrade is an understatement. None of the Jets' quarterbacks completed more than 60% of their passes in 2022. Rodgers completed 65% of his while playing with a broken thumb for most of the season. From Weeks 8-17, Wilson averaged just over five targets, 78 yards per game and 15.2 yards per catch. Rodgers should look to the talented sophomore often. He’s also due for positive touchdown regression.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
All Jeudy needs is slightly better quarterback play to finally break out, and he should get that this season with Sean Payton taking over the reins as coach of the Broncos. Jeudy was affected the least by poor QB play in 2022, accumulating just shy of 1,000 yards across 15 games played. He did that with only 78 catchable targets (35th). Russell Wilson still maintained skill with the deep ball, ranking seventh in the league on deep passes according to NextGen Stats, and Jeudy averaged 14.51 yards per catch and a dominant 5.96 yards after the catch in 2022. Throw in the recent loss of Tim Patrick (again), and Jeudy should only go up from here.
Chris Olave, WR, Saints
Much like Wilson and Jeudy, Olave should benefit from improved QB play with Derek Carr now under center for the Saints. Olave saw a whopping 38.6% of the air yards for the Saints last year (fifth in NFL) and his 1,686 air yards ranked sixth in the NFL. Olave saw 119 targets in 2022, and his 14.17 aDOT ranked first among receivers with 100 targets or more. That skill set should match up well with Carr, who ranked eighth in the NFL in deep passing according to NextGen Stats. He’s due for positive touchdown regression, and even if Michael Thomas remains healthy, Olave should have a true breakout season in New Orleans.
Miles Sanders, RB, Panthers
I’m going to get pushback from Michael Fabiano and Bill Enright on this one, but I’m planting my flag. Sanders will have his best season yet with the Panthers. Sanders rushed for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns last season with the Eagles, but he was barely used in the receiving game. That should change in Carolina, where Sanders reunites with running backs coach Duce Staley. When working under Staley in his 2019 rookie season in Philadelphia, Sanders had 50 catches for 509 yards. Sanders’s receiving ability was underutilized in Nick Sirianni’s system, but it should be a plus under Frank Reich in Carolina, where he has the opportunity to be a three-down back. In his NFL career, Sanders has been one of the most efficient runners in the league, averaging five yards per carry across four seasons. This season, he won’t have Jalen Hurts vulturing his touchdowns, either. We saw D’onta Foreman have good fantasy numbers behind this o-line that ranked ninth in adjusted line yards for 2022, and Sanders is a much better runner. Carolina inked Sanders to a four-year deal, and he’s the only RB in this system that has already proven himself to the coaching staff. Especially at his current ADP, I’m all in.
