One of the more underrated and hard-to-calculate impacts on teams is when they choose to change their coaching staff. It may be a clean sweep or just a coordinator or two, but it does change how the offense works. Add in the change in player personnel and an offense may drastically differ from one season to the next.
2024 is yet another season of change. To date, we have eight new head coaches (1 in 4), 14 new offensive coordinators and 15 new defensive coordinators – nearly half of the league. To further show how much change is always in play, consider that only three offensive coordinators have been in that role for more than two years.
Basically, every three years there’s been an almost clean sweep of coordinators. Some are released and accept position coaching jobs elsewhere or a lucky few (or this year eight) step up into head coaching roles on the premise that success at one level means success at the next, however incorrect that typically proves.
Let’s take a quick look at the three teams that will have the best shot at a positive impact on fantasy football from their changes.
Atlanta Falcons
2023 Atlanta team rankings
Arthur Smith was the head coach for the last three seasons and each time the Falcons ended 7-10. They’ve had seven wins in five of their last six years, so there’s been no progress since 2017. They’ve been below average with the pass and it worsened after Matt Ryan left in 2022. The overall stats from the running game were very good – Top-5 in almost every category. But the inability to pass the ball left the Falcons unable to keep up with most opponents. Today’s NFL may be pass-happy, but the Falcons never got that memo rated No. 32 dead last in every wide receiver measurement.
2023 Atlanta player stats
The lack of success passing to wide receivers was egregious since they drafted Drake London (1.08) as the first wideout selected in 2022. They made Kyle Pitts (1.04) the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. Then they made Bijan Robinson (1.08) the top running back selected in 2023. That’s expensive draft capital for elite stars. The offense has three skill players who were the best in their position coming out of college.
But the frustration for fantasy owners, and to a lesser degree Falcon fans, was Arthur Smith’s insistence to mix-and-match with running backs and tight ends, and not throw much to his star wideout. Robinson came out of Texas as the consummate workhorse back. But he only ranked No. 19 in carries despite playing in all 17 games.
Kyle Pitts opened with 1,026 yards as a rookie but disappointed the last two years. He injured his PCL and MCL in 2022 and was still trying to get past that last year. But Arthur Smith’s offense took three collegiate superstars and seemingly underused each. Or maybe relying on the third-round quarterback was complicit in the disappointment.
New: HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson
New head coach Raheem Morris was primarily a defensive coordinator for the Rams these last three years, and he was the head coach for the Buccaneers in 2009-2011 when that team went 3-13, 10-6, and 4-12. Those were the first three years for Josh Freeman at quarterback, the start of LeGarrette Blount, the disappointment of Kellen Winslow, and a few years of Mike Williams (the first one, not the current Charger) playing over his head.
But that was a decade ago. Morris was most recently directing the Rams defense including during their 2021 Super Bowl win. He tabbed Zac Robinson as the new offensive coordinator and he was the QB coach for the Rams these last three years, and their WR coach in 2020. So he has Sean McVay for an influence and more excitedly, has been immersed in the Rams’ passing game for the last four years. Granted, he didn’t make Matthew Stafford, but he’s been involved with one of the better passing offenses.
The talent is here. There is star power at every skill position other than quarterback which the Falcons are sure to address this year. Adding in their above-average offensive line and there’s the potential for major fantasy points if Robinson can get the right quarterback and optimize the talent in receivers and rushers that the Falcons already possess. It is promising that this run-first offense can change to make better use of all players and pump up the passing game that languished with Desmond Ridder and play calling that left the offense far too conservative.
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Los Angeles Chargers team rankings
This team is a little harder to unwind and determine exactly where they are at in terms of players and talent. The passing offense threw a lot of passes thanks to their own defense constantly giving up points to the opposition and turning most games into aerial war as the Chargers tried to catch up. What was odd last year was that they were the worst in the NFL in rushing yards, despite employing OC Kellen Moore who directed the No. 1 backfield in Dallas in 2022.
The failures of the Chargers were related to several key injuries that stripped the passing game of their usual production and the rushing effort hadn’t been that much anyway, but the backfield ended up with the worst rushing yardage in the NFL and then shockingly fell from being No. 1 in all categories pertaining to running back receiving to only 19th in receptions and yards to the position and only one receiving touchdown. The Chargers fell from 10-7 in 2022 to only 5-12.
2023 Chargers player stats
The offense underperformed across the board. There was a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore and that may partially explain why the free-fall drop in passing to running backs, but the entire offense struggled with injuries to the point that almost none of the original starters remained by season’s end. Newly drafted wideout Quentin Johnson (1.21) was the second wideout drafted last April but was a bust as a rookie and yet the only skill player that did not miss any games.
Keenan Allen performed as well as ever until his heel injury. Mike Williams was lost almost immediately to a torn ACL. The biggest head-scratcher on the team was Austin Ekeler whose rapid decline gutted the offensive punch, particularly while they kept losing receivers. Both Ekeler and Josh Kelley are free agents, so a makeover in the backfield is possible.
New: HC Jim Harbaugh, OC Greg Roman
Outgoing head coach Brandon Staley was not popular. And the impact of a coach that lost the locker room cannot be understated. He was released during the season and the Chargers sputtered to a five-game losing streak to end the year. The Chargers failed expectations in every category, from a defense that became a major liability, to a passing game that lost nearly every player along the way, to a disgruntled running back playing behind a bad offensive line and ruining whatever goodwill he had created as a top back for a few years.
Harbaugh comes in having been a head coach for the last 20 years between college stints in San Diego, Stanford, and most recently Michigan, plus four seasons leading the 49ers (2011-2014). He was never worse than 8-8 in San Francisco and three years featured at least 11 wins including 2012 when he lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens.
The ex-quarterback has his imprint on all facets of the team including the offense, though new OC Greg Roman will run the offense. Harbaugh’s time with the 49ers included seasons with Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, and late-career Anquan Boldin.
Roman brings extensive experience as an offensive coordinator. He was the offensive coordinator for the 49ers during Harbaugh’s four-year tenure there. He held the same position for the Bills (2015-2016) and was last with the Ravens for the last six years, including three as their offensive coordinator. He stepped down after the 2022 season and now switches brothers since he coached with John Harbaugh in Baltimore and now moves to Los Angeles to rejoin Jim Harbaugh.
He spent three years with Lamar Jackson and tried to improve him as a passer while not losing the special things he did as a rusher. That had mixed results and Todd Monken stepped in as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator with better results in 2023. But Jackson is singular in the NFL, and the offense was devoted to finding how best to use him. It is notable that under Roman in Baltimore that they always employed a committee backfield with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards (to name but two).
But in his time in San Francisco, Roman used Frank Gore as a 250+ carry back. He again had a rushing quarterback in Kaepernick but won’t have that facet to explore with Justin Herbert who returns from a broken finger but hasn’t been that much of a rusher. Herbert will be the best passer that he’s worked with.
Roman relied on Michael Crabtree heavily, as well as tight end Vernon Davis. What the offseason has to determine is what the backfield will be. It could be an all-new set of starters and unless one clearly outplays the others, a committee will almost certainly be relied on. Roman has been tied to two rushing quarterbacks but overall, he tries to optimize that the offense can do given the players. That advanced the 49ers to a Super Bowl in the past.
This team will probably be undervalued with the changes this year, but Justin Herbert brings elite passing into the equation and that always is a difference-maker.
Tennessee Titans
2023 Tennessee team rankings
The six-year reign of HC Mike Vrabel wound down with a 6-11 record with a defense that was always capable and often elite if only occasionally. But his offenses were always among the most conservative in the NFL with a great offensive line and a top-notch rushing offense. The Titans have not ranked highly in passing stats for many years and their identity has long been about defense and a sound run game regardless of the direction of the rest of the league.
They threw the fewest passes of any NFL team (302) and only managed 12 passing scores. They were unable to retake leads when they fell behind from the inability to compete through the air. That was challenge enough, but a rushing game that had been elite became average despite being No. 9 in rushing attempts. The offensive line that was once an apex blocking unit declined to being one of the worst.
With no real reason to expect a turnaround from the progressively worse team, they let Vrabel go.
2023 Titans player stats
The Titans started the season with Ryan Tannehill but he injured his ankle so they finished with 2.02 pick Will Levis as hopefully the next franchise quarterback and maybe one that might reach the lofty heights of being average as a Titan pass thrower.
Levis inherited a below-average batch of receivers, with 2022 rookie Treylon Burk (1.18) disappointing as did most rookie wideouts that year, despite being the heir-apparent to A.J. Brown. Burks underwhelmed again this year with only 16 catches in nine games. DeAndre Hopkins was the big acquisition and he did manage to clip 1,000 yards and score seven times to dominate the receiving but that was just three 100-yard performances and mostly moderate yardage and no score.
Henry had been a 1,500-yard rusher during most of Vrabel’s regime but he was injured in 2021, bounced back in 2022 (349-1538-13) and then slipped back to only 1,167 yards on 280 runs while never missing a game. Henry is a free agent this season and is expected to move on. Ryan Tannehill is also past his contract.
New: HC Brian Callahan
If you want a sign of change, look no further than new HC Brian Callahan. Under Mike Vrabel, the Titans wanted to win by running all over their opponent and then dominating with their defense. The upgrade to DeAndre Hopkins was needed and prevented the Titans’ passing game from dropping to historic lows. But Will Levis returns for his second season and this will be an entirely new offense and not just because Derrick Henry will be gone from the first time since 2016.
Callahan has been the offensive coordinator for the Bengals for the last five years. He was a QB coach for the Raiders and Lions for three years prior to landing in Cincinnati. His resume is all about passing offenses including all four seasons with Joe Burrow who has been a 4,500-yard, 35-touchdown quarterback when healthy.
Granted, Burrow was the 1.01 pick of 2020 and entered the league as the most coveted quarterback. Will Levis was the fourth quarterback selected last year but it isn’t entirely fair to evaluate him in the context of that conservative and marginally talented passing offense he had as a rookie. As with any team, the next year is all about who they keep and who they acquire.
Tyjae Spears showed some promise last season and is the apparent No. 1 back in Tennessee barring any player moves. The ex-Tulane back was the fifth running back selected (3.18), so he may have higher upside with Derrick Henry all but gone. The offensive line did no favors last year and would need to see improvement.
Callahan will get whatever he can from Levis who has 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins in his final contract year and Treylon Burks who entered the league as a coveted 6-3 receiver out of Arkansas who may be better than expected. He had injury issues and played in arguably one of the worst passing offenses in the league. That gets an upgrade from Callahan importing his effective passing offense from Cincy.
There’s plenty of changes on the team left to witness and that could have major impact. But the tougher challenge from a fantasy perspective is trying to unlearn just how conservative and Derrick Henry-centric the Titans have been, and rethink what the Titans can be.
