Real estate in Atlanta, Raleigh, North Carolina and Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to outperform most other metro areas in 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In a report released Tuesday, the organization ranked the metro area in its top 10 real estate markets to watch next year, all of which were in the South.
These were the top 10 markets:
1. Atlanta
2. Raleigh, N.C.
3. Dallas-Fort Worth
4. Fayetteville, Ark.
5. Greenville, S.C.
6. Charleston, S.C.
7. Huntsville, Ala.
8. Jacksonville, Fla.
9. San Antonio
10. Knoxville, Tenn.
Atlanta ranked No. 1 and was the only market that met all factors that NAR looked for in its markets to watch next year, such as having homes that are affordable for more than 20% of renters to buy, major tech companies opening offices in the region and fast population growth.
“Dallas-Fort Worth has experienced a growing influx of tech workers,” the report said, and it also mentioned the growing number of new startups in the area. “Not only is housing more affordable than nationally, but this area provides more options to buyers.”
Dallas-Fort Worth added 19,500 jobs in October, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Still, due to higher mortgage rates compared with last year and buyer affordability challenges, Dallas-Fort Worth home sales fell 30% from November 2021 to 2022, the sharpest decline since immediately after the Great Recession.
The median sale price of a single-family home dropped almost 9% from a record $435,000 in May and June to $396,500 in November, according to the latest housing market report from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.
San Antonio also ranked in NAR’s top 10 and was cited as being more affordable than other parts of Texas and having a growing number of tech workers. The qualifying income for a median-priced home is $85,000 in San Antonio vs. $130,000 in nearby Austin, according to NAR data.
The share of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. is at an all-time low due to the higher interest rates and home prices.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, forecasts that 4.78 million existing homes will sell in 2023, which would be a 6.8% decline from 5.13 million in 2022.
He expects home sales to decline 6.8% compared with 2022 and the median home price to reach $385,800, up just 0.3% from $384,500 in 2022.
“Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines,” Yun said.
However, he expects some California markets to be an exception. He said San Francisco is likely to see home prices drop 10% to 15%.
Yun predicts foreclosure rates will remain at historically low levels in 2023, less than 1% of all mortgages.
He said the U.S. GDP will grow by 1.3%, half the typical historical pace of 2.5%, and that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will settle at 5.7% as the Fed slows the pace of inflation-related rate hikes.
Yun also expects U.S. rent prices to rise 5% in 2023 after a 7% increase in 2022.
