This week, I met Debbie, Becky, Mark, Margaret, Ben, and Richard. They’re voters in the Red Wall constituency of Blackpool South, won by the Tories in 2019 for the first time since 1992. I met the six when I sat in on a focus group, representing all demographics and political opinions, to gauge current sentiment in the seat.
What I heard was fascinating and sad. Some of it was surprising, other bits a little shocking. Blackpool is the most deprived town in England, coming 435th out of 435.
Britain through its inhabitants’ eyes is not a view most of us down here in the capital’s media bubble often see, and even less often seek. But today is all about the Red Wall and towns like Blackpool, with the publication of the long-awaited Levelling Up White Paper.
And remember, whether or not we like the idea of our taxpayers’ money trundling up the A1 and M6, the 50-odd Tory gains in Labour’s former Red Wall still hold the next general election result in their hands.
We spoke about partygate first. There was deep frustration about Downing Street telling the country to lock down while ignoring the rules themselves.
Yet there wasn’t really the personal anger with Boris Johnson I expected, or with anyone else. Only two out of the six thought he should resign. Instead, there was a general sense of disillusionment.
“It should wind me up more, but it doesn’t,” said Mark, who works in IT support for the NHS. “I don’t expect any better from them. It’s all just a game for them isn’t it.”
Debbie, a teaching assistant, added: “They didn’t make a mistake. They just got caught out. It’s like I tell my children: be honest about it; at least that would get you more respect”.
So if partygate doesn’t have as dramatic an effect on voting patterns as some expect, it’s because it has all been priced in long ago.
Then the group were asked who they might prefer as PM instead of Boris. None of the current contenders registered at all. Margaret, a retired divorcee who lives with her sister-in-law, said: “I liked Starmer to begin with, but now I’ve turned against him”.
Only half knew the job Rishi Sunak does. And none of the six had any idea at all who Liz Truss is.
A longing did quickly emerge among the group though for “new blood”, with many agreeing with Ben, a counsellor in his forties, that “Parliament is just a bunch of old men”.
Debbie raised laughs all round when she said: “Maybe we should vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party, because we’ve already got them in.”
It was the group’s feelings on their own economic prospects that struck me most, coupled with what they described as a total lack of fresh opportunity in their town (which, by the way, all said they loved). All six are worried about how they’ll pay the bills soon. Richard, a gardener and Tesco delivery driver, dubbed it “really scary”.
For several, it went further than worry. Grandmother Becky, who voted Conservative in 2019, is livid about the economic injustice of it all. “I’ve done the right thing and worked hard all my life,” she said. “And what have I got to show for it? I still live in this council house,” she argued, close to tears of rage.
What did the group’s views add up to? A sense of deep alienation from Westminster, a wish for someone and something else, not out of a political whim but their own household necessity. That’s why today’s Levelling Up masterplan really does matter, to all of us, whatever our political persuasions.
The think tank that organised the focus group, More in Common, worry that the sort of disillusionment and anger we witnessed in Blackpool South is not just widespread across the Red Wall. It’s also highly fertile ground now for a charismatic populist-extremist to exploit, from the far Left or far Right. A British Hugo Chavez, a more dangerous Farage 2.0, an emboldened Donald Trump.
Levelling Up must be Westminster’s big chance to tell voters like Debbie, Becky and Ben that the current system can work, and will change things for the better. Even if it does take until 2030, as Johnson and Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, left, warn today.
The killer question remains though: is Johnson and Gove’s scale of aspiration and ability to deliver on it up to the task? It better be, because that task is gargantuan. It could also be one of Westminster’s last chances.
If you blame the press, you have a problem
Some Tory MPs are starting publicly to blame the partygate scandal on “the media”. Or worse, “the MSM” (mainstream media), as some more radicalised Johnson loyalists say. This is apparently on the PM’s lead, though the ex-journalist knows better than to say so in public.
There is a growing aura of Trump and his fanatical Make America Great Again supporters about this. They rejected facts too.
It’s a good moment to remind these MPs of a quote from legendary Leftist Enoch Powell: “For a politician to complain about the press is like a ship’s captain complaining about the sea.”
Rishi flunked his chance at leadership
So where does a week of Met Police pronouncements, fresh partying allegations and general Sue Gray melodrama leave the Parliamentary Conservative party?
A steady trickle of Boris Johnson’s MPs are still demanding he goes. Diehard loyalists insist that’s electoral madness.
For most, there seems to be deep and unresolved angst. Not least because the one man a fair few were hoping would precipitate a coup never stood up. A Tory MP supporter of Rishi Sunak, below, tells me: “We were just waiting for his signal. It never came.”
A former Cabinet minister who has been effusively supportive of Johnson in the past tells me it has dawned on Tory MPs that Boris will never change his ways.
His hideously ill-judged Commons performance on Monday, with the Jimmy Savile smear on Keir Starmer, seemed to confirm that.
Yet the ex-minister says: “The far harder question is what we do about it, and when we do it…
I just thank God I’m no longer in government. I don’t have to go on the airwaves to defend this great pile of horse shit.”
