The Padres might play five games without Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. They might play 15.
Or, per Dr. David David Chao, it could be many more games. The former Chargers team physician, writing for Sports Injury Central, targets late July for each player's return.
Whatever the total, call it a midseason test.
The Padres will try to hang tough while lacking both the National League's best player this season in Machado, who sprained his left ankle Sunday, and the league's third-place MVP vote-getter last year in Tatis, who's recovering from the left wrist fracture sustained in the offseason.
While losing two All-Stars in their prime spells turbulence, it shouldn't spell doom. Remember, the Padres have gone 41-27 (before Monday) without Tatis. Against teams with winning records, they're 17-15. On the road, they're 24-14. They don't spook easily. A massive payroll — fifth in Major League Baseball — has bought them cushion. Manager Bob Melvin and new pitching coach Ruben Niebla inspire confidence, as does Luke Voit — like Machado and Tatis, a righty slugger — hitting nine home runs this month.
Though replacing Machado looms tougher than replacing Tatis because of Machado's consistency and defensive brilliance, there's still enough talent on hand to avoid a tailspin. Even if the two stars miss 30 games, a 15-15 record isn't unrealistic.
And the big outlook stays the same: The Padres should claim one of three wild cards if they can't win the West race. For a franchise that last reached the playoffs in a full season in 2006, any ticket to the World Series tournament is golden.
Don't slight the third wild card, a gift the labor talks produced in March. A mere second wild card would've allowed the 2007 and 2010 Padres to reach the playoffs.
What Padres trait drives the optimism that A.J. Preller's eighth Padres team will make the playoffs, despite the injuries?
Cross your fingers. It's the starting pitching.
Led by Joe Musgrove, who could start the All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium next month, the Padres' crew stands second in ERA and adjusted ERA in the National League, while placing third in WHIP.
Yu Darvish, nearly as excellent as Musgrove this year at suppressing home runs, has performed as a solid No. 2 this year, including a one-run, seven-inning effort Monday night.
If it's too strong to label the rotation "seven deep," the number of capable starters numbers seven, including lefties Sean Manaea, Blake Snell and MacKenzie Gore to go with Mike Clevinger and swingman Nick Martinez.
The arms embolden both statistical analysts and scouts who forecast the Padres to weather the current injury storm. Though their disparity in optimism raises some concern, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs place the team's playoff odds at 61.7 percent and 88.8 percent, respectively. Meantime, two scouts voiced similar outlooks Monday.
"With their starting pitching," said an NL scout, "the Padres are going to be in pretty good shape every time out." He added: "Offensively, guys'll chip in somewhere."
If the starting pitching takes on water, look out.
Replacing frontline pitchers, Bruce Bochy said throughout a Padres managerial tenure that produced four West titles, exceeds replacing standout regulars on the degree of difficulty scale.
Preller and Melvin no doubt realize that Darvish, who'll turn 36 in August and relies heavily on breaking pitches, could benefit from a lightened workload in the season's first half. There's no point in expecting a lot more production this year from Gore, who's logging his first big-league season. Having thrown only 541/3 innings last year and probably a comparable amount in organized scrimmages during the pandemic in 2020, the 23-year-old lacks a sturdy foundation of innings pitched.
Where Machado's absence will shine the brightest light is on veteran pitchers Clevinger and Snell. In their recovery from reconstructive elbow surgery and an adductor strain, respectively, each former ace has shown good health. That's the first step and a big one. It seems plausible that as they accumulate innings, they'll begin to track closer to their career norms in productivity.
For all the talk about adding a hitter in the trade market that closes July 31, Preller should look to pick up a starting pitcher, too. Regardless, the biggest summer additions figure to be Machado and Tatis, and they stand to rejoin a team that's favorably positioned to grab a much-needed berth in the 12-team postseason field.
