Supply-chain kinks can affect NFL Draft classes, too.
Two months ahead of the big event, the flow of "franchise quarterback" prospects has dwindled to ... nothing?
As perceived by prominent draftniks with media outlets, not one quarterback gets a top-10 ranking in the 2022 NFL Draft Class.
Several lists are bereft of a QB in the top 15.
NFL teams, of course, may hold a higher — and certainly more informed — opinion of the same quarterbacks. The coming pre-draft workouts and interviews may bolster a team's belief in a quarterback, causing some draftniks to revisit their own grades.
But when Draft Night unfolds on April 28 — before an audience likely to exceed more than 40 million viewers across various outlets — it would be shocking to see three QBs go in the top 10 and therefore match the recent five-year average.
"None of the quarterbacks just completely blows you away to say, 'OK, slam dunk, take him,' '' NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, the former El Cajon Christian High QB who scouted for the Browns, Eagles and Ravens, said Friday in a two-hour draft chat with reporters.
Many draft analysts rate Pitt alum Kenny Pickett as the top quarterback.
Pickett is 18th and 19th on Jeremiah's and ESPN's lists, respectively.
Downturns happen, but the football industry is heavily invested in maintaining a supply of quarterback prospects who earn "frontline starter" grades from NFL teams.
Rule changes throughout the sport have greatly reduced QBs' physical hazards in the past two decades, while the proliferation of passing academies, passing leagues, virtual tools and increasingly QB-adaptive offenses have accelerated learning rates.
The randomness of humans possessing "star QB" material may be the only explainer for this year's perceived falloff.
An outlier factor worth considering is one Jeremiah brought up in reply Friday.
"I think the pandemic's part of it, I really do," he said. "You think about the (football) time that was lost during that time (in 2020 and 2021). Some of these (college) teams, the season was cut short. Arizona State played four games (in 2020). You had spring ball that teams lost out on."
Pickett showed how precious football opportunities can be.
As a fifth-year senior who was limited the previous year by an ankle injury, he last season amassed 42 touchdown passes and threw for 4,319 yards in 13 games.
His best season by far, it likely earned him considerable NFL money.
"This is somebody that got it figured out with the benefit of having reps and health," said Jeremiah. "You saw the guy's ability really start to come out and shine."
Jeremiah said Pickett, who'll turn 24 in June, is the most "NFL ready" quarterback in the class.
He added: "In terms of the upside," at the position, "I don't know how you'd see anybody other than Malik Willis just in terms of what he can do once he gets it all figured out."
Willis, playing for Liberty, amassed 40 touchdowns last year in 13 games. Powerfully built and strong-armed, he's 35th in Jeremiah's rankings, one spot behind the analyst's second-ranked QB, Ole Miss alum Matt Corral. At 36 is former North Carolina QB Sam Howell.
Jeremiah loosely paired Willis with the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 20.
A relative dearth of highly graded prospects but ample depth in the top 100 are other notable traits to the 2022 class.
Based on his grades last year to the Class of 2021, Jeremiah said eight of those players would be his No. 1 prospect this year. An NFL scouting executive reported a similar evaluation.
"The difference between the 15th player and the 60th players in this draft is very small," Jeremiah added.
The fallibility of draft analysis drives much of the event's appeal.
NFL teams whiff on about half of the quarterbacks taken in the first round.
Jeremiah acknowledged he and many analysts may be selling the Class of 2022's QBs short while trying not to get too far ahead of themselves in praising next year's QB class, generally perceived as more promising.
He pointed out that in grading the Class of 2017's QBs, he and many other draftniks shortchanged the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson while at the same time over-reacting to QBs further away in the pipeline such as Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.
So it's not only his Padres fandom that has humbled Jeremiah, 44.
"We had two of the best QBs we've seen in forever right under our nose," Jeremiah said of Mahomes and Watson, who went 10th and 12th. "So, it's not easy to evaluate these guys. The majority of us feel like this isn't the best year of quarterbacks. But, we've been proven wrong before so we'll see what happens."
Some facts can't be repeated too often.
In the 2000 Draft, the 199th selection was Tom Brady.
