Has COVID-19 become endemic nor not, that is the question. While the world over, the debate rages on whether COVID-19 has reached an endemic phase, in India there seems to be broad consensus that it has, in India, though epidemiologists might have taken various paths to get there. Interestingly, another question, whether endemicity is significant at all in the current context, is also cresting this wave of discussion among professionals, and might even take over the debate in the not so near future.
Jacob John, retired professor of virology, Christian Medical College, Vellore, says the terms endemic and epidemic are based on patterns, and no one has attempted yet to post numbers that could establish the stage the SARS-CoV-2 virus is at currently. However, he uses a comparison with the numbers of the past, more a rule of thumb criteria to argue that the infection has entered the endemic stage in India.
Considering the seven-day average of cases during the peak of the epidemic, the daily numbers have not crossed the 10% of that figure since the decline in numbers began, he points out. Despite the rise in cases in the last few days, the number has remained below 10 % of the seven-day average of cases during the peak of Omicron, Dr. John says. There has been a similar trend in South Korea, he adds.
