- Nearly every economist quoted over the last year or so has talked of a coming recession based on the inverted yield curve of US Treasuries.
- Similarly, I've been taking about Kansas City (HRW) wheat's inverted forward curve, but again investment traders aren't paying much attention.
- The situation could change for HRW wheat as May comes to an end, based on what I see on the long-term monthly chart for the Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index.
I made a comment Tuesday morning about how markets don’t necessarily have to follow the rules of an inverse. This after I saw another economist say the inverted US Treasury yield curve is no longer flashing a false recession signal, but now “The question is how deep the recession will be”. It’s possible, though I can’t help but remember what happens to a boat when everyone is standing on the same side, in this case nearly all economists lined up orderly (of course) on the side of a recession is not a question of if, but when. I can’t say I’m on the other side of the boat, not because I’m in agreement with them (I’m not) but because I’m not an economist so wasn’t invited on this particular 3-hour tour boating excursion.
