For the second consecutive season, the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars will close out the regular season with a matchup against each other.
Last year’s game was to determine the winner of the AFC South and it saw the Jaguars emerge victorious over the Josh Dobbs-led Titans, 20-16.
This time around, only one of these teams are jockeying for a playoff spot, as the Jags currently sit in first place in the division, which they can secure with a win.
But if they lose, the Jaguars aren’t guaranteed a postseason berth and would need some help in that scenario, so the Titans have an opportunity to play spoiler.
That said, this isn’t a game many Titans fans want to see them win, as a victory wouldn’t help them move up in the 2024 NFL draft order, which is paramount right now.
We’ll go over the draft and playoff scenarios and much more as we take a look at seven things to know for Week 18.
Jaguars are favored
According to BetMGM, the Titans are 3.5-point home underdogs to the Jags, with the over/under sitting at 41. Both lines have shifted since the start of the week after the spread started at five and the over/under at 40.
According to Team Rankings, the Titans are 6-9-1 against the spread and have hit the over in five games. Jacksonville is 9-7 against the spread and has hit the over seven times.
Head-to-head history
The Titans own a 34-24 all-time advantage over the Jaguars, which includes a playoff win in their only postseason meeting during the 1999 season, when Tennessee made a run to the Super Bowl.
The Titans dominated the Jaguars from 2017 through 2021, with Tennessee winning nine of 10 matchups.
However, the Jags are starting to return the favor the last few years, with Jacksonville winning each of the last three, including the Week 11 game this season and last year’s Week 18 contest that eliminated the Titans from playoff contention and won Jacksonville the AFC South.
Will Levis isn't playing
UPDATE: Levis has been ruled out for Week 18.
Levis suffered a foot injury in Week 17 that leaves his status up in the air for Week 18. Levis didn’t practice to start the week but was able to get in a limited session on Thursday, giving him at least a shot to play.
But chances are the Titans are going to sit him no matter what, as the team’s offensive line simply cannot protect the rookie quarterback, leaving him as vulnerable as can be to further injury.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel said earlier in the week that veteran Ryan Tannehill would start if Levis doesn’t go. If that plays out, Tannehill will make his final start in the two-tone blue, as both sides are expected to part ways when the veteran becomes a free agent in 2024.
This could be Derrick Henry's last game with Titans
When the Titans take the field in Week 18, it could be the final time we see franchise legend Derrick Henry wearing the two-tone blue, as the veteran back is set to hit free agency in 2024.
And his future with the team remains murky. He turned 30 on Thursday and a rebuilding Titans team may not want to bring him back, especially after it looked like he lost a step in 2023.
On the flip side, Henry showed he still has something left in the tank with a 1,000-yard season and a Pro Bowl nod, both of which are made more impressive by the fact that the offensive line in front of him stinks.
Adding to that, the Titans need a back to complement Tyjae Spears in 2024 and Henry is the perfect guy to do that.
But Henry would also have to want to come back, and while he’s said he’d be interested publicly, it’s not like he would ever say he doesn’t want to.
If he does return, it’ll have to be at a reduced cost and with the understanding that this team may not compete for another year or two and he might see a lesser role than he’s used to, especially if the Titans become a more pass-heavy team with Levis at the helm, something they need to do.
If Henry hits the open market, there will definitely be some contenders interested in his services who can also guarantee a bigger role, so that’s something he’ll have to weigh if he has the option to return to the Titans.
It’s fitting that Henry could be playing his last game against the Jags, a team he has tormented over the years. In fact, the entire AFC South will be thrilled when Henry is gone, as he’s posted sick numbers against the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, also.
Trevor Lawrence a game-time decision
After missing last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, Lawrence’s status remains up in the air going into Sunday.
Head coach Doug Pederson told reporters on Friday that Lawrence will most likely be questionable for the contest. The former No. 1 overall pick has been limited over the first two practices of the week but reportedly “looked pretty good” throwing the football on Thursday.
Doug Pederson told reporters that Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) will most likely be questionable for Sunday vs the Titans. Pederson said it could go all the way up to game time.
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 5, 2024
QB Trevor Lawrence (right shoulder/left finger) officially limited in practice today. I'm told he looked pretty good throwing the ball today, but the Jaguars will continue to be smart with what's best for Trevor obviously.
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 4, 2024
Even if he’s not 100 percent, it would be shocking if Lawrence doesn’t at least give it a go in a game the Jaguars need to win in order to guarantee a playoff berth (more on that shortly).
Jaguars aren't locked into playoffs yet
While the Jags enter Week 18 in first place in the AFC South and in a playoff spot, there is a scenario in which they can miss the playoffs entirely.
If Jacksonville wins, it clinches the division. If the Jags lose, the division would fall to the winner of Colts-Texans and the best Jacksonville could do is get the No. 7 seed.
But the more important result will come from Pittsburgh-Baltimore, where a win by the Steelers would force Jacksonville to win in order to make the playoffs. Bear in mind, the Ravens are sitting their starters.
If the Steelers win and the Jags lose, Pittsburgh claims the No. 7 spot with the better record. There is still an avenue for the Jags to get the No. 7 seed if they lose, but it would take losses by both the Steelers and Denver Broncos.
The Broncos are eliminated from playoff contention, but their finishing 9-8 with a win would create a tie-breaker scenario between the three teams that Pittsburgh wins.
While the Jaguars will know the result of Steelers-Ravens before kickoff, the Broncos don’t play the Las Vegas Raiders until the 4 p.m. EST slate Sunday, so the Jags won’t be locked into the playoffs going into the Titans game.
Thus, the Jaguars cannot blindly rest their starters on Sunday, making it more likely Lawrence will give it a go.
Titans jockeying for draft position
Entering Week 18, the Titans sit in the No. 7 spot in the 2024 NFL draft order, per Tankathon, but they have a range in which they can finish at following the final week of the season.
The Titans could end up as high as No. 4 and as low as No. 8. In order to get to No. 4, the Titans would have to lose and then need the Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers to all win.
Of course, the Titans can also move up a spot or two if they lose and one or two of those teams win.
If the Titans win and the New York Jets lose, the Titans would move to No. 8, unless the Chargers also win and finish with a higher strength of schedule, in which case Tennessee sticks at No. 7. If the Jets win, the Titans can finish no lower than No. 7.
Make sure to check out our draft pick rooting guide for Week 18 for all of the Titans’ scenarios going into the regular-season finale.
