The Tennessee Titans (7-5) are set to host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) in an AFC South showdown between two teams that don’t like each other very much.
Tennessee enters this game extremely banged up, already ruling six players out, with another three in question for Sunday’s divisional matchup.
That total doesn’t include the 16 different players that are presently on the injured reserve list, although wide receiver Racey McMath and defensive back Josh Thompson could both be activated on Saturday.
As for the Jaguars, they aren’t nearly as beaten and battered entering this contest, but they do have some uncertainty surrounding the availability of their young franchise quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.
The Clemson legend is expected to play in this one, but anything is possible until he’s officially ruled out.
Regardless of all this, there are several key matchups that are going to play a large role in determining the outcome of this one. Let’s dive right into the three most significant one that will likely have a large impact on Sunday’s game.
Derrick Henry vs. Jaguars’ run defense
It’s no secret that Derrick Henry has had some of the most memorable games of his career against the Jaguars.
It was back in 2018 when Henry had what most would consider his true breakout game in a Thursday night meeting between these two teams.
The Titans running back rushed for a then-career-high 238 yards and four rushing touchdowns on just 17 carries (14.0 yards per carry), including his infamous 99-yard touchdown run.
Since then, Henry has put together a Hall of Fame-caliber resume in which many consider him the greatest running back of this era.
Is Derrick Henry the greatest running back of this generation??
He's a 🦄@PSchrags | @JamieErdahl pic.twitter.com/d58c9Dg1n6
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) November 17, 2022
Against the Jags alone, Henry has rushed for 1,143 yards, averaging 103.9 yards per meeting and 5.4 yards per carry over 11 career games.
However, unlike many of those recent meetings, Henry comes into this game on a bit of an extended slump. Over the last four weeks, the Alabama product has only totaled 208 rushing yards and one touchdown on 75 carries (2.7 yards per carry).
The All-Pro running back has also averaged fewer than three yards per rush attempt in three of his last four outings.
Despite all this, the Yulee, Florida native is still second in the NFL in rushing yards with a total of 1,078 and 10 touchdowns.
If the Titans are going to have any chance at getting back into the contender conversation, they need Henry to get back to producing like the special talent that he is.
For that to happen, the offensive line has to give their running back a chance to do what he does best.
The former Heisman winner is never going to be the elusive type of back that’s going to make defenders miss in a phone booth, which has been necessary with the way the offensive line is playing.
Henry is at his best when he’s allowed to use his rare combination of size, strength, and speed to rush downhill into the second or third level of the defense, physically wearing the opposition down for four quarters.
He becomes a lot easier to deal with when defenders are instantly in his face and he’s forced to stop/shuffle his feet, and re-start his entire momentum.
All of this instant penetration also throws off a lot of the timing within the Titans’ zone-run game, which can often make ugly-looking plays look downright disastrous.
Needless to say, Henry and the rest of the Titans’ offense would love to have a get-right game against a familiar foe, cleaning up a lot of their recent ground issues in the process.
To do so, the Titans will face a formidable Jaguars front seven that includes established veterans such as Josh Allen and Roy Robertson-Harris, along with talented rookies Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd.
As far as overall rush defense, Jacksonville is currently right in the middle of the pack, allowing an average of 113.6 yards per game (14th-fewest). Henry and Co. will undoubtedly be looking to significantly eclipse that average on Sunday.
Titans’ passing attack vs. Jaguars' pass defense
The Titans’ 30th-ranked passing offense will once again be without their talented rookie receiver Treylon Burks, this time due to an unfortunate concussion that he suffered against the Eagles.
Burks’ absence has been significantly felt whenever he’s not out there for Tennessee’s offense. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging:
- 147.7 passing yards per game over the four contests that Burks either missed completely or left early (Indy, Philly).
- 254.3 passing yards per contest over the six games that Burks has been active and healthy for.
Tennessee will be looking to change this trend against a Jaguars secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense at the moment.
Cornerback Tyson Campbell has had a strong second season for Jacksonville that should warrant some Pro-Bowl consideration at the very least.
The Georgia product is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 55.6 percent of their passes when he’s targeted as the primary defender.
Tennessee will need someone who can step up in the passing game and provide a consistent threat with Burks sidelined once again.
It would be wise if the Titans continued to expand the role of rookie tight end Chig Okonkwo.
To be perfectly honest, it would probably be smart to get their explosive weapon more involved at this point regardless of who’s in the lineup.
Okonkwo is one of 26 players in the NFL with at least three receptions of 40 yards, 25 of which are wide receivers, with the Titans’ rookie playmaker being the only tight end of the group.
#Titans TE Chig Okonkwo is now the 5th highest rated TE in the NFL, per PFF
(min. 20% snaps) pic.twitter.com/vhOZ3YkdgH— Wes on Broadway (@TitansStats) December 6, 2022
Adding to that, only two tight ends in the entire NFL have at least four catches of 30-plus yards, with Okonkwo’s four falling behind only Kansas City Chiefs superstar tight end, Travis Kelce, who has five.
It would also be nice to see the eight-figure wide receiver Robert Woods have a consistent on-field impact after a mostly disappointing first season in Tennessee.
To do so, the USC product will have to find ways to get open against Campbell and the rest of Jacksonville’s pass defense.
There’s no telling how this matchup between the 30th-ranked passing defense vs. the 30th-ranked passing offense will go, but something’s got to give on Sunday.
Tennessee’s pass-rush vs. Jacksonville’s offensive line
After starting the year with arguably the most tenacious pass-rush in the NFL, the Titans have seen a relatively significant drop in its production as of late.
Most notably, Jeffery Simmons hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was earlier in the year when you could have made a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year argument for him.
This is due to a combination of things. For starters, his primary partner in crime, Denico Autry, has been sidelined with a knee injury ever since the team’s primetime win over the Packers.
Also, Simmons is dealing with an ankle injury of his own that has forced him to miss a significant amount of practice time over the last month or so.
Rashad Weaver has also seemingly hit a wall after his impressive start to the year, while Bud Dupree hasn’t looked the same ever since he somehow hurt his other hip.
The Jags enter this game with a respectable offensive line that includes high-priced veterans Cam Robinson and Brandon Scherff, along with talented young players such as Jawaan Taylor and Luke Fortner.
That unit is collectively only allowing 1.9 sacks per game at the moment, tied for the seventh-fewest in the league after 12 games.
The Titans have their work cut out for them if they want to get back to setting the tone similar to their dominant outings earlier this year. Look for No. 98 to try and get back to being one of the most disruptive defenders in the NFL.
If Simmons and Co. can make their presence felt throughout this one, it will probably end up being a long afternoon for the talented but banged-up Jaguars quarterback, whose mobility might be limited.
