The Tennessee Titans are scheduled to meet the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday in a massive AFC South showdown.
As everyone probably knows by now, the winner of this game will decide the 2022 AFC South champion, while the loser will be forced to watch the tournament from home in all likelihood.
These two teams couldn’t be on more opposite sides of the spectrum at the moment. The Titans have lost six-straight games and are on the verge of ending the season on their worst losing streak since 2014.
Meanwhile, the Jags have won four straight, and six of their last eight games.
Not many are giving the Titans a realistic chance in this one, but that’s often when the team plays its best and ends up surprising people.
Several key matchups will ultimately decide this one, so let’s dive right in and take a look at three of them to keep an eye on for Saturday evening.
Derrick Henry vs. Jaguars’ run defense
It’s no secret that Derrick Henry often thrives anytime he faces his hometown team. The Titans’ star running back has accumulated 1,448 total yards and 16 touchdowns against the Jaguars over his impressive career.
Henry has also rushed for at least 120 yards in five of his last seven meetings with the Jags, most recently occurring earlier this season during Tennessee’s Week 14 loss in Nashville.
In fact, that afternoon King Henry nearly topped 100 yards in the opening quarter before things completely unraveled for everyone wearing the two-tone blue.
This time around, the Pro Bowl running back will have his chance to finish what he started in a much more meaningful game with the entire country watching.
To do so, the Alabama product will have to face a formidable Jaguars run defense that ranks 11th, only allowing 112.8 yards per game this season.
Surprisingly, Jacksonville’s struggles only amplify whenever they’re at home. According to Team Rankings, the Jags allow an average of 132.5 yards per game on the ground whenever they play inside their own stadium.
If the Titans are going to head back to Tennessee with their third-straight division title, they’ll likely need Henry to eclipse that average.
Titans pass attack vs. Jaguars' pass defense
Despite the extreme lengths social media often resorts to, saying Joshua Dobbs performed admirably in his first career start doesn’t mean anyone believes he’s Tennessee’s next franchise quarterback.
Nor does it mean anyone realistically thinks he’s about to lead the Titans on a Cinderella run.
It simply means they believe he gives the team the best option to be competitive for the remainder of the 2022 season.
In his first career NFL start in Week 17, Dobbs completed 20-of-39 passes for 232 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against one of the better defenses in the NFL.
This was even more impressive considering the NFL journeyman didn’t have Henry in the backfield making his job much easier. Oh yeah, not to mention the fact that he had only been on the team for eight days.
Dobbs now has the chance to help his new squad secure a division championship for the third consecutive season.
To do so, the Tennessee product will have to face the Jaguars’ 28th-ranked pass defense that is allowing over 240 yards per game through the air.
Jacksonville’s secondary is led by budding star cornerback Tyson Campbell. According to Pro Football Focus, the former Georgia star has an overall grade of 80.2, seventh-highest amongst all qualifying cornerbacks.
However, outside of Campbell, no other corner on the Jags ranks inside the top 70 of highest overall defensive grades at their respective positions, per PFF.
If the Titans are wise, the offense will do anything and everything to get Treylon Burks away from Campbell as much as possible to maximize the rookie wideout’s impact.
Whether that means motioning their young weapon all over the field in hopes of creating potential mismatches, or manufacturing targets for the rookie, the Titans have to do whatever it takes to get the ball to No. 16 early and often.
#Titans OC Todd Downing says it’s paramount this week trying to get the ball to rookies Chig Okonkwo and Treylon Burks.
— Teresa Walker (@TeresaMWalker) January 4, 2023
Chig Okonkwo is another playmaker that should be a priority for this passing offense on Saturday evening. The Maryland product has arguably been the most impressive rookie tight end in the NFL this season.
Okonkwo has routinely shown glimpses of stardom throughout the year, which undoubtedly gets the fanbase salivating about his potential future impact in Tennessee.
Nonetheless, with the Titans’ season on the line, and with the two rookies being their most explosive pass-catchers by far, it’s safe to say that the future needs to start now when it comes to prioritizing Burks and Okonkwo.
Look for Dobbs to feed his top two weapons from the jump in this one, while the Jaguars do everything possible to limit their presence from being felt.
Titans' pass-rush vs. Jaguars' offensive line
In order for the Titans to pull off the massive road upset, they’re going to have to make Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable on Saturday evening.
The last time these two teams played each other, the Titans were without Denico Autry, and Jeffery Simmons battled an ankle injury that kept him from practicing for weeks.
This time around, Autry is healthy and expected to play, while Simmons is coming off some much-needed rest for that hobbled ankle.
The Titans are going to need the two of them to be at their very best on Saturday. If Simmons and Autry wreak havoc the way they’re capable of, Tennessee will at least have a chance to win.
The Jaguars’ red-hot offense enters this game hobbled along the front line. Cam Robinson and Ben Bartch are already listed on injured reserve, while Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff is questionable due to both ankle and abdomen issues.
Despite the health issues, Jacksonville has only allowed 1.7 sacks per game this season (T-5th). For the Titans to head back to Nashville with their eighth victory, they’ll likely need to eclipse that average on Saturday night.
Otherwise, it could be a long evening for a banged-up Titans defense that’s trying to slow down a Jaguars quarterback who is finally starting to put it all together and look like the generational talent he was once proclaimed to be.
