It is now nearly nine months since Russia invaded Ukraine. A war that should never have happened, and which Moscow hoped would be over in a matter of days, threatens to drag on endlessly. Estimates of military and civilian deaths vary wildly but are in the tens of thousands on each side. Over thirteen million Ukrainians have been displaced, about half of them across Europe and the other half internally. There has been inestimable damage to infrastructure and property. The approaching winter threatens to multiply misery many times over. As if the human suffering already experienced is not enough, the nightmarish spectre of the use of nuclear weapons lurks in the background.
The political and security fallout of this senseless conflict is immense. The United Nations has been reduced to irrelevance with respect to its peace and security role. So has the Organisation for Security & Cooperation in Europe. Nato, on the other hand, has had a fresh lease of life, and is likely to expand with the inclusion of Finland and Sweden, and possibly others. The war has also served to bring Europe together as never before, although that unity is fraying at the edges. Germany was forced to reverse its policy on providing external military assistance. The tying down of Russia in Ukraine has occurred alongside rumbles of various sorts in Russia's near neighbourhood in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
