DALLAS — When the Mavericks failed to finish in the West’s top 10 last April (I hate to say they “tanked” their way out because that was the direction they were surely headed, anyway), they did more than miss the playoffs and play-ins just one year after reaching the Western Conference finals. They slid all the way to the No. 4 spot on our list of Next Local Team to Win a Title.
Is summer league optimism a valid reason to believe the Mavs are climbing out of that hole just as quickly as they disappeared into it?
I won’t spend much time today on the other three. The Stars inhabit the No. 1 spot after a second trip to the Western Conference finals in four seasons. This year’s club was actually better and deeper and, more important, younger at key spots than the bubble team that reached the Cup Final. If there is a title to be won here in the next 12 months, it will be the Stanley Cup.
The championship drought stands at 12 years since the Mavericks paraded through Victory Park. If it continues beyond 2024, then I suspect the Cowboys at the No. 2 position might get involved. They have only two teams in front of them in the NFC. Unfortunately, there are no reassuring signs that Dallas passed the Eagles or 49ers in the offseason. Training camp (very slowly) will begin to tell us more in the next two weeks.
The Rangers rank third after a fantastic first two months followed by a 12-19 belly flop into the All-Star break. It’s a club headed in the right direction, which is really all one can ask right now. Believe in the Rangers accomplishing something in the 2023 playoffs at considerable risk.
After the Mavericks reached the playoffs in Luka Doncic’s second, third and fourth NBA seasons, one felt they were years removed from the bottom of this list. (Note: We include only established leagues that are older than the author here, so no disrespect to the Texas Super Kings). But you all know what happened after the Kyrie Irving trade, how the mercurial star guard played better than anticipated and behaved himself without exhibiting his characteristic selfishness. But the team never came together.
I still think there’s ample reason to believe Luka and Kyrie is a toxic mix on the court, not just one that may fail to live happily ever after away from it. You can expect them to do better than the 5-11 record they fashioned last season, but it’s still going to be two players more comfortable with the ball in their hands than without and neither really totally focused on defending. Owner Mark Cuban assures us that Kyrie understands this is Luka’s team.
We shall see.
With building around this duo in mind, the Mavericks focused on defense, which makes sense, at least to a certain point. In their second summer league game Wednesday, first-round picks Dereck Lively of Duke and O-Max Prosper of Marquette both had double-doubles in points and rebounds. This is exactly what Mavs fans would love to see when the rookies are playing anyone you’ve actually heard of, not players with distant hopes of making the back end of the Golden State roster.
The problem with putting any real stock in Lively or Prosper or the team‘s deluxe bench scorer, Jaden Hardy — now a top-five point producer in summer ball — is that these are kids. Prosper and Hardy turned 21 earlier this month. Lively is 19, won’t turn 20 until February. By the time these players are truly ready to help Dallas’ cause — especially talking about the defensive work of Prosper and Lively, who blocked eight North Carolina shots in a game last winter — will it be too late?
I never cared for the Irving trade last season, but the Mavericks at least did the smart thing this summer. Rather than bid against themselves, with the rest of the NBA showing massive indifference toward Irving, Dallas signed him to a short-term deal. A max deal would have handed the keys to the franchise to Irving for five years. Instead, he has a player option in 2025.
Essentially, Mark Cuban and Nico Harrison started a two-year clock ticking this summer. The addition of Grant Williams from Boston and the return of Seth Curry feel like decent moves, although no one would say they added a star player. I’m not sure either will be as effective as Dorian Finney-Smith or Spencer Dinwiddie were during last year’s playoff run, but we’ll have at least a season to find out about that.
With the team on the hot seat, it’s a bit surprising the Mavs ended up adding two first-round rookies rather than trying to turn that into another veteran. Those July double-doubles for Lively and Prosper are going to have to be more meaningful than they rightfully should be. Maybe even TCU rookie guard Mike Miles’ inspired summer highlights have to carry over into the regular season.
A team that needs to climb past Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Utah and the Clippers and Lakers just to get a whiff of the Nuggets, Suns and Warriors is counting on rookies and kids playing outsized roles supporting Luka and Kyrie. Feels like more than one should safely assume they can carry.
Until that happens, the Stars, Cowboys and Rangers are the better tickets.
