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Rich Asplund

Tighter Supplies and Brazilian Real Weakness Boost Coffee Prices

Ice Brazil United States Vietnam USDA

September arabica coffee (KCU25) on Thursday closed up +4.40 (+1.50%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) closed up +24 (+0.71%).

Coffee prices settled higher Thursday on signs of tighter supplies.  Brazil's Trade Ministry reported late Wednesday that Brazil's July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT.  Additionally, a decline in ICE arabica coffee inventories supports arabica prices, as evidenced by ICE-monitored inventories falling to a 14.5-month low of 743,240 bags on Thursday.  Conversely, ICE robusta coffee inventories have increased, a bearish factor for robusta prices, after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-year high of 7,029 lots last Monday.

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