The MLB trade deadline market lacks a blockbuster name in play. That may be about to change. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles, two first-place teams who know they are not October ready, have the same name at the top of their shopping list: left-handed ace Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.
Sources from the Dodgers and Orioles confirmed they are interested in putting together packages loaded with top prospects for Skubal. There is no indication yet whether Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris will move Skubal, though both Los Angeles and Baltimore have the rich prospect capital to make such a trade discussion interesting.
Harris believes the Tigers have a developing pitching corps that is the center of the team’s rebuild and does not want to disrupt it, according to a source familiar with his thinking. Skubal, 27, with two years of team control after this season, is the foundation piece. But Detroit lacks enough impact hitters to contend. The source said it is doubtful the Tigers move Skubal but added, “Everything has a price.”
Trading Skubal would be analogous to when the Washington Nationals traded Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres with 2.5 years of control at the 2022 deadline to jumpstart their rebuild. As part of that deal Washington received four of the Padres’ top nine prospects: shortstop CJ Abrams, outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood and pitcher MacKenzie Gore, as well as pitcher Jarlin Susana.
Trading a homegrown ace with contractual control is a rarity. Harris’s decision comes down to two factors: One, how soon does he believe the Tigers can contend for a championship with the talent they have on hand? And two, how tempting do the packages get from Los Angeles and Baltimore?
“They’re not contending this year and probably not next year,” a rival talent evaluator says of the Tigers. “So now your window with Skubal is one year. One year? That’s why you see what you can get now where he affects three postseasons. After this [deadline], the price goes down.”
Skubal, a five-pitch lefthander who throws 97 mph, is the rare starting pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff in the zone that elite teams covet in the postseason. Over the past two seasons he is 17–6 with a 2.57 ERA in 34 starts. In 196 1/3 innings he has walked only 35 batters and struck out 242.
Only three starting pitchers fill the strike zone more often than Skubal (55.9%): Justin Steele, Cole Irvin and Miles Mikolas. But nobody in baseball lives in the zone that much and is tougher to hit than Skubal. His batting average against on pitches in the zone is just .214. Only Ronel Blanco of the Houston Astros and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees are tougher to hit in the zone. Command and the ability to get hitters out in the zone is the definition of a playoff game-changing starter.
Both the Dodgers and Orioles need a starting pitcher. Garrett Crochet of the White Sox has elite stuff but his increased workload this year is a red flag for teams looking for someone to dominate in the seventh month. Jack Flaherty of the Tigers and Erick Fedde of the White Sox are good options, but not front-of-the-rotation ones.
The Dodgers have too much uncertainty in their rotation not to engage Detroit on Skubal. Clayton Kershaw is on track to rejoin the rotation by the end of this month, though his return from shoulder surgery warrants caution. Tyler Glasnow is on the IL with back tightness, though the injury is not considered serious and provided an excuse for the Dodgers to follow through on their plan to limit his innings. Glasnow also should return this month.
Otherwise, Bobby Miller is getting a mechanical and mental tuneup in Los Angeles with pitching guru Rob Hill, Yoshinobu Yamamoto may not be back from triceps tendinitis until September (which also fits the plan to limit his innings), Walker Buehler, who has not been right in his return from Tommy John surgery, has no clear timetable for a return, James Paxton has a 4.38 ERA and a high walk rate, and rookie Gavin Stone is untested in the postseason. The Dodgers may have many options for starters, but they have just as many uncertainties. Skubal would give them the certainty to stabilize the rotation—for three pennant races.
Likewise, Baltimore is built to win. But with season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means, Baltimore finds itself running out of playoff-caliber starting pitching behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. The Orioles’ system is loaded with enough quality hitters to build a package without including top prospect Jackson Holliday.
Baltimore is the one club best able to compete with Los Angeles in presenting offers for Skubal. As disinclined as Harris may be to trade Skubal, imagine Harris stoking a bidding war between the Dodgers and Orioles. As one talent evaluator put it when it comes to the needs of the Dodgers and Orioles at the deadline: “There are some teams who are under a ton of pressure to win.”
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Tigers All-Star Tarik Skubal May Be the Answer for Dodgers, Orioles at Trade Deadline.
