Good morning. It’s been 27 years since the Conservatives last had to choose a leader after being kicked out of office. In 1997, the 36-year-old William Hague beat the former chancellor Kenneth Clarke in a race dominated by debates over Europe, and went on to lose the next election by a landslide.
Last night, nominations for candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak opened, and the Tories entered a new debate about their future, with the first candidates to declare James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat. The issues at stake are very different this time – and the party starts in an even worse position in the House of Commons, having lost support to the left and the right. The debate leading up to the membership vote closing on 31 October is about who can be the most effective leader of the opposition – but also, at a moment of huge uncertainty, what kind of party the Conservatives should now be.
The Conservatives lost two-thirds of their seats at the election, and more than a fifth of the MPs they now have are new. Understanding how the composition of the party has changed is crucial to understanding what will happen next. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Sam Freedman, a former adviser to Michael Gove and co-author (with his father, Lawrence) of the excellent substack Comment Is Freed. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
US politics | Joe Biden has addressed Americans for the first time since his historic decision to withdraw from the presidential race, saying that “best way to unite our nation” is to “pass the torch to a new generation”. Biden said he could not allow his “personal ambition” to “come in the way of saving our democracy”. Read David Smith’s analysis.
Climate crisis | A surge in new oil and gas exploration in 2024 threatens to unleash nearly 12bn tonnes of planet-heating emissions, with the world’s wealthiest countries leading a stampede of fossil fuel expansion in spite of their climate commitments, new data shared exclusively with the Guardian reveals.
Wales | Eluned Morgan has been confirmed as the new leader of Welsh Labour and is to become the first female first minister of Wales. Lady Morgan was the only candidate to put herself forward to replace Vaughan Gething.
US news | Benjamin Netanyahu lauded US support for Israel’s war in Gaza but offered few details on ceasefire negotiations as he addressed a raucous joint session of US Congress that was boycotted by dozens of Democratic lawmakers and protested against by thousands outside the US Capitol.
Energy | Keir Starmer will promise to build enough offshore wind over the next five years to power 20m homes, by using taxpayer money to develop parts of the seabed owned by the royal family. The prime minister will announce details of the government’s energy generation company, known as Great British Energy, during a visit to the north-west on Thursday.
In depth: ‘Since Brexit, the Tories have been an ideological mess’
In the end, Sunak’s election performance was a disaster, but not an extinction-level event. And as bad as 121 MPs undoubtedly is, the narrow majorities held by many of their Labour counterparts suggest that it is not impossible for the Tories to have a fighting chance at the next election. First, though, they have to figure out who they are.
That is not a simple question in the light of the party’s ideological struggles of the last few years. In a recent edition of his newsletter, Sam Freedman wrote:
Since Brexit they have been an ideological mess, caught between Thatcherite economic liberalism and a desire to appeal to leave voters in the style of the European populist right. In the end they just pissed off everyone, and are no clearer on what their identity should be.
The likely leading contenders are James Cleverly (above) and Tom Tugendhat – who have already declared – early favourite Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, and Priti Patel. Tugendhat and Cleverly are fighting to be the moderate candidate, Patel and Jenrick are rivals for the votes of the right, and Badenoch is seeking to avoid factional associations.
But all of them know that their chances will be limited if they can only pick up the votes of one wing of the party. Here are some questions that may shape the race that lies ahead.
***
What does the Conservative party look like today?
Voters punished the Conservatives across the board, meaning that the ideological balance hasn’t changed that much. Freedman quotes this analysis from UK in a Changing Europe, which finds very little change in the proportion of MPs who declared support for the leadership candidates in the 2022 vote ultimately won by Liz Truss.
The most obvious change, Freedman says, is “that the shift in direction towards GB News-ish anti-woke social conservatism isn’t really reflected in the parliamentary party any more.” Only three of the 24 members of the New Conservatives group that represented that tendency held on to their seats.
“The people who won in 2015, 2017, and 2019 have more or less been wiped out,” Freedman said. “It’s now people who have either been MPs since 2010, or are completely new.” The ideological leanings of the 26 new MPs are not yet clear, but “they have a really wide range of backgrounds and interests,” Freedman said. “Local party associations are now so small that it’s hard to draw big conclusions from who they select.”
***
How will the process shape who ends up winning?
The most important thing about the process announced by the Conservatives earlier this week is that it’s pretty long, with results announced on 2 November. (In publicity terms, the decision to present a new leaderthree days before the US election looks like a strange one.)
“That probably helps the candidates who are less well known, and will have a chance to make themselves known,” Freedman said. “I think the main person it harms is Kemi Badenoch.” That’s partly because of her reputation as an abrasive figure – she will need the discipline to avoid confirming it for longer – and partly because, as the current frontrunner, the sooner the contest ends the better.
Candidates need ten MPs’ nominations to get on the ballot. The contest will be narrowed down by MPs to four candidates before party conference, where those four will get a chance to address the membership. Then MPs reduce the number to two before a final membership vote.
By making sure MPs still have a say after conference, the 1922 committee – which sets the rules – has ensured that the candidates need to appeal to MPs worried about electability, as well as members worried about their ideological purity.
But members will decide in the end. With the right wing of the parliamentary party strong enough to be fairly confident that their preferred candidate will make it to that stage, “there’s a good chance that the other one will be a ‘stop the right’ candidate who they think can win with the members,” Freedman said. “That isn’t necessarily the same thing as the one they think would be the best leader.” So, for example, some of them might want Tugendhat or Cleverly, but back Badenoch because they think she can beat Jenrick (above) or Patel.
***
What will the leadership contest be about?
In 1997, the EU dominated the debate among MPs – and Hague’s victory against the more obviously electable Clarke was largely the result of the latter’s pro-European instincts. (Members didn’t have a vote then.) “There’s not one big dividing line like that this time,” Freedman said. “That makes it a much hazier fight to analyse.”
If the debate post-election has been about whether the party lost because it was too right wing, too left wing, or too incompetent, “at the moment I think incompetence is winning among MPs”, Freedman said – “although I doubt they’d frame it like that. All of the candidates with a serious chance are pitching to both sides.”
If there were 50 or 60 surviving Tories rather than 121, “you might have seen an argument about whether there should be an alliance with Reform”, he added. “From here, it’s a big job to beat Labour, but it’s not impossible. So that isn’t on the table.” This means that for MPs “it will be easier to think about electability as a factor”.
But they will also need to woo the Daily Telegraph and GB News, the most influential media outlets with Tory members. “If, for example, the final two were Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick, and the Telegraph had really attacked Tugendhat as not conservative enough, it would be very harmful to his chances. So they are going to have to lean towards that audience to a degree.” Sure enough, in announcing his candidacy, Tugendhat threw a bone to the right, declaring that he would be willing to leave the European convention on human rights.
***
Who is the favourite?
Early polls of members have put Badenoch in front, with a survey by Queen Mary University of London giving her 31% against 16% for Suella Braverman (who is thought to be unlikely to get enough nominations from MPs to be a candidate), and 15% for Tugendhat. Conservative Home found 28% backing Badenoch, with 13% each for Jenrick and Tugendhat, and 10% for Braverman.
“She has positioned herself in the centre of the party, hitting buttons for different groups,” Freedman said. “Anti-woke, pro-growth, a bit of Thatcherite rhetoric – that’s why she’s favourite.”
Among the public, on the other hand, Badenoch does not appear to enjoy the same status. A Savanta poll yesterday found that Tugendhat had the strongest approval rating among voters, probably because he is not very well known; Ipsos found the same thing, with Priti Patel the most disliked of the leading candidates.
In any case, it’s too early to make a meaningful prediction. “The electorate of MPs is very small,” Freedman said. “It will depend a lot on how they present themselves, and then who the final two are.”
Is there a chance of a Hague-style misstep, or – worse – another Truss? “The MPs are conscious of that danger,” Freedman said. “With the possible exception of Priti Patel, they are all much more conventional candidates.”
On the other hand, he said, “you can imagine it ending up as, say, Patel against Cleverly, and the membership preferring Patel”. That appears relatively unlikely at the moment. “Short of cutting out the members altogether, which isn’t plausible, they have probably given themselves the best chance of picking someone viable,” Freedman said. “But anybody who says they can confidently predict what they’re going to do yet is bluffing.”
What else we’ve been reading
You can probably guess who is at the top of the music charts at any given moment of late. Eamonn Forde explains why they feel so stagnant. Nimo
Guardian US reporter Carter Sherman digs into the troubling rise of “trad wife” influencers, looking at socially (and often politically) conservative figures who “retreat not only into the home, but also into history”. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
For the Financial Times magazine (£), Rachel Connolly attempts to break her scrolling addiction by going to a silent retreat. Nimo
Over the next week, the Guardian will be publishing a series of interviews with Palestinians whose lives have been turned upside down by the Gaza conflict. For this first instalment, Bethan McKernan speaks to physiotherapist Suha Nasser about the devastation of losing her husband and young son, who were killed when their home was bombed, and the terrible injuries she also suffered. Hannah
Guy Lane spoke to Peter Kennard, the prominent UK political artist, about his new exhibition at Whitechapel Gallery, London, called Archive of Dissent. They discuss his themes – inhumanity, capitalism and waste – and why he continues on. “Art doesn’t save the world,” he says, but it can create alliances and solidarity and that can have an effect. Nimo
Sport
Olympics | Argentina’s match against Morocco on the first day of men’s football at the Olympics was mired in chaos after a pitch invasion forced it to be suspended for over an hour. Play eventually resumed behind closed doors, with Morocco winning 2-1 after the Argentinian equaliser in the 16th minute of second-half injury time that sparked the crowd trouble had been ruled out by VAR.
Olympics | The video of the Team GB equestrian star Charlotte Dujardin whipping a horse 24 times in a private coaching session has cost her a damehood, official sources have told the Guardian. Dujardin was widely expected to be handed the honour if she won another dressage medal in Paris, equalling the record tally for a British Olympian.
Football | The Premier League, together with the Football Association, English Football League and Women’s Super League, have released a code of conduct for gambling deals, less than 24 hours after campaigners accused top‑flight clubs of milking cash from betting firms before a ban on front‑of‑shirt sponsors is introduced for the 2026-27 season.
The front pages
“Revealed: rich western countries lead global gas and oil expansion” is our splash in the Guardian’s print edition this morning. Top story in the Financial Times is “US tech slide deepens after big names fail to hit targets”. “Horror crash arrest” – the Metro reports on this story. “Senior army officer stabbed outside barracks” says the Daily Express and the Daily Mirror also covers the “Appalling” attack in Gillingham. “Tugendhat: I’m ready to leave the ECHR” – the Daily Telegraph covers the Conservative leadership contest, while the Times has “Labour plans thousands of offshore wind turbines”. “Is this the end for our copper coins?” asks the Daily Mail as the Royal Mint sits idle. “Corbyn trying to form rebel alliance to fight Starmer” is the lead in the i.
Today in Focus
Team GB’s plan for Paris? Air con, ice vests and baristas
The Olympic Games are starting on Friday – but what does it take to get Team GB ready, and what should spectators be watching out for? With Sean Ingle
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Ben Aitken was 35 when he was accosted in the bathroom of a gastropub and asked if he wanted to join the Comics, a veterans’ football team made up mostly of retirees. Aitken was at a moment in his life where he was saying yes to a lot of things he previously have politely turned down and – before he knew it – he was on the pitch. His youth did not imbue him with any extra ability – in fact he was comically bad at the sport – but he found immense joy in it. “I loved the steady adrenaline. I loved the gentle camaraderie. I loved the combination of exercise and nostalgia,” Aitken writes.
He is now the manager of the Comics and, 18 months into the job, he’s has as much success as a manger as he did a player – the team have only won two matches under his stewardship. Regardless of their losses, he feels rejuvenated and more determined to try new things. “I feel more optimistic, supported and energised … I’ve spiced up my fun life no end.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
