Good morning.
Suella Braverman has spent the last few days on the other side of the Atlantic discussing global migration and international refugee law. During her trip, the home secretary made a speech to a rightwing thinktank – the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington DC – that was littered with incendiary comments and dubious statistics.
The aim of her trip was to “start a conversation” around reforming the 1951 refugee convention, the United Nations multilateral treaty that was drawn up after the second world war, which defines what a refugee is and what rights they have. Braverman decried the law as “outdated”, said that it is creating “huge incentives for illegal migration” and would not rule out withdrawing from the convention altogether. The international asylum framework has created 780 million refugees, Braverman claimed, a number that is more than 20 times bigger than the widely used figures set by the UN that says there were 35 million people registered as refugees in 2022. And she wheeled out an old favourite: multiculturalism, Braverman says, has failed.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s home affair’s editor, Rajeev Syal, about why Braverman chose to make this speech now and how it will impact her political prospects in the coming year.
Five big stories
UK news | A 15-year-old girl has died after she was stabbed during rush hour in south London. A 17-year-old boy, believed to have known the victim, is in custody, the Metropolitan police said.
France | The UN has weighed in on France’s debate about secularism and women’s clothing, saying women should not be forced to abide by dress codes, after the French government said athletes representing France would be barred from wearing headscarves during the Paris 2024 Olympics.
US news | The American soldier Travis King, who fled across the border from South Korea to North Korea in July, is back in US custody. North Korea decided to expel King, who, according to the state news agency KCNA, had confessed to illegally entering the country.
Conservatives | One of the Conservative party’s biggest and most influential donors, Anthony Bamford, is under investigation over his tax affairs, the Guardian can disclose. The broad-ranging inquiry by HMRC may cast a shadow over the more than £10m he and his family have given to the party over the past 20 years.
GB News | GB News has suspended the presenters Dan Wootton and Laurence Fox as the channel struggles to contain the fallout after misogynistic comments made on Wootton’s show.
In depth: ‘She’s really put herself out there – I don’t know whether that will pay off’
In a lengthy speech that she made to a relatively empty conference room mostly packed with British journalists, the home secretary accused asylum seekers of “shopping around” and said that being discriminated against for being gay or a woman was not “sufficient to qualify for protection”. It did not go down well back home.
Braverman was accused of scapegoating LGBTQ+ people by Labour’s shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, and her comments were condemned as “dog-whistle” politics. Andrew Boff, a Conservative London Assembly member and patron of the LGBT+ Conservatives group added that the home secretary should focus on the “basket case” that was her department. And Tory peer Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s former chief of staff, bluntly accused Braverman of using the “language of the far right”.
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What was new?
While the tenor of her speech felt more extreme, as she framed migration as an “existential challenge” and threat to the west’s security and culture, Rajeev notes that most of what Suella Braverman said was not new. “She’s pulled together a number of her greatest hits,” he says. “The language might have been slightly turned up, particularly on the questions around culture, but she has said most of this stuff before.”
The difference is this time she attempted to build all of these ideas into one cohesive argument against a 70-year-old piece of international law that is signed by over a hundred countries – pretty ambitious stuff for a home secretary overseeing a department that can’t even keep track of child asylum seekers under its care.
For there to be any change to the 1951 refugee convention, all 149 member states of the United Nations would have to agree to the reforms that Braverman would like to implement – an unlikely scenario. The home secretary is aware of how unrealistic these lofty goals are, so it is fair to assume that she had more of a domestic audience in mind when she made her speech.
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Suella for leader?
It is well understood that Braverman’s speech in Washington was her attempt to position herself as the hard-right candidate to succeed Rishi Sunak. “Her speech was the type of speech that people put forward when they are trying to become the leader of a party and they want to convince people that they have a story,” Rajeev says. Braverman yesterday dismissed this idea as “flippant”, adding that her primary motivation for the speech and the trip more broadly was to address the “epoch-defining challenge of illegal migration” – though crucially she did not rule out that she would be a candidate in a future leadership battle.
There is no imminent race, however many Tories believe that their party will lose the next election, meaning that there will probably be a contest sometime in the next 18 months. This speech was Braverman’s way of making her intentions known, particularly ahead of the Conservative party conference, due to begin on Sunday. The escalating language was the latest attempt to boost her credentials with those on the right of the party who believe that immigration will be a prominent issue.
However, there is a significant chance that her rhetoric could backfire: “It’s a big gamble – she’s really put herself out there and I don’t know whether that will pay off,” Rajeev says. A number of Tory MPs have already made their frustrations clear, expressing their disappointment with Braverman’s decision to choose the “old politics of division and hate” instead of showing how she, and by extension Britain, could be a global player. Another MP told the news website Politico that she was “just a Little Englander delivering Sir John Hayes’ lines”. Appeasing one side in the hopes that the other will just accept it is a risk, though it has worked out for Braverman so far in her career.
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The state of asylum policy
So, how is Braverman’s hardline stance translating to Britain’s asylum policy? In short, it is not working.
The goal of the Home Office under Braverman, and her predecessors, has been to criminalise people who arrive in the UK by “irregular means” – like those who arrive on a small boat or in the back of a lorry – through the illegal immigration bill. “Unless you are from a very small cohort of people who can apply for specific and narrow schemes there are no safe routes to come to the UK and apply for asylum,” Rajeev says. “The vast majority of people who are coming across in small boats to claim asylum are criminalised once they arrive but there’s no alternative way to get here.”
The Home Office would argue that hundreds of thousands of people from Ukraine and Hong Kong have arrived legally and safely in the UK, but these groups have entered the country on bespoke visas that bypass the normal asylum process altogether. The other way to apply is through UN resettlement schemes that are extremely slow and restrictive, leaving most asylum seekers in the hands of dangerous smuggling gangs.
To put it in some perspective, while asylum applications to the UK have increased, the UK ranks 19th when grouped with the rest of the EU for asylum applications per head. Despite that the government is faced with record asylum backlogs and reports of neglect and mistreatment as thousands of people are left in small hotel rooms that have been compared to prison cells, unable to work. As the immigration minister insists that these hotels are “luxurious”, reports reveal chronic overcrowding and conditions that have left some children suffering from malnutrition. The cruelty comes at a price tag of £8m a day to house people in hotels and other temporary accommodations, such as the Bibby Stockholm barge.
The government’s flagship Rwanda plan, which would send asylum seekers to Rwanda to be processed, is also currently at a standstill and making its way through the courts.
“There’s not a single part of the Home Office’s brief that is actually functioning, so it’s no wonder that that Suella Braverman would rather fly to America and make a speech about her grand theory of global migration and blame international law for the UK’s problem,” Rajeev says. Despite all of this, Braverman seems to be getting away with her record. The government is continuing to stand beside her and even if she is sacked in the next cabinet reshuffle, “it would make her an even bigger hero in certain sections of the Conservative party,” Rajeev adds. The last time she was sacked – less than a year ago – she was back in post within the week.
It might just be all coming up Suella.
What else we’ve been reading
Here’s an incredible collection of images profiling 50 years of Europe in photos (one of which is featured above), with the Guardian’s Europe correspondent Jon Henley and picture editor Guy Lane reflecting on a half century of upheaval. Nazia Parveen, acting deputy editor, newsletters
New York City has finally gotten tough on Airbnb, with new restrictions that are designed to bring back thousands of rental properties to the housing market. Anna Minton lays out how the rest of the world can follow in the city’s footsteps. Nimo
Into the fascinating world of Covid hunters, amateur sleuths tracking the virus and its variants. Linda Geddes takes a look at how the pandemic’s trajectory is becoming more difficult to predict – with decision-makers increasingly reliant on the warnings of a diverse bunch of independent researchers. Nazia
Zoe Williams speaks to author Michael Wolff, as he returns to the Murdoch empire for his latest book. He discusses power, politics, the media and how “Lachlan Murdoch is a Hamlet figure”. Nazia
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Hollywood studios enacted a swift ban and pulled their films out of the country. But not everyone has let this stop them from enjoying the big screen. William McCurdy spoke to people who are watching blockbusters through an illicit network of screenings. Nimo
Sport
Football | Ukraine has said it will not play in tournaments involving Russian teams after Uefa announced plans to reinstate Russia’s under-17 sides to European competitions. In a statement the Ukrainian Association of Football urged Uefa to reconsider its decision and urged other countries not to play against Russian teams.
Rugby | Uruguay secured their first win at this year’s Rugby World Cup, fighting back to beat Namibia 36-26 in their Pool A meeting in Lyon. Namibia led 14-0 early on and 23-12 soon after half-time, but were punished for ill-discipline as their bid for a first-ever World Cup win fell short.
Football | Another moment of brilliance from Dominik Szoboszlai sealed yet another comeback from Liverpool, as Leicester’s hopes of an upset in the Carabao Cup were shattered with a 3-1 loss at Anfield. Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães and Anthony Gordon made a mockery of Manchester City’s earlier domination, paving the way for Alexander Isak’s second-half goal to secure a 1-0 victory.
The front pages
The Guardian leads on “HMRC investigating tax affairs of one of Tory party’s largest donors”. The Times reports “No 10 back threat to leave rights convention”. The Telegraph has more on the incident that led Met firearms officers to lay down their weapons earlier this week, with “Officer who shot jailbreak gangster faces sack”.
The Sun says “Girl, 15 ‘knifed to death saving pal’”, while the Mail has the same story under the headline “Stabbed to death in her uniform on the way to school”. The Mirror calls it “Every parent’s worst nightmare”.
The Financial Times reports “City watchdog probes private market valuations as borrowing costs pick up”. The i says “Labour U-turns on plan to axe private school charity status”.
Today in Focus
Nagorno-Karabakh: Why a frozen conflict suddenly exploded
After a long blockade – then a lightning-fast offensive – the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh finally fell to Azerbaijan. This week tens of thousands of refugees have fled over the border into neighbouring Armenia.
The Guardian’s Moscow correspondent, Andrew Roth, was at the border speaking to people evacuating. He explains to Michael Safi the long roots of the conflict and its wider significance.
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Following in the footsteps of hygge and The Killing, is friluftsliv set to be our next Scandi obsession? Rachel Dixon travelled to Norway to learn about the concept: “a way of being that is part of the national identity”. The term was first coined by Ibsen in the 19th century, and translated literally means “free-air life”, but is more commonly thought of as an outdoor activity, a way to de-stress in nature as part of a shared culture.
Despite being rain-soaked throughout her trek with secretary general of Norsk Friluftsliv, Bente Lier, Rachel could see the attraction. “You don’t have to go to a forest; you can go to a park. You don’t have to walk far, or fast; it’s just about being there,” says Lier. “Sit on a rock, listen to the birds, look around and try to root again.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
