Good morning. I’m really sorry about this, but today’s newsletter is about the extent of the “black hole” in the public finances and the government’s fiscal rules.
I don’t like this any more than you do: I’d frankly rather be writing about whether King Conker is a cheat. But the budget is nearly upon us, and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has started talking about a £40bn funding gap, when you might have only just got used to being alarmed about the £22bn “black hole”. Several of today’s front pages carry reports of planned tax rises to balance the books; meanwhile, Reeves is planning to redefine debt to give herself more room for manoeuvre. If you have found yourself confused by this, congratulations on at least paying close enough attention to notice how knotty it all is.
