Good morning.
Yesterday, the UK’s supreme court unanimously ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold a vote on independence without permission from Westminster – something four consecutive prime ministers have refused to give the Scottish government. But going to the courts was just one route, among many, that the SNP were taking to make Indyref2 a reality, and they were prepared for an unfavourable outcome.
The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said she respects the court’s ruling, but that the country should expect that the next UK general election, in 2024, would become a “de facto referendum”, meaning that a win for her SNP government would be akin to a vote for independence.
This is a risky move: not only would the SNP need a record-breaking victory but running a single-issue campaign at the next general election runs the risk of alienating swing voters who might back the union, but be happy to be represented in Westminster by the SNP. I spoke to the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Libby Brooks, about what this ruling means for the future of the independence campaign, Scottish politics and Sturgeon. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Michelle Mone | The Conservative peer and her children secretly received £29m originating from the profits of a PPE business that was awarded large government contracts after she recommended it to ministers, documents seen by the Guardian indicate.
NHS | Ambulance crews could not respond to almost one in four 999 calls last month – the most ever – because so many were tied up outside A&Es waiting to hand patients over, dramatic new NHS figures show.
Water | A report from Surfers Against Sewage has found that water companies have been dumping sewage on to beaches and rivers even when it is not raining. The report showed that 146 dry spills had been detected over a 12-month period.
Shamima Begum | Shamima Begum would face the death penalty if sent to Bangladesh, her parents’ country of origin, and is now effectively stateless, a court has heard. The court was told that then home secretary, Sajid Javid, did not consider the consequences of removing her UK citizenship.
Housing | Michael Gove has announced that the Rochdale housing association, where two-year-old Awaab Ishak died from exposure to black mould, will have its funding cut by £1m. Gove added that he would block new funding to other housing providers who were found to be failing their tenants.
In depth: ‘Sturgeon’s got mandates coming out of her ears – and it’s got them nowhere’
In 2014, the Scottish public voted against independence, 55% to 45%. Even though it was not a narrow loss, the issue of independence has never disappeared from Scottish politics. The year after the referendum, the SNP won a landslide victory, taking 56 of Scotland’s 59 parliamentary seats, a super-majority that was supposed to be impossible in Holyrood. While they have lost several of those seats since, they still hold more than half, giving them a mandate, they argue, to continue pursuing the cause. Following the court decision – what options are left to them?
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What just happened
The supreme court’s categorical ruling against the Scottish government was expected. But even if the judges had ruled in favour of a second referendum, the results would not have been legally binding. The SNP’s argument was that this referendum would merely act as a sort of nationwide, expansive opinion poll that could definitively show what the Scottish people want.
Either way, for the Scottish government to secure their sovereignty, there has to be an agreement between Holyrood and Westminster. Without consent from both governments, any referendum vote is not legally binding. The UK government has made it clear that it has no intention of granting Sturgeon a section 30 order, which is what granted the 2014 referendum legitimacy, in the foreseeable future.
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A ‘de facto referendum’
Nicola Sturgeon was always prepared for the supreme court to shoot down the government’s appeal. In fact, the ruling has given her the perfect context to reframe the independence movement as a pro-democracy movement, because the UK is “no longer a voluntary partnership of nations”, as Sturgeon put it in a press conference. “This is no longer just about whether or not Scotland becomes independent,” she said. “It is now more fundamental: it is now about whether or not we have the basic democratic right to choose our own future.”
Sturgeon has said that the SNP are going to launch a “major campaign in defence of Scottish democracy” – and the only way to do so would be to use the next general election, in 2024, as a “de facto referendum”. Despite the fact that Sturgeon floated this plan almost five months ago, there are still very few details available. So far, the only thing she has said definitively is that pro-independence parties would have to win 51% of the vote to secure a mandate. “Beyond that, there’s very little meat on the bones of what running the next general election as a ‘de facto referendum’ actually means,” Libby says.
“What do you say to a Scottish voter who wants to put their cross in the SNP’s box because they’re happy with their record in government but don’t want to vote for independence?” says Libby. “Or what happens during televised debates – will the SNP still take part and if they do, will they only answer questions that are related to independence?” Sturgeon has said that the SNP will hold a special conference in January to hash out these details.
Even if the UK government were to accept the premise of this argument, which they have already said that they do not, and then pro-independence parties won the election, the results would, at best, give the SNP a negotiating mandate which effectively leaves them in the same position they have been in for years. “Sturgeon’s got mandates coming out of her ears, as the SNP have had huge electoral success both in the Holyrood elections and Westminster elections, standing on their platform of wanting to hold another independence referendum,” Libby says. “And it’s got them nowhere.” So the question remains: why would an election-turned-referendum be any different?
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The bigger picture
Almost every school in Scotland is closed today because of the first full teachers’ strikes in almost four decades. NHS staff are also planning to strike this winter, alongside rail workers, because of poor pay and working conditions. “Our finance minister has said that there’s simply no money left and that a combination of Brexit, inflation and the Tory’s budget has emptied Scottish coffers,” Libby says. Scotland is facing massive domestic problems and, as people wonder about how they will afford basic necessities over the coming months, it’s unclear just how much of a priority the question of independence will be.
This is not to say that Indyref2 is an abstract and superfluous idea to most Scottish people: the polling shows that the split is still around 50-50 when it comes to independence. And, in the minds of many Scottish people, the problems the country faces are massively exacerbated by decisions made by the UK government.
A lot has happened since the 2014 referendum, much of which runs contrary to promises made by the Better Together campaign at the time: Scotland is no longer in the EU despite overwhelmingly voting against Brexit; the Scottish parliament has not been given any more powers; and the Scottish public has repeatedly voted against the Tory government but is stuck with it nonetheless. Scottish nationalists would argue that almost a decade of unprecedented change in the UK is enough to reconsider even a “once in a lifetime” question.
What else we’ve been reading
Here’s a deeply enjoyable feature wheeze: the people clinging on to old tech, from BlackBerries to typewriters. I can get my head round most of it, but Lisa from Missouri’s abiding love for fax machines will forever be beyond my understanding. Archie
This piece by Erica Berry was a wonderful reminder of how fostering connections can change our lives for the better. Looking back at her own experiences, she explores the beauty and fun in intergenerational friendships. Nimo
Henry Hill, deputy editor of ConservativeHome, has a good piece explaining the unease within Tory ranks over theoretical claims of a Swiss-style deal with the EU but much more besides. The key line: “MPs never really bought into anything one might call ‘Sunakism’”. Archie
Tomorrow is Black Friday and with it comes the advent of sales season. Brittney Rigby has a great guide on how to navigate the Black Friday sales during a cost of living crisis. Nimo
As rumbles about pressure on Ukraine to seek peace talks continue, this Intelligencer piece by Eric Levitz is a smart, even-handed summary of the six questions anyone seeking to influence Kyiv needs to be able to answer. Archie
World Cup
Japan provided the second big shock of the tournament, after Saudi Arabia’s victory over Argentina, by beating Germany 2-1. Canada threatened to produce a similar upset in a fine performance against Belgium, but were left to regret a missed penalty from Alphonso Davies and eventually went down 1-0. Spain against Costa Rica was a more one-sided affair, with the 2010 champions running out 7-0 victors. And Morocco and Croatia drew 0-0.
Ahead of their match against the USA on Friday night, England were handed good news when Harry Kane trained despite a scan on his right ankle. Off the field, the German team won praise for their decision to cover their mouths for a team photograph, indicating they had been gagged by Fifa over the ban on wearing the OneLove armband which promotes LGBTQ+ rights. Captain Manuel Neuer said after the match that “they can take our armband, but as much as Fifa might want to, they will never silence us”. Sean Ingle wrote that their stance would “reverberate down the years and the generations”.
For all the latest on Qatar, from the scandal to the scores, sign up to Football Daily – our free, sometimes funny, newsletter
Other sport
Football | Fans in Manchester expressed their relief at the news that the Glazer family could sell their club. “Good riddance, I think every Manchester United fan will say,” says Babak Tabrizi, 64, the manager of United Cafe. Barney Ronay writes that the Glazers have been “terrible football club owners” with “the sense of an object being expertly hollowed out from the inside”.
The front pages
The Guardian print edition leads today with “Revealed: Conservative peer Michelle Mone secretly received £29m from ‘VIP lane’ PPE firm”. “Nic told to ref off” – that’s the Scottish Sun on the referendum ruling – its southern sibling has a story about Jonnie Irwin: “Place In The Sun axed me after I got cancer”. Metro Scotland has Sturgeon being “Poll axed” as in poleaxed; everyone else gets “Referendum indy bin” in that paper. The Scottish Daily Mail deems it the “End of the road for Sturgeon”; over the border, “Drivers hit with 30,000 parking tickets EVERY day”. That’s enough side-by-side comparisons. The Mirror reports on the “Biggest phone fraud ever” with “70,000 Brits scammed” – that’s about iSpoof which has just been busted. “Britons told how to save energy” – the Times says there will be a national campaign to foil Putin’s gas “blackmail”. Hopeful news in the Daily Express: “New dementia drug could be ready next year”. “GPs to go on shame list over access” says the Telegraph as it reports NHS “gridlock” with patients unable to book in. Another day in the life of the PM in the i: “Sunak faces battle with unhappy Tory MPs”. No relief for him in today’s Financial Times: “Business and unions demand Sunak scraps planned bonfire of EU rules”.
Today in Focus
Is a second referendum on Scotland’s independence further away than ever?
The supreme court has ruled that the Scottish parliament cannot hold a second referendum without Westminster’s approval. Where does that leave the independence movement?
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Children will learn about biodiversity and nature in schools, and perhaps gain new green spaces in the playground, thanks to a new partnership between the Royal Horticultural Society (RHS), the Natural History Museum (NHM) and the government.
The plan is for students to map out the biodiversity in their schools and add it to a nationwide database, as well as supporting teachers to develop curriculum-based climate education resources and lesson plans. Ultimately, creating green spaces in schools goes beyond lesson plans and recording wildlife, said Clare Matterson, the director general at the RHS. “It’s an experience rather than a lesson to be taught – be it sitting in a green space and taking a moment to experience the sights, smells and sounds of nature, getting your hands dirty planting seeds or doing some pond-dipping.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
