Good morning. It’s local election day in England. As well as potholes, sewage and council tax, this vote is a crucial measure of how the leading parties are doing ahead of the next general election – and, as sure as eggs is eggs, they’re all saying how terrible things look for them today so that they can celebrate incredible success tomorrow.
In truth, the most likely result is a rough day for the Tories and some gains for Labour and the Lib Dems – but there is an awful lot to learn from just how big the swing turns out to be. Here’s a guide to the key results to look out for – and today’s newsletter is your one-stop shop to help make sense of it all. If there’s an election where you are, don’t forget to vote, and definitely don’t forget your ID. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Russia | Volodymyr Zelenskiy has denied Russian claims that Ukraine was involved in a drone attack on the Kremlin that was intended to kill the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Here’s what we know about the incident so far. Hours later, air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv for the fourth time in seven days, with explosions heard in the southern port city of Odesa.
Slavery | Some of Britain’s most elite schools benefited from slavery through substantial donations and endowments worth the equivalent of tens of millions of pounds today, research has found. Eton College, Christ’s Hospital school and Liverpool’s Blue Coat grammar are among 29 schools with significant links.
Serbia | A 14-year-old boy opened fire in a school in Belgrade, killing eight children and a school security guard and injuring a further six pupils as well as his teacher. Police said he used two of his father’s guns for the shooting and may have been plotting the attack for a month.
Coronation | The Metropolitan police has been accused of using the coronation to stage the biggest live facial recognition operation in British history. The force said on Wednesday it intended to use the controversial technology, which scans faces and matches them against a list of people police want for alleged crimes and could identify convicted terrorists mingling in the crowds.
Health | A new Alzheimer’s drug slowed cognitive decline by 35%, according to late-stage trial results, raising the prospect of a new effective treatment for the disease. The drug slowed progression of the condition by 35% to 36% compared with a placebo, with one expert saying “this could be the beginning of the end of Alzheimer’s disease.”
In depth: Set the bar low – but go for a ‘knockout blow’
***
Reading the results | The most useful comparison is 2019
While there have been several rounds of local elections since, to make sense of this set of results you need to compare them to 2019, the last time the same set of councils were contested. That was “a ‘plague on both your houses’ cycle”, Rob Ford wrote in an Observer analysis on Sunday, where Labour and Tories each lost ground amid frustration at the Brexit impasse. But it was particularly ugly for Theresa May’s Tories, who lost 1,300 seats.
Since Labour have recovered strongly in the polls since then while the Tories have regressed, that starting point should favour the opposition. An Opinium poll for the Observer at the weekend showed Labour’s lead over the Tories at 18 points, a four-point increase on a fortnight earlier. But national polling doesn’t necessarily translate to local results, and everyone would be surprised to see that sort of margin as the results come in.
One benchmark to keep in mind: local elections experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher told Pippa Crerar and Peter Walker that a 6% swing from Tories to Labour would mean the Conservatives losing 1,000 seats, and Labour gaining 700.
***
Expectations | Both parties are trying to set the bar low for success
That 1,000 seat figure has been mentioned by Conservatives seeking to frame the results ahead of time. Thrasher told Sky News: “If they can keep those losses down to around 500 to 700, they will feel that Labour isn’t really hurting them a great deal … if they can keep losses down below 500, they will probably believe that they’ve had a reasonably good night.”
Labour, meanwhile, suggests that a gain of 400 seats would represent good progress. On Monday, polling expert John Curtice told the BBC that Labour needed to gain about 500 seats to show that the party has a good chance of victory in the next general election.
Meanwhile, Green co-leader Adrian Ramsay suggested at the party’s campaign launch that success would be winning 100 extra seats. It gained 200 in 2019. And Reform UK is contesting a lot of seats in leave-supporting areas. Success for them would be giving the Tories a serious worry on their right flank. Ford has an excellent guide to what a good or bad night would look like for each party.
***
Conservatives | A measure of Sunak’s ability to turn things round
Rishi Sunak has stopped the bleeding – but there are concerns among some Tories that the party has become too optimistic about his ability to reverse the decline. One Sunak supporter told Peter Walker and Jessica Elgot: “I think colleagues are very much still in the denial stage where they are so relieved that the days of Liz [Truss] are over that they are able to blank out how badly we are going to lose.”
One measure of the Conservatives’ pessimism: when journalists sought to learn when Rishi Sunak would be launching his party’s campaign, they were told by Conservative headquarters that it had already happened – during a brief visit to the Black Country to which only local media was invited.
Meanwhile, several letter writers to the Guardian have noted that Conservative candidates in their seats are not mentioning their party affiliations. In Milton Keynes, “none of their leaflets mention the party, and they’re on the nomination list as ‘Local Conservatives’”, writes Paul Norris. “This is a clear attempt at distancing themselves from the governing party.”
While local issues are important, in most places it is national stories that are front of mind for most voters – and that will not help the party in government. Robyn Vinter’s dispatch from High Peak in Derbyshire, which has often switched between Labour and the Conservatives, emphasises that point. Asked how he will vote, Nigel Sowerbutt said: “Not Tory. Have you seen the state of the country?”
***
Labour | Starmer needs a “knockout blow”
Starmer (pictured above) knows that his party’s strong position is a trap when it comes to interpreting these results: it means that anything short of triumph might look like defeat. But it is fair to interpret their results through the prism of the mountain to climb to win the next election – with a bigger swing needed than Tony Blair managed in 1997. That means, Rob Ford wrote, that “nothing less than a knockout blow will do”.
Whatever the message from the centre, local candidates are less guarded. In Plymouth, Jamie Grierson reported, Labour campaigners “sense that this election is theirs to lose”. Canvassers tell him they are optimistic they can win the 12 out of 19 seats in contention that they need to take control of the council: “Last year, people were chasing Labour from their doorsteps,” says Tudor Evans, the party’s local leader. “This year, they are chasing them but to catch up and ask them for a poster to put in their window.”
***
Lib Dems | Hopes of picking off Tories in the “blue wall”
Most of the areas where the third party hopes to pick up seats are traditional Conservative heartlands where even the disillusioned are wary of Labour. But they have real hopes of making the kind of showing that could leave big Conservative names like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab anxious about their prospects in the general election.
Polly Toynbee went canvassing with the Liberal Democrats in Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath constituency, where the majority of Tory councillors are not standing again: “Running for the hills,” a Lib Dem tells her. “Before, there was no point in following the fortunes of forlorn opposition candidates trying to knock down impenetrable home-county blue walls,” she writes. “There is now.”
***
Tactical voting | Denied by the centre, but happening organically
Voters who hope that Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens will form the fabled “progressive alliance” might be cheered by places like Bracknell Forest, where, Michael Savage wrote in the Observer, only one of the three parties is standing in 12 of the 15 seats up for grabs.
“To believe that this arrangement is the result of some bizarre coincidence stretches credulity,” Michael wrote. Local party figures are unwilling to acknowledge as much on the record, but one tells him that “It’s really a story about how to make the best of it in a borough which is heavily skewed [towards the Tories]. Focus your attention on where you’re going to win.”
Labour and Lib Dem HQs fear that an explicit tactical alliance could be offputting for some of their target voters. But John Curtice told Polly Toynbee: “The last time I saw tactical voting on this scale was before the 1997 election when voters just wanted to get the Conservatives out.” Toynbee adds: “It needs no secret pacts, just each party reserving all energy for its own winnables.”
***
Voter ID | People may stay away – but it’s impossible to know how many
Today’s vote is also the first mass use of voter ID in the UK outside of Northern Ireland – and there are serious concerns about the impact.
The number of voters without the necessary ID is thought to be about 2 million; by 23 April, only 50,000 had applied for a special voter certificate that would be acceptable in lieu of ID. Gaby Hinsliff notes: “Those at greatest risk of disenfranchisement are … disproportionately likely to be unemployed, disabled or lacking educational qualifications, and those who have never voted before.”
The problem of voter impersonation is almost unknown in Britain. Official data released last month showed just seven allegations of “personation” at polling stations in 2022, with none leading to police action.
While the government has promised to review the system to see how many are disenfranchised under the new rules, last week a minister refused to say whether the number of voters turned away because they lack ID will be recorded. That suggests that the true extent of the problem may be very hard to gauge.
What else we’ve been reading
The climate crisis often feels like a gargantuan, unsolvable problem – too big to even start to tackle. Joe Fassler sets out the top five myths propagated by Big Beef (illustration above) to persuade customers that meat-eating has negligible impact on the planet. Nimo
For the long read, Justus Links writes about how years of cronyism and complacency under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan contributed to the damage caused by the recent earthquake in Turkey. Links asks: “What would the earthquake-stricken landscape look like if the construction industry had had to abide by building codes?” Archie
Online trading platforms are becoming an increasingly enticing way of pocketing some extra cash, but it comes with serious risk: “similarities between trading and gambling are hard to ignore”, Kirsty Major writes. Nimo
Daniel Cohen writes for the LRB about the staggering impact of Spotify – and the power of algorithms to shape our musical taste. An amazing stat: in response to the fact that artists only get paid if their songs are played for more than 30 seconds, the proportion of US Number Ones with a chorus starting within the first 15 seconds has risen from 20% in 2010 to 40% today. Archie
Johana Bhuiyan’s investigation into how a controversial technology company worked with Portland police to secure a city contract is a revealing insight into how a private company “effectively [circumvented] parts of the public procurement process”. Nimo
Sport
Premier league | Erling Haaland (above) broke the division’s goalscoring record with his 35th goal of the season in a 3-0 win over West Ham that sent Manchester City top. Jonathan Liew writes that “there is an element of theatre to Haaland in full flow: the visceral and often thrilling spectacle of a large man simply shrugging off other large men and whacking the ball into a net.” Meanwhile, Liverpool beat Fulham 1-0 thanks to a Mo Salah penalty.
Athletics | The former Olympic and world champion sprinter Tori Bowie has died at the age of 32. The discovery of her body in her Florida home prompted an outpouring of grief from her peers and the athletic community. A cause of death has not been released.
Football | Real Madrid are in advanced talks to sign Jude Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund. Bellingham has been a target for Premier League clubs including Manchester City but negotiations with Madrid are close to being secured, although no fee has been settled.
The front pages
“Revealed: the scale of elite school links to slave trade” is the Guardian’s Thursday lead story. Also on the front: “Police accused over facial recognition at coronation”. There’s bigger page one coverage of coronation security elsewhere. “Ring of steel throne around Charles” – that’s Metro with the dodgy throne/thrown pun. “Biggest security operation ever” says the Daily Mail, bringing to mind Trump’s inauguration and Sean Spicer. “King protest warning” says the Daily Mirror, adding police have promised “swift action” against anyone disrupting proceedings. Interesting angle taken by the i: “UK plan for Charles III to help lead Brexit detox with Europe” – that’s after his Germany visit went down well.
The Financial Times leads with “LSE chief seeks higher pay for bosses to stem listings exodus” which sounds somewhat tone-deaf. In the Daily Express there is “‘Real hope’ in battle to bet Alzheimer’s” as an antibody medication shows promise. “‘Best ever’ Alzheimer’s drug can halt disease” reports the Telegraph. That’s on the Times’ front too but its splash is “We cannot be party of nimbyism, Tories warn”, as “MPs fear dropping building targets will hit votes”.
Today in Focus
Cost of the crown part 4: calculating the king’s wealth
Maeve McClenaghan and the reporting team reach the end of their investigation and make the calculations that reveal the vast personal fortune of King Charles III
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
New York state has passed a climate bill that would scale up wind and solar energy projects. It signals a major step towards moving utilities out of private hands to become publicly owned. The Build Public Renewables Act compels the state’s public power provider to generate all of its electricity from clean energy by 2030, as well as allowing the public utilities to build and own renewables while phasing out fossil fuels.
This law is a result of years of grassroots campaigning by local climate and environmental organisers. It’s not only good for the environment and local residents, it also ensures the creation of union jobs for the renewable projects, guaranteeing pay-rate protection, offering retraining and making sure that new positions are filled with workers who have lost or would be losing employment in the non-renewable energy sector.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
