Good morning. When Joe Biden gave Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, a fist bump in Jeddah in July, it was viewed as a moment of excruciating realpolitik: Biden, who had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state over the assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, was instead palling around with the man believed to have ordered the hit. Today, that gambit appears to have failed – and the relationship is in tatters.
Biden visited Saudi Arabia in the hope of persuading the world’s largest oil producer to increase production and offset petrol costs rising as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, last week, Saudi Arabia and its allied oil producing nations in the Opec+ group – including Russia – agreed to a surprise reduction in supply that will push prices up. The undoubted beneficiary is Vladimir Putin.
In an interview on Monday, Biden threatened unspecified “consequences” for the Opec+ decision – and last night, US Democrats told Saudi Arabia that if they did not change course, they would force a one-year freeze on all arms sales. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s world affairs editor, Julian Borger, and Dr Neil Quilliam of Chatham House, is about why Mohammed bin Salman would risk one of Riyadh’s most crucial alliances to help the beleaguered Russian regime – and what the news will mean for oil prices and Russia’s ability to prosecute the war. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Environment | Earth’s wildlife populations have plunged by an average of 69% in just under 50 years, according to a leading scientific assessment, as humans continue to clear forests, consume beyond the limits of the planet and pollute on an industrial scale. Four years ago, the figure stood at 60%.
Politics | Liz Truss’ leadership was in fresh peril on Wednesday with calls growing among senior Conservatives to reverse more proposed tax cuts and MPs accusing her of “trashing” Conservative values. Meanwhile, the price of 20-year UK bonds hit new lows as the Bank of England insisted its £65bn support package would end on Friday.
US news | The conspiracy theorist Alex Jones should pay $965m (£870m) to people who suffered from his false claim that the Sandy Hook elementary school shooting was a hoax, a jury in Connecticut decided on Wednesday. That takes the total in damages awarded against Jones past $1bn.
Solar power | The prime minister is facing a rebellion from Jacob Rees-Mogg’s business department over plans to ban solar power from most of England’s farmland. Rees-Mogg is understood to believe it is “unconservative” to tell farmers what to do with their land.
Covid | The World Health Organization’s head, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has said that “immediate” action is needed to combat long Covid around the world. The WHO estimates between 10-20% of people who have had Covid-19 have mid- and long-term symptoms such as fatigue, breathlessness and cognitive dysfunction.
In depth: ‘More than a bet on Russia, this is a bet on Trump’
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How do Opec and Opec+ work?
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries was founded in 1960, as a way to force oil prices up in response to US import caps and the huge influence of multinational oil and gas companies. Today, there are 13 member states, with Saudi Arabia the most influential. Russia is part of an expanded group of oil exporters, Opec+, which was founded in 2016 as a way to counter big new challenges to Opec’s ability to control the market, from the emergence of the US as a major exporter to the growth of renewable energy. This Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder provides a more detailed history.
Economists tend to view Opec and Opec+ as textbook examples of a cartel: member countries agree to coordinate their production of oil in order to influence prices. Opec+ states control about 50% of all crude oil, and 90% of proven reserves; when they slash output, as they did last week, that pushes the cost up.
Kuwait’s acting oil minister, Mohammed al-Fares, described that as a measure to “maintain balance between supply and demand”; Carole Nakhle, head of consultancy firm Crystol Energy, told Al Jazeera that explanation was inadequate. “The market always balances itself,” she said. “The difference is that if you leave it to the market, it might give you a price that is much lower than what Opec wants to see.”
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Why has this decision caused such turmoil?
Opec has been an accepted feature of the marketplace for oil for decades – but the context for this decision is very different. As well as pushing up petrol prices – and by extension inflation – at a time of economic turmoil, the move is of huge benefit to Russia.
After European countries started to reduce their imports, Moscow’s income from oil fell significantly. Crucially, although Opec and Opec+ nominally cut production by 2m barrels a day, Russia was already producing well below its quota, meaning that this decision will allow it to produce more oil for a higher price.
The news has been particularly poorly received in the US, where the likely consequence of rising petrol prices are painful for Joe Biden ahead of crucial midterm elections. It may also be viewed as a humiliation given Biden’s decision this summer to U-turn on his campaign promise to marginalise Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, over the death of Jamal Khashoggi – instead visiting Jeddah, giving MBS a fist bump, and urging him to increase oil production.
“There was a lot of opposition to that among Democrats – and there was the whole moral dimension, of the war in Yemen and the death of Khashoggi,” Julian Borger said. “He expended a lot of political capital to make that trip. Democratic senators feel they have held back considerably to give Biden some latitude on this.”
Even within Opec+, there will be some disquiet, Dr Neil Quilliam said by email. “There will undoubtedly be unease among member states about the strength of the US response, even if members agreed with the market forecasts that led the Saudi Arabia to champion this position. Kuwait, for example, which continues to place a very high value on its relationship with the US will no doubt be unnerved by the current situation.”
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What is Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Russia like?
Those who viewed Biden’s trip to Jeddah as doomed from the start might have pointed to a $500m investment by a Saudi firm in Russian oil giants Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict – or Riyadh’s decision in the summer to double purchases of Russian oil for its power plants to free up more of its own crude to export.
Meanwhile, the president of close Opec ally the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited Moscow on Tuesday for face-to-face talks with Vladimir Putin. All of that indicates that Saudi Arabia and its partners have made a decisive shift towards Russia this year.
Partly, that’s a cold economic calculation based on a shared interest in high oil prices. “But it’s also an illiberal alliance,” Julian said. “They see the US and its allies’ pressure for democratic reforms as an insult, and they have come together in the past on social conservatism. They see themselves as representing a hedge against US thinking around the world.”
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How will the US and its allies respond?
In his interview on Monday, Joe Biden threatened “consequences” for the squeeze on oil production, without specifying what they might be. Senior Democrats in Congress are demanding radical action which would have a material impact on Saudi Arabia’s economy, and its military strength.
Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the foreign relations committee, said he would vote to block future arms sales, while the New York Times reported that the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, was “seriously considering” legislation that would allow lawsuits for price fixing against the Saudis. And, in this piece, Senator Richard Blumenthal and Representative Ro Khanna call for legislation forcing an immediate halt to all US arms sales, arguing that it would take decades for Riyadh to transition to alternative suppliers and MBS would have no choice but to negotiate.
Julian thinks that “this is a bipartisan issue, at least for the time being – Republicans would support this sort of action”. But he points to another possible factor in the Opec+ decision: MBS’s calculation that a Trump presidency, and Republican control of Congress, would be beneficial. Through the likely impact on US petrol prices, “they’re putting their thumb on the scale of the US election,” Julian said. “More than a bet on Russia, this is a bet on the Republicans, and especially Trump.”
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What happens next?
This is not a “no turning back” moment, Quilliam said: “US Saudi relations will recover,” partly because the relationship between the two countries is much more deeply embedded in both their institutions. But it is a “hairline fracture”, he added. “The damage with the Biden administration cannot be repaired, and successive Democratic administrations will likely remember this moment.”
On Tuesday, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, insisted that the relationship with the US “has been institutional since it was established” and claimed the Opec+ decision was “purely economic”. Last night, they joined an overwhelming UN vote to condemn Russia’s annexation of parts of Ukraine, which was “a way to show they’re still willing to do business”, Julian said.
To assess Saudi Arabia’s likely path forwards, he added, it’s important to remember that “through every downward turn of the relationship since the death of Khashoggi, MBS has shown himself to be defiant. There seems to be this very personal sense that he was not respected.” In this excellent analysis, Martin Chulov argues that his ambition is for Saudi Arabia to “no longer be a Flintstones-like theocracy that eschewed progress and hid behind a US security umbrella … but a wealthy middle power in its own right that chose its friends, on its own terms.”
In the short term, that appears to be good news for Russia, and bad news for the US and its allies. In the longer term, a fractured relationship could be disastrous for Saudi Arabia. “MBS is not a strategic thinker,” Julian said. “He is the one who got the Saudis into the incredibly costly Yemen war; the killing of Khashoggi shows him lashing out against perceived enemies. If he’s making an economic bet on Russia, it does look at the moment like he’s backing the wrong horse.”
What else we’ve been reading
Gloria Scott (pictured above) worked with the best: Tina Turner, Stevie Wonder, Barry White, the Supremes. But after her debut album, she seemingly disappeared from the music scene. Alexis Petridis delves into Scott’s career, and why, 48 years later, she has released a new album. Nimo
Kieran Morris’ long read in search of the “Honduran Maradona”, a footballer whose reputation he and his mates burnished by planting tips with unsuspecting journalists when they were teenagers, is a total joy. Read it immediately. Archie
Homes in predominately black and Vietnamese neighbourhoods in New Orleans are sinking because of industrial water use in the city. Sara Sneath spoke with residents who are left to deal with the impact. Nimo
If anybody has ever been more miserable on a German exchange than the 14-year-old Adrian Chiles, I am yet to hear about it. This funny, poignant piece works through the origin story of his relationship with alcohol on a Leonberg brewery tour. Archie
Liz Truss’s plan to block solar farms has proven to be deeply unpopular with almost everyone. In this brilliant analysis, Simon Evans unpacks the motivations for this “almost unthinkable” policy. Nimo
Sport
Football | Mo Salah scored the fastest hat-trick in Champions League history as Liverpool dispatched Rangers 7-1 at Ibrox. Meanwhile, a goal from Harry Kane and two from Heung-Min Son helped Tottenham Hotspur to a 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. And Robin Gosens thought he had won it for Inter against Barcelona with an 89th minute goal - only for Robert Lewandowski to make it 3-3 in injury time.
Cricket | Dawid Malan hit 82 from 49 balls to help England beat Australia by eight runs and complete a Twenty20 series victory. Sam Curran took 3-25 off his four overs to secure the win.
Rugby | Wasps are set to enter administration in the coming days and will be condemned to relegation from the Premiership as a result. The news follows Worcester Warriors’s suspension and relegation after they also went into administration.
The front pages
This morning’s Guardian front page says “Truss faces new peril as Tories go on the attack over economy”. The Times splashes with “Rip up your tax plans, top officials urge Truss”. “Truss told to see sense – U-turn or you go” is how the Mirror renders it, while the i has “Tories in open revolt against prime minister”. “Blue wall falls” – the Metro says Truss’s mini-budget has heartland Tory seats swinging to Labour. “Truss faces mounting Tory pressure to rewrite unfunded tax-cut plans” – that’s the Financial Times’ well-rounded treatment, while the Daily Express tries to draw fire away from the PM with “Angry Tories attack Bank chief’s ‘stupid’ move”. The paper says Andrew Bailey “sparked a plunge in the pound” by announcing emergency support for UK government bonds will end.
Elsewhere, the Daily Mail asks “Could Camilla have to swap her crown?”, reporting that the Koh-i-Noor diamond might not be used in the Queen Consort’s coronation headpiece because of “political sensitivities”. The Telegraph carries the same story under the headline “Coronation row looms over crown for Queen”. The Sun has “Strictly Helen’s new heartache” about the subject’s former marriage.
Today in Focus
Putin’s revenge for the Crimea bridge attack
A series of missile attacks killed civilians across Ukraine this week as Russia responded to the bombing of a key bridge in Crimea. Luke Harding reports on what the escalation from Putin means for the war
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
For years the top seat at the Royal Institute of British Architects has been reserved for longstanding committee members or established architects with eponymous practices. Unsurprisingly this has meant that only three women, and one non-white person, have occupied the role of president. Enter Muyiwa Oki, the first black president of RIBA, and at 31, the youngest.
Oki was backed by a radical network of pressure groups that have mobilised a younger generation of architects who feel overworked and underpaid.“It feels like our time has come,” Oki says.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
