Good morning. Yesterday afternoon, Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed the World Economic Forum conference at Davos – and as well as presiding over a minute’s silence to mark the dreadful Kyiv helicopter crash that killed at least 14 people including interior minister Denys Monastyrsky, he had a specific request.
“Tyranny is outpacing democracy,” he said. “The supply of western tanks must outpace another invasion of Russian tanks.”
But a few minutes earlier, German chancellor Olaf Scholz had made his own Davos speech – and until he was asked about it by a Ukrainian delegate, did not mention his country’s crucial Leopard 2 tanks at all. Rather than commit to sending them, he said: “We are never doing something just by ourselves, but together with others”.
Ukraine has been making similar pleas since the war began, with limited success. Now the tide appears to be turning – but Germany’s decision remains absolutely crucial. Tomorrow, at a meeting of western defence ministers, they will come under renewed pressure to act.
So what’s changed? And why is Germany such a vital player? For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Yohann Michel, research analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, about a crucial factor in the next phase of the war in Ukraine. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Jacinda Ardern | New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern has said she is resigning, in a shock announcement that came as she confirmed a national election for October this year. At the Labour party’s annual caucus meeting, Ardern said she “no longer had enough in the tank” to do the job.
Environment | Carbon offsets approved by the world’s leading provider and used by corporations like Disney, Shell, and Gucci are largely worthless, according to a new investigation. Analysis found that 90% of Verra’s rainforest offset credits are likely to be “phantom credits” which do not constitute genuine carbon reductions.
Strikes | The NHS is facing a day of massive disruption next month when nurses and ambulance staff in England and Wales stage an unprecedented joint strike over pay. It will be the first time that nurses and ambulance workers, including paramedics and call handlers, have refused to work at the same time.
UK politics | Rishi Sunak’s wealthy rural constituency is receiving £19m from the latest round of levelling up funding, prompting accusations of favouritism towards Conservative seats. Downing Street denied reports on Wednesday that Tory MPs in marginal seats had been told to stop saying “levelling up” because voters did not know what it meant.
Julian Sands | British actor Julian Sands has been reported missing after hiking in the San Gabriel mountains on Friday, according to the county sheriff’s department. The 65-year-old actor, known for his roles in A Room with a View, The Killing Fields, and Naked Lunch, lives in North Hollywood.
In depth: ‘Russia is planning a long war. Ukraine needs to be ready to fight a long war too’
Russia’s failure to assert air superiority has defied predictions that Ukrainian tanks would be taken out with ease. Now, after stagnation over the winter, there are predictions both of a Russian spring attack and a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
RUSI’s Jack Watling, writing for the Observer on Sunday, said that putting Kyiv in the best possible position before possible Russian reinforcements later in the year involves “maximising the gains achievable in the spring and limiting the cost in Ukrainian lives for an offensive”. Tanks could be central to that.
“You need a platform that is protected enough to survive small to medium calibre enemy fire,” said Yohann Michel. “You need something that is mobile, that provides covering fire, that is powerful enough to take out the enemy’s own tanks. And whatever we say from our desks, the Ukrainians still want them, and that’s because they have the proof in front of them of their value.”
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What does Ukraine need?
Ukraine already has Soviet-era tanks, including many it has captured from Russia: in October, the British Ministry of Defence estimated that 440 captured “main battle tanks” made up more than half its active fleet. But more modern western tanks would be technically superior.
“They have thermal imaging, which makes it easier to fight at night and fire at longer range,” Michel said, “they have better stabilised guns which mean you can fire on the move or soon after moving, which is very important: if you break enemy lines and confront an enemy in open fields, you want to be the first to shoot.”
But much more important, Michel said, is ammunition – and supplies for the 125mm guns on Ukraine’s current fleet are running low. Nato-provided tanks mean compatibility with standard Nato 120mm calibre ammunition.
“You can have less powerful tanks – it’s providing ammunition that’s the gamechanger,” Michel said. “I can’t stress that enough. And you need to be able to have the same logistical support in place across as many of the tanks as possible.”
The most plausible candidate to fulfil those criteria is the German manufactured Leopard 2, with 2,300 held by 16 Nato countries (though some are in a state of disrepair) – a blogpost by Michel, Bastian Giegerich and Michael Tong for IISS last week provides a full list.
The US M1 Abrams tank could be another option, but the US has shown no willingness to send them, and they are heavier and require significantly more fuel to run. It may also be more plausible to send tanks from a number of Nato countries, spreading the risk and political cost.
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What are western countries doing?
The UK promised 14 Challenger 2 tanks on Saturday – the first time western-made tanks have been provided to Ukraine since the war began. While they would be of limited benefit given no other western country has the same kind of tank, that is still a significant symbolic shift.
Poland wants to provide 14 of the German-made Leopard 2s (pictured above), while Finland has also signalled its willingness to do so. Ukraine has also been promised lighter armoured fighting vehicles from the US, France, and Germany.
While all of that provides meaningful reinforcements, as the Guardian’s defence editor Dan Sabbagh set out in this analysis on Monday, it falls well short of the requested 300 tanks and 600 fighting vehicles which Ukraine says it needs to make a significant breakthrough. If this figure is not realistic, that IISS blog cites a ballpark figure of 100 tanks as necessary “to have any significant effect on the fighting”.
While it is often said that there is a “taboo” on providing tanks for fear of Russian escalation, Michel argues that Poland’s provision last April of 240 Soviet-style tanks is evidence to the contrary. “This taboo doesn’t exist,” he said. “It is getting hard to use as an excuse.”
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Why is Germany’s decision so important?
It’s not just that it has more than 300 Leopard 2s of its own: until Berlin grants permission, no other country can send the same model to Ukraine. Other countries with Leopard 2s, like Spain, appear to be unwilling to make a commitment until they hear the same from Berlin. So far, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to do it.
In this piece urging Scholz to act, Timothy Garton Ash notes that Germany has already “moved a very long way” and is among Ukraine’s leading donors on defence and humanitarian aid. The recent decision to send 40 armoured vehicles – along with a Patriot air-defence system – was seen by some as an overdue breakthrough.
In an interview with Bloomberg this week, Scholz reiterated that any increase in military aid would be in concert with its allies, saying: “We are never going alone. This is necessary in a very difficult situation like this.” He stuck to that line in Davos.
But the pressure is growing. The European parliament passed a resolution on Wednesday calling for Scholz to initiate a European consortium to deliver the tanks “without further delay”. A meeting of defence ministers at a US airbase in Germany on Friday is likely to provide more evidence of international support and make Germany’s reluctance harder to sustain.
Meanwhile, the UK’s announcement about Challenger 2s at the weekend was followed by a promise from defence secretary Ben Wallace to “urge my German friends” to allow the export of Leopard 2s. “I know there have been concerns in the German political body that they don’t want to go alone,” Wallace said. “Well, they’re not alone.”
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What would it take to get tanks into combat?
Even if Germany gives the OK, it will take time to get those tanks into service. Nato tanks are more than 20 tonnes heavier than Ukraine’s current force: “There is a problem with the number of bridges you can cross,” Michel said. “You need transportation trucks, or specific barges.” So engineering and support vehicles would also be needed.
Then there’s the training required for Ukrainian tank crews. That takes a minimum of 3-6 weeks, said Michel. “But ideally you would want longer for crews to work together as a unit.” If Berlin sanctions the provision of Leopard 2s by other countries but will not send its own, it can still help by providing training. “It’s important to train on the same or similar tanks,” Michel said. “If you need to press a button on your right, you don’t want to be looking to your left when you’re under stress.”
If Germany is not willing to provide part of its own stock immediately, he added, their contribution could still be critical in the future. “In six months, Ukraine will have lost tanks,” he said. “They will need more. Russia is planning to fight a long war. Ukraine needs to be ready to fight a long war as well.”
What else we’ve been reading
As Jacinda Ardern (above) steps down, Morgan Godfery writes that for her work dealing with the pandemic, climate change and the Christchurch massacre, she was “the most important prime minister in New Zealand’s postwar history”. Archie
“It is impossible to understand China without understanding the Cultural Revolution,” writes Tania Branigan – but “Over time, fear, guilt and official suppression have pushed it into the shadows.” This remarkable extract from her forthcoming book attempts to bring it to light. Archie
As dating apps reach saturation point, many people are finding the process of swiping arduous and time consuming. Lizzie Cernik spoke to the people who deleted their accounts and watched their love lives transform. Nimo
The housing journalist Peter Apps knows as much about the causes of the Grenfell disaster as anyone. In this piece, he argues that the government’s appetite for post-Brexit deregulation ignores the way an “effective moratorium” on fire safety rules played a crucial part in the fire. Archie
January is objectively the worst month of the year. It’s dark all the time, it’s cold and no one wants to hang out. But if you want to shake off the post-Christmas blues then read this piece that sets out 50 ways to get out of your fun rut. Nimo
Sport
Tennis | Emma Raducanu (above) is out of the Australian Open after her defeat to No 7 seed Coco Gauff. Raducanu, who lost 6-3, 7-6, said that she remained optimistic about her future despite the loss: “I’m putting in a good system in place, and I’m really buying into and trusting the work that I’m doing.”
Football | Just when it looked as if Manchester United had found their mojo again, a stunning late free-kick from Michael Olise denied Erik Ten Hag’s side second place in the Premier League, landing them with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace. Meanwhile, Leeds took home a convincing 5-2 win against Cardiff in the FA Cup third round.
Boxing | Ahead of his fight against Liam Smith on Saturday, Chris Eubank Jr gives an interesting interview to Donald MacRae that touches on the cancellation of his fight with Conor Benn, the death of his brother, and his fears over brain trauma. “I’ve got another, God willing, 60-plus years left on the planet,” he says. “That life won’t be about boxing or getting hit on the head.”
The front pages
With the latest on the ongoing industrial action across the NHS, the Guardian leads with “Nurses and ambulance staff to stage unprecedented joint strike”. The Mirror meanwhile reports, “Rich Tory tells skint nurses: budget better”.
The Times looks at disquiet among the Tory backbenchers, under the headline “Levelling-up cash favours southeast over red wall”. The Mail claims Tory MP’s are pleading with the Treasury to change tack: “Cut taxes or lose election, Tories warned”. The Telegraph says “Dyson: Stupid short-sighted policies holding back economy”, with comments from the British businessman.
The i reports “Prepay meter scandal grows: 99.99% of court warrants are waved through”. The Financial Times says “Starmer heads for Davos on mission to repair ties with EU and global finance”.
Finally, the Sun carries a “Lineker Exclusive”, with the latest on the “porn” prank on the Match of the Day studios, under the headline “Yes! Yes! Yes!”
Today in Focus
David Carrick and the crisis of trust in British policing
The conviction of PC David Carrick for 85 crimes against 12 women, whom he terrorised through violence, abuse, coercion and humiliation, has shaken the Metropolitan police.
The Guardian’s Emine Sinmaz tells Nosheen Iqbal about how she spoke to one of Carrick’s victims who ultimately did not proceed as a witness in the case, while crime correspondent Vikram Dodd describes how Carrick’s crimes have pitched the Met into a new crisis.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
As designers sent their pieces down the runway in Milan for mens fashion week, one piece of footwear stole the show. In slime green, blue and yellow, models strutted wearing Northern Irish designer JW Anderson’s frog-faced wellies.
Made in collaboration with British brand Wellipets, Anderson decided to revive the nostalgic clog, which tapped into his “homely and childhood memories”. Anderson said it felt like they made sense in a show that challenged gender norms (frogs can be intersex). Bringing some whimsy and levity to fashion week, the amphibious boots are part of a track record the designer has developed of turning silly jokes into high fashion.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
