Good morning. Well, he’s definitely getting the barnacles off the boat. 44 members of the government have resigned in less than 30 hours. Boris Johnson stormed past the previous record for the number of ministerial resignations in a single day with the departure of Mims Davies from the Department for Work and Pensions at 2.26pm; then they, and he, just kept going.
Not content with this unprecedented performance, the prime minister further streamlined operations by firing Michael Gove shortly before the 10 o’clock news, boldly seizing back the initiative by forcing the Levelling Up bill committee to cancel a hearing tomorrow because there were no ministers left to attend it. Gove had committed the cardinal sin of confronting Johnson with reality, and got called a “snake” for his troubles. The last person to resign was health minister Edward Argar, at 10.45pm, and the departures only seem to have paused because everyone’s gone to sleep.
Somehow, somehow, Boris Johnson is still in place, hunkering down in the No 10 bunker while Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries bring him news of successes on the eastern front. The normal phrase for prime ministers in this situation is “in office, but not in power”; this one is inoperable, but not inanimate.
As ever, head to the website for the very latest. Today’s newsletter will set out the arguments he is trying to make to hold on to his job, the reasons they are certainly specious, and explain what might happen next. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Criminal justice | Secretly videoing or taking photographs of people under their clothes or sharing “deepfake” pornography without consent could lead to prison sentences of up to three years, under new recommendations by the Law Commission of England and Wales.
Coronavirus | Holidaymakers heading to and from the European mainland are being warned of a growing incidence of coronavirus, especially in tourist hotspots, which risks hampering travel plans.
Security | Boris Johnson has admitted for the first time that he had met ex-KGB agent Alexander Lebedev at an Italian palazzo without officials present in April 2018, when he was foreign secretary. Johnson was responding to questions at the Commons liaison committee on Wednesday.
Highland Park shooting | The man charged with killing seven people at a Fourth of July parade in a Chicago suburb has confessed to the mass murder and revealed that he also considered attacking a second parade in Wisconsin, authorities said on Wednesday.
Ukraine | Nearly 9 million people have left Ukraine since Vladimir Putin invaded, the UN refugee agency has said, as the governor of Donetsk called on civilians still in the region to flee.
In depth: Would he dare to embarrass the Queen?
“Maybe this is a good opportunity to slim down government,” one senior No 10 source apparently suggested last night, with the kind of touching optimism familiar to any observer of information ministries in failed states. The last graph that looked like this was published on the day they removed the energy price cap:
Rolling news broadcasts had a madcap, end of days feel, nicely captured by the BBC’s unsuspecting anchor Tim Willcox, shown here as a brief break from normal operations accidentally made it to air:
Newsnight got the Comical Ali of the situation, dogged Johnson defender Peter Bone, on to explain why, in fact, it was business as usual. “You have to remember that there are 350-odd Conservative MPs and you have a few of them who have resigned,” the backbencher said. “But there was a vote of confidence a few weeks ago, and Boris won it.”
The reality is that Johnson would now lose by a mile. But, as ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman wrote, he does not appear likely to accept this if 1922 Committee chair Graham Brady sets out the facts: “This is the equivalent of handing a bottle of whisky and a revolver to the condemned man. Johnson will presumably first drink the whisky and then shoot Brady – metaphorically, that is”.
The arguments enlisted by Johnson to support his decision to stay in spite of all this are specious, but they exist, so here’s what you need to know about them:
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Why Johnson claims he can stay
When he appeared before the House of Commons liaison committee yesterday afternoon, Johnson did seem to show some basic awareness of the theoretical concept of political mortality, musing: “all flesh is grass”. In practice, he appears to believe he’s made of titanium. It’s worth quoting the argument given by a No 10 source to the BBC last night in all its frothingly chaotic glory, with a great big ‘sic’ applying to the whole thing:
There is no lectern outside No10 tonight the PM fights on, there will be a couple of appointments tonight. But it’s not true – a procession of cabinet ministers telling him to go is not true. You will find out – some may have been beyond redemption but he’s been spelling out to them that 14 mil people voted for him and if the party want to deprive him doing that job they will have to take that mandate off them. He’s called their bluff. Graham Brady said there’s a 1922 election on Monday, new 1922 Committee by Tuesday, that committee could decide to change the rules. Momentum tonight is not going to dislodge him. As he explained to cabinet ministers tonight the chance is not Boris or no Boris the choice is giving him a new change with a fresh chancellor and new programme that Rishi was not prepared to do, tax cuts, or spend months ripping each other apart to elect a leader without a mandate – coalition of chaos and Labour who will break up Britain. That’s the real choice. It’s time the party gets real with that.
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Why all of this is nonsense
1. Johnson did not fill any vacancies last night, despite that promise. His grip on power is so tenuous that even his new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi visited to “stress the challenge of governing, given how many frontbenchers have resigned”. He now has cabinet vacancies in the Wales office and the department for levelling up, and more may very likely follow today. Government has plainly ground to a halt, and he can’t just make this meme about Dorries doing literally everything a reality.
2. It is, in fact, true that a procession of cabinet ministers told him to go: as well as Gove and Zahawi, they included Priti Patel, Grant Shapps, Brandon Lewis, and attorney general Suella Braverman, who also announced her own leadership bid on Robert Peston’s ITV show last night. (She will also be appearing on the Today programme this morning.) These are not the usual suspects.
3. While 14m people may have voted for Johnson in 2019, opinion polls suggest that he is now very unpopular. Comfortable majorities think he should resign, including most who backed him in the last election.
4. The warning to MPs that a snap election is the inevitable result of his own removal is not required in the constitution, or borne out by history. Andrew Sparrow, the Stakhanovite anchor of the Guardian’s live blog, provided a good summary of why this and other election-based arguments don’t stand up.
5. The claim that the best way forward is simply to fall in behind the leader and get enthused by his promise of tax cuts is simply not credible. Even some of those on the right of the party who are animated by this economic argument above anything else have recognised that Johnson is no longer a realistic vessel for their ambitions. They will feel that they have a better chance of being realised if they unite behind a new candidate who can assemble a team to enact their policy ambitions.
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What happens next
There will probably be more resignations today, while Johnson may find some warm bodies to fill a few of the open berths. As explained above, his arguments will be harder to sustain if some of them are at cabinet level, and cannot be filled.
Even his own officials acknowledge that if the 1922 Committee changes its rules and allows a new confidence vote on Monday, his position will become untenable if he loses. He will certainly lose any such vote. Technically – and we’re into extreme norm-breaking territory here – he could attempt to stay on as prime minister even after he is replaced as party leader. But as wild as his behaviour has been in the last 48 hours, that doesn’t seem likely. Either way, it’s surreal to imagine that the current state of utter dysfunction could drag on for another five days.
The other prospect that has come under discussion is whether Johnson might try to force a new general election if he lost a confidence vote, out of … hubris? Spite? Pyromaniac excitement? He ruled that out in front of the liaison committee yesterday. Even if he wanted to do so, it seems likely that he would fail: the monarch and her advisers would likely conclude without fear of widespread contradiction that he had failed to reach the necessary bar.
For what it’s worth, Johnson’s former adviser Dominic Cummings says that Johnson would be dissuaded from attempting this by the prospect of “putting [the Queen] in an embarrassing position” (although that didn’t stop his unlawful suspension of parliament in 2019). If Cummings is right, we may have discovered a line that Johnson will not cross. But there are plenty more depths to plumb before we get there.
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Read more on Johnson’s refusal to leave
Jessica Elgot’s ticktock of a surreal day.
Rowena Mason’s assessment of the leadership race.
Heather Stewart’s analysis of Johnson’s hopeless prospects.
Aditya Chakrabortty’s column arguing that Johnson’s enablers also deserve opprobrium.
Peter Walker’s resignation explainer.
What else we’ve been reading
Umpires are just much more interesting than top tennis players, even in Wimbledon fortnight: what an incredibly weird thing to want to do! William Ralston’s long read about them, for which he was granted remarkable access, is totally riveting. Archie
Amid talk of a “negative child benefit” and the fallout of the repeal of Roe v Wade, Hollie Richardson’s deep dive into TV’s problem with childfree women is both timely and bang on the money. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Jonathan Jones’s interview with exiled cigarette enthusiast David Hockney is pretty relentlessly entertaining. Although somebody should tell him he can smoke at home in the UK, too. Archie
Martin Kettle reads Sajid Javid’s resignation letter as a guide to the likely future of the Conservative party after Johnson: “Low-tax, low-regulation Conservatism.” But he adds: “There is far more at stake in our politics right now than the future of one disreputable man’s incontinent ego”. Archie
An art collective producing challenging video collage certainly won’t be to everyone’s taste, but Oliver Basciano’s interview with the duo behind the Otolith Group is a fascinating insight into what goes into making their politically charged, supremely highbrow work: “we reject the idea that people cannot understand complexity.” Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Sport
Football | Beth Mead continued to stamp on her disappointment at missing out on a place at the Olympic Games last summer by opening England’s account at the home Women’s European Championship in a 1-0 defeat of Austria in front of a record crowd at Old Trafford.
Tennis | Rafael Nadal fought through injury to beat Taylor Fritz in five sets in their Wimbledon quarter-final. He will play Nick Kyrgios, who beat Christian Garín in straight sets, in the semi. Simona Halep will play Elena Rybakina in the semi-finals of the women’s draw.
Football | Chelsea are closing in on the signing of Raheem Sterling after agreeing personal terms with the Manchester City forward. Chelsea are aiming to finalise a fee of about £45m today.
The front pages
“Desperate, deluded PM clings to power” the Guardian’s front page says this morning, while the Times goes with “Johnson fights for his life” and shows the aforesaid with his fists clenched. Same photo in the Telegraph where the headline is “Mortally wounded PM defies Cabinet demands that he quit”. The Metro has “Get exit done Boris” with a strap above saying “Cabinet urge PM to quit”. Similar treatment in the Mirror: “Just get exit done” with the strap “Even now, PM refuses to go”. “Boris stares down the mutiny” says the Mail, wherein the latest scenes are portrayed as a “Battle for the soul of the Tories”. The Sun has what it calls “Defiant Boris’s message to Tory rebels … You’ll have to dip your hands in blood to get rid of me” – though it reports the words as coming from a “key ally” rather than Johnson himself. “Cabinet coup” says the i while the Express has “PM’s last stand: Back me or face political oblivion”. The splash headline in the Financial Times is “Johnson rocked by cabinet revolt”.
Today in Focus
Boris Johnson clings on against the odds
Boris Johnson’s premiership is hanging by a thread as his ministerial colleagues resign and call for him to go. Gaby Hinsliff explains how it came to this.
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
On the eve of the Women’s Euros, Sophie Downey wrote for the Guardian’s women’s football newsletter, Moving the Goalposts, on her awe at covering the tournament, which “seemed an impossible dream” as a young girl. Invoking memories of legends like Hope Powell and Kelly Smith, Team GB beating Brazil at the 2012 Olympics and the painful semi-final losses of recent years, Downey says these Euros will transform the sport forever – for players, fans, and young women watching at home.
“As I sit there, absorbing it all, I will remember that young girl who, because of this game, has seen her dreams turn into reality.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
