It was three years ago this week that Wayne Pivac began his reign as Wales coach, having taken over from Warren Gatland after the 2019 World Cup.
He arrives at his anniversary in a precarious position following last weekend’s shock defeat to Georgia, which leaves him with just three wins from 11 matches in the calendar year.
His future will be decided by a post-autumn review, making the outcome of Saturday’s final game of the campaign against Australia all the more important.
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So just how has he fared during his three years in charge? What kind of player depth has he built, what game-plan has he developed, what has he got right and what have been his biggest mistakes? Here’s the story so far.
The playing record
Including his opening uncapped game against the Barbarians on November 30, 2019, former Scarlets coach Pivac has been at the helm for 34 matches. The record reads: Won 14, Drawn 1, Lost 19.
As for the victories, there have been three against Italy, two over Scotland and one apiece versus South Africa, Australia, Ireland, England, Argentina, Fiji, Georgia and Canada, plus the Baa-Baas, with the solitary draw coming against the Pumas.
Turning to the defeats, this year’s landmark losses at home to Italy and Georgia have been the most seismic and the most damaging, while Wales have twice shipped more than 50 points against the coach’s native New Zealand.
The huge number of players
Pivac has fielded no fewer than 80 different players during his 34 matches, a pretty startling tally, handing first caps to 29 of them, through from Johnny McNicholl to the latest debutant Dafydd Jenkins.
On the face of it, that would point to him having built real depth, but when you look in more detail a slightly contrary picture emerges. It also indicates how much he has chopped and changed on the selection front, amid an at-times glaring lack of continuity, with a number of players coming in only to disappear from view.
You have the likes of Ioan Lloyd who burst onto the scene as the latest bright young thing in the autumn of 2020 but hasn’t featured again since then, with Shane Lewis-Hughes, Jarrod Evans, Tom Rogers and James Botham in a similar kind of category, along with the discarded and now ineligible Jonah Holmes.
A number of other players have recently slipped out of the reckoning after being on board for much of Pivac’s tenure, such as Ross Moriarty, Gareth Davies, Aaron Wainwright, Jonathan Davies, Callum Sheedy, Seb Davies, Rhys Carre, Willis Halaholo and McNicholl.
Certain positions, in particular, have seen a huge amount of tinkering and toing and froing, notably scrum-half, centre, blindside flanker and loosehead prop. Now part of that has been down to injuries, but it’s also at times suggested a lack of certainty in which way to go. It’s a revolving door scenario which has contributed to huge player turnover.
It’s revealing to look at the men who have been the mainstays of Pivac’s reign, the ones who have generally been on board when available. Way out in front, with 24 starts, is Dan Biggar, who has been his consistent go-to at No 10 and his captain through 2022, up until the knee injury that has ruled him out of this autumn campaign.
Then you’ve got Josh Adams, with Louis Rees-Zammit, Taulupe Faletau, Nick Tompkins, Adam Beard, Will Rowlands and Tomos Williams not far behind, while George North, Liam Williams and Justin Tipuric have also been consistent selections when fit, the same generally applying to Alun Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis up until the last couple of weeks.
When you look at the players he has introduced to Test rugby, Rowlands and Tompkins have been big plusses, with Pivac deserving credit for being aware of their Welsh family roots and bringing them on board. Rees-Zammit has clearly been a huge addition to the group, while Taine Basham, Kieran Hardy, Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell and, most recently, Rio Dyer have contributed significantly.
But there are others who have come and gone and you do wonder whether they will be seen again on the international stage.
The repeated rotation and the way some experienced players have fallen out of favour ends up with the kind of situation you had at the weekend where Wales finished the game against Georgia with a relative rookie front five and the visitors took full advantage, producing a series of scrum shoves to take them over the winning line.
Less a year out from the World Cup, there’s still a fair degree of uncertainty over the make-up of the final group that will head out to France. So, all in all, it’s been a real mixed bag when it comes to Pivac’s squad building process.
The game plan
It’s been quite difficult to work out just what the game-plan is at times over the past three years and there have certainly been occasions when you’ve struggled to see a discernible strategy.
Tellingly, the high points of Pivac’s tenure - the 2021 Six Nations title triumph and this summer’s historic victory over South Africa in Bloemfontein - have coincided with the most cohesive and effective tactics.
During the Championship success, the set-piece was very much the foundation stone. The scrum was strong, amid huge shifts from props Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis, while the lineout maul became an increasing weapon as the tournament progressed, with a significant percentage of their 20 tries stemming from that area, either directly or indirectly. That tally of 20 was the highest from any side, pointing to a clinical edge and an impressive conversion rate when in the opposition 22, which was all the more important in those games where they were behind in terms of territory and possession and had very limited chances.
As it happens, they actually played their best rugby in the one game they lost, out in Paris, where they were denied a Grand Slam in heartbreaking fashion at the end. Josh Navidi’s try in that game is right up there among the best in Pivac’s reign, in my view. It wasn’t a length of the field thriller, but in terms of a sustained passage of forceful, dynamic phase play, involving backs and forwards, with every yard fought for, it was a real top team try.
Fast forward then to South Africa this summer and a different set of tactics were employed to good effect. With the first two Tests being played at altitude, in Pretoria and Bloemfontein, Pivac decided Wales were going to have to take a controlled, conservative approach in the thin air and that’s what they did by and large, relying heavily on the kicking of Kieran Hardy and Dan Biggar to establish a territorial foothold and then backing their defence, led by Dan Lydiate, who was put on this earth to tackle big hulking Springboks.
The game-plan almost delivered a result at Loftus Versfeld and brought it’s ultimate reward in the second Test at the Free State Stadium. So credit where it’s due.
But the problem is that apart from those two notable successes, the tactics have often been hard to fathom or patently ineffective.
There was a real regression last season, amid a lack of clear purpose or plan, culminating in a first home defeat to Italy and it’s been the same again during this autumn. Pivac called it wrong for the opener against New Zealand, going for a dual openside approach, seemingly expecting a fast-paced, expansive encounter. But that didn’t tally with the more direct approach the All Blacks have been taken since Jason Ryan came on board as forwards coach and they proceeded to smash their way through the Welsh rearguard, making ground on virtually every carry which was in stark contrast to the home side’s inability to cross the gain-line.
Then came the nadir of the Georgian game. There was a telling moment midway through the second half when Sam Warburton pointed out on commentary that the visiting forwards were tiring and it was time for Wales to keep the ball in hand and put the match to bed. But still they stuck to their kicking strategy, even though they are currently without their two best aerial kick chasers in Biggar and Liam Williams.
You ended up with the sight of Rees-Zammit - one of the most dangerous runners in the world game and now handed the best counter-attacking position of all at full-back - banging the ball downfield, against a wearying Georgian side. Not that you could blame him as he was doubtless fulfilling the game plan, but it was pretty sad to watch.
We now wait to see what the approach will be against the Wallabies, with Pivac’s future very much on the line.
The main mistakes
If you look back on Pivac’s reign, the team selection for this year’s Six Nations game at home to Italy stands out as a major error.
Wales had put in a pretty decent effort in pushing eventual Grand Slam winners France all the way the week before, but rather than stick with that side, the Kiwi coach made seven changes. It was a move that backfired badly, as the Azzurri claimed a famous 22-21 victory.
In particular, Pivac’s decision to drop Will Rowlands to make way for Alun Wyn Jones to win his 150th cap came in for much criticism, as lock Rowlands had been arguably Wales’ player of the season and Jones hadn’t played since October.
Ultimately, the boss made too many changes and paid the price.
As is often the case with a coach, it’s in selection where he has made the calls which, with hindsight, look like the main errors.
Omitting Jac Morgan from the tour of South Africa looked an odd decision, especially when you heard Pivac saying the Ospreys flanker needed to be stronger over the ball, this being a player who was the reigning turnover king in the URC.
Moreover, Wales’ one win in this year’s Six Nations came when Morgan started, against Scotland. The form he has shown as arguably the stand-out player from a challenging autumn has made his previous omission all the more perplexing.
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What Pivac has generally wanted on the flank is a physical, big tackling blindside and a ball-carrying openside. Well, it's clear Morgan can turn his hand to both of those roles, while also offering a real jackaling threat at the breakdown. Let's hope he's now here to stay.
The other baffling selection decision of late was leaving Rhys Carre out of the autumn squad. He’s been one of the form players at regional level this year and at a time when Wales are short of forward ball carriers, it seemed a strange exclusion. Pivac, as he is not averse to doing, went public over his reasoning, saying the Cardiff prop had fallen short of conditioning requirements, but the player’s regional boss, Dai Young, delivered a differing interpretation, saying it was a weight target the loosehead had failed to hit.
Now there is an argument that Carre’s bulk and power is just what Wales could have done with this autumn, but as always coaches stand or fall by their choices. The same goes for that questionable back row balance against New Zealand and the wisdom of all the tinkering during Pivac’s time in charge.
And that’s really what you come back to after his three years at the helm. It’s down to him to make the big calls in terms of selection, tactics and man management. At times, they have come off, but at others they have gone badly wrong and right now the pressure is on him like never before.
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