Cardiff is the part of the UK most at risk of future flooding, according to new analysis. The research, by global flood modelling business Fathom, has found that three Welsh local authorities are in the UK top 10 for non-coastal flooding.
The Welsh capital has long been identified as one of the most at-risk cities in the world and this latest analysis shows just how susceptible it is to the man-made heating that is warming our planet. The other most at risk areas of Wales are Neath Port Talbot and Rhondda Cynon Taf, both of which have seen substantial flooding in recent years due to increased rainfall, their unique geography and industrial past.
Professor Paul Bates, who works at Bristol University and is chairman of Fathom, provided analysis on the data. He said: "We have mapped areas at risk of flooding due to rivers or heavy rainfall (ie. not coastal). We've defined being at risk as having a greater than 1% chance of flooding in any given year, which is a standard measure.
Read more: Wales' big carbon emissions problem
"We've mapped areas at risk using a detailed computer model for both now (actually 2020) and in 2050, accounting for future changes in climate. The changes in climate come from the latest UK Climate Change Projections. We then used a database of current house locations to calculate the number of properties at risk."
Where are the areas at risk?
Here are the top 10 areas with the highest risk of flooding by 2050:
- Cardiff, Wales – 17.09% of properties at risk, up from 15.06% in 2020
- Windsor and Maidenhead, England – 16.18%, up from 14.61%
- Warrington, England – 14.36%, up from 13.28%
- London borough of Barking and Dagenham, England – 12.31%, up from 11.56%
- Neath Port Talbot, Wales – 12.20%, up from 7.88%
- Scottish Borders, Scotland – 10.57%, up from 9.24%
- Rhondda Cynon Taf, Wales – 9.31%, up from 7.95%
- West Berkshire, England – 9.02%, up from 8.20%
- London borough of Greenwich, England – 8.92%, up from 8.52%
- Clackmannanshire, Scotland – 8.72%, up from 7.45%
Professor Bates continued: "The key data is the percentage of total number of properties in that LA area which are at risk of flooding. Overall, there are 1.09 million properties across Great Britain currently at risk of flooding, rising to 1.35 million by 2050, which is a 25% increase. However, it also means that over three quarters of the properties at risk by 2050 are already at risk today. If we were better prepared to deal with today’s flood risk that would be a great step to averting the worst impacts of climate change on this problem."
There has been widespread concerns raised about the UK Government's commitment to tackling climate change as an issue with Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeatedly making statements in the past link to climate scepticism and climate change denial. You can read more about this here.
Speaking about the data, Alex Davies-Jones, the MP for Pontypridd, said: "Obviously the flooding in 2020 which hit Pontypridd is something we never want to see repeated. That's why today I have written to the UK Government to ensure that funding for flood defences and repairs is more readily available in the future. I also have real concerns that the UK Government aren't doing enough to tackle climate change."
The climate emergency is accelerating as many large emitters show no clear signs of meeting their emissions targets. The temperatures at the Earth's poles reached utterly terrifying heights last month. Antarctica saw the mercury rise to 40C warmer than seasonal norms, whereas at the north pole it was 30C higher than normal.
Scientists believe it would be "virtually impossible" for these coldest areas of our planet to reach these temperatures without humans burning fossil fuels. Man-made climate change is well-established scientific fact. There have been many myths circulated about it which you can see debunked here and you can also read about the impact it is going to have on people here in Wales by clinking on this link.
