Over the weekend we saw why three AFC teams are trending in their current directions.
On the shores of Lake Erie, the Cleveland Browns are suddenly a dangerous squad. While the defense has been excellent all year, the offense finally has punch with the signing of Joe Flacco. And although Flacco has been throwing interceptions, he’s also creating chunk plays, as we’ll see below.
With the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson is the favorite to win league MVP. Yet it’s the defense that has led the team to the NFL’s best record. That unit has second-year safety Kyle Hamilton, who is proving why he deserves first-team All-Pro recognition after the season.
And finally, the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a slow slide from contender to pretender. On Christmas, Patrick Mahomes threw his second pick-six of the year. The loss to the Las Vegas Raiders showed a few of Kansas City’s problems and why the Chiefs don’t have an easy fix.
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Joe Flacco is a real weapon
With Flacco under center, the Browns are 3–1 and hold the AFC’s fifth seed. While he has thrown seven interceptions in that span, he’s also tossed 10 touchdowns while eclipsing the 300-yard mark three times.
Furthermore, Flacco’s deep-ball ability has unlocked Amari Cooper, who is thriving with the 2012 Super Bowl–winning quarterback. With Flacco, Cooper has 485 receiving yards and three scores.
On Sunday, the duo teamed up to torch the Houston Texans, with Cooper catching 11 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns.
It all started on the game’s first play from scrimmage. The Browns called for max protection and a two-man route, while the Texans sat in quarters (Cover 4) coverage. Cleveland ran a standard combination, with a deep in from the boundary side while Cooper ran a post on the field side.
Coach Kevin Stefanski was hoping to hit a big play early against an injury-riddled Houston team, and his aggressiveness paid off.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Once Flacco gets to the top of his drop, he has an easy read. The in-route from Elijah Moore (No. 8) is covered. He was bracketed well both in terms of depth and inside space.
However, Cooper has a chance. The 10-year veteran did a nice job of widening the boundary corner by bending his route a bit toward the sideline. Once Houston cornerback Steven Nelson (No. 21) opened his hips, he was unable to defend the post.
On the inside, Cooper has to beat safety Jimmie Ward (No. 1). Ward, however, took a bad angle on the play, driving on Cooper rather than staying on top. Once Flacco saw Cooper get even with Ward, with the defender’s hips facing the outside, he unloaded.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
While the pass was a tad underthrown, Cooper had separated enough from both Nelson and Ward to make the grab. The result was a 53-yard reception to open the game, followed by a Cleveland touchdown moments later.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
The Browns came out firing on the game's first play.
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) December 27, 2023
Kevin Stefanski has full confidence in Joe Flacco, and the 38-year-old still has the deep ball.
Amari Cooper runs through zone coverage, and Flacco hit him with the rainmaker. pic.twitter.com/Iv6XMsJ1B4
Kyle Hamilton shows superstar stuff
Christmas night promised a potential Super Bowl preview. If that’s the case, the San Francisco 49ers better start trying to figure out the Ravens.
On the game’s first possession, we saw what was to come. Brock Purdy threw the first of his four interceptions, including a pair to safety Kyle Hamilton.
Last year Hamilton showed talent as a first-rounder out of Notre Dame, notching two sacks and five passes defensed. In 2023, he’s become a game-changing star.
On the following play, San Francisco had a first-and-10 at Baltimore’s 15-yard line. The Niners were rolling, gaining 74 yards on only four plays. Here, they came out in 21-personnel (two RB, TE, two WR) with Deebo Samuel (No. 19) in the slot to the left. The Ravens played quarter coverage with three underneath defenders.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
At the top of Purdy’s drop, the picture couldn’t have been clearer for him. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (No. 44) and tight end George Kittle (No. 85) were occupying defenders on the right side, while Brandon Aiyuk (No. 11) was covered by the corner on the field side.
Meanwhile, Samuel was running a skinny post to the middle. Once he cleared middle linebacker Roquan Smith (No. 0) and bent inside, Purdy was ready to fire down the seam.
It’s the right play. The design was terrific for the coverage, except for one problem: Hamilton.
Most safeties on the boundary side, in this spot, would shade toward Kittle. On that drive alone, Kittle already had a 58-yard reception. Furthermore, Samuel is on the opposite side of the field. Hamilton has no reason to be looking that way, knowing he has a fellow safety on that side.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Instead, Hamilton makes a phenomenal play. He never drifts toward the right side and Kittle. Rather, the former Fighting Irish standout stands firm and waits for Purdy to release while Samuel runs toward him.
Purdy could have helped matters by throwing low and hard. It would have meant a tougher play for Samuel, but a throw with less risk. The pass ended up being accurate, but it gave Hamilton a chance to steal, which he gladly did.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Kyle Hamilton might be the best safety in football. Superstar talent.
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) December 27, 2023
Instead of being occupied by George Kittle's short, eye-candy route, Hamilton stays put, sees the route combination and makes a great INT, jumping in front of Deebo Samuel.
That's All-Pro stuff. pic.twitter.com/4JeAQkTTnt
Patrick Mahomes’ pick-six says plenty
The Chiefs are a championship team, but they’re a reeling one at that. Losers of five of its last eight games, Kansas City is struggling, with an offense that can’t find the end zone.
Over that 3–5 stretch, the Chiefs are averaging just over 19 points per game. Only once did they avoid a turnover, beating the Raiders 31–17 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 13.
On Christmas, Kansas City wasn’t as lucky.
Leading 7–3 in the second quarter, the Chiefs had the ball at their own 12-yard line before Isiah Pacheco and Mahomes misconnected on a handoff, resulting in a scoop-and-score. Then, on Kansas City’s next offensive play, disaster struck again.
On first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line, the Chiefs came out in trips formation to the right with rookie receiver Rashee Rice (No. 4) isolated on the back side. The Raiders played single-high, Cover 3 against the look, threatening with five men on the line of scrimmage.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
On the snap, Mahomes immediately rolls right. He has a high-low read with Justyn Ross (No. 8) running a corner route while Justin Watson (No. 84) runs a short comeback. With corner Jack Jones (No. 18) bailing from the start, Mahomes sees the throw should go to Watson, giving Kansas City an easy first-down completion.
However, Jones makes a terrific read based on Kansas City’s season-long tendencies. Knowing the Chiefs rarely throw deep—Mahomes’s average depth of target is 6.6, better than only Joe Burrow among qualified quarterbacks—Jones has no respect for Watson’s speed.
Instead, he slowly backpedals while staring at Mahomes, who never took his eyes off Watson. While doing this, Jones gets enough depth to make Ross appear covered on a deeper throw.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Once Mahomes releases the throw, Jones jumps the route. Watson, instead of aggressively coming back to the ball as the route called for, fades away.
In the end, an easy six points for the Raiders, who wisely showed no respect (both with a single-high safety and the downhill nature of their coverage) for Kansas City’s inept passing game.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Mahomes' pick-six yesterday could easily be dismissed as a horrible throw by a great player. And that's true.
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) December 27, 2023
But watch the All-22. Jack Jones has no respect for a deep shot. Never looks at Watson. Plays off-coverage, stares at Mahomes and drives hard on the ball.
Easy money. pic.twitter.com/6eoJdbZENG
