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While most of the chatter in financial media is about how the Fed will make a 25-basis point rate hike Wednesday afternoon, the market is telling us it won't happen until October.
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The fact the move could come before US mid-term elections would make things more interesting, and likely more uncomfortable for Fed Chairman Warsh.
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Additionally, the Fed fund futures forward curve is showing two rate hikes before the end of 2026, and with no meeting scheduled for November, the outline is clear, much to the chagrin of the White House.
We have reached another Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday, meaning Fed Chairman Warsh will announce the FOMC’s next move on interest rates at 14:00 (ET). For those interested, this would be 15:00 Caracas time (after all, the US president is also the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela) and 22:00 Baghdad and Moscow time. As we move into the day, there are three things I’ll be keeping an eye on.
