Here are three numbers that helped determine the result of the Kansas City Chiefs’ 27-24 win vs. the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday at Arrowhead Stadium.
-13
A lot of games don’t come down to one play, but if we’re honest ... this one did.
With the game tied at 17-17 early in the fourth quarter, the Chargers had first-and-goal at the 3 and a 69% chance of winning according to the model at rbsdm.com. Justin Herbert threw an interception to the Chiefs’ Jaylen Watson, though, with the rookie cornerback returning it 99 yards for a touchdown.
Los Angeles’ win-probability dropped to 16% with that one play — swinging 53%(!) in a few seconds.
According to rbsdm, the one snap’s resulted in negative-13 expected points for Los Angeles. That’s about as much of a swing as one NFL play can have.
41
While we’re talking about big plays ... Patrick Mahomes picked the best of times to deliver his longest throw of the season.
With the Chiefs trailing 17-7 in the third quarter, the Chargers brought a rare blitz on third-and-10, with Mahomes stepping up to avoid the pressure and deliver a touchdown strike deep to Justin Watson.
The 41-yard pass was perfectly placed over the top of the Chargers’ JC Jackson — a free-agent signing this offseason widely considered one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
52
Needing a score to ice the game up 24-17 late in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs finished things off appropriately: with another huge momentum-shifter.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire broke through the right side of the Chiefs’ line and sprinted down the sideline for 52 yards — the longest run of his three-year NFL career.
Tack on a face-mask penalty on the Chargers, and the ball moved from the Chiefs’ 15 to the Chargers’ 18 — good for 4.3 expected points. Four plays later, Matt Ammendola put through a 32-yard field goal to give KC a much-more-comfortable, two-possession edge.
