THREE massive new polls published within one hour of each have all predicted the winners of every constituency in Britain at the General Election – and all produced different results.
The most recently conducted was published by YouGov at 5pm and predicted the Tories are on course to win “the fewest seats in their near-200 year history”.
The YouGov survey further predicted Labour would win 425 seats, while the LibDems would return 67.
The SNP were projected to return 20 Scottish MPs, while Nigel Farage’s Reform were estimated to win five seats, Plaid Cymru four, and the Greens two.
YouGov interviewed 36,161 adults in England and Wales and 3818 in Scotland between June 11 and 18 to produce their results.
Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history Labour: 425 (+223) Conservative: 108 (-257) Lib Dem: 67 (+56) SNP: 20 (-28) Reform UK: 5 (+5) Plaid: 4 (±0) Green: 2 (+1)https://t.co/IcCwaclKHz pic.twitter.com/Vu1FpbroQ9
— YouGov (@YouGov) June 19, 2024
Twenty minutes before the YouGov poll was published, a Savanta survey for The Telegraph predicted the Tories would return just 53 MPs at the General Election, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak losing his seat.
The Savanta polling, which asked around 18,000 people for their views between June 7 and June 18, predicted Labour would win a huge 516 seats – while the LibDems would win 50.
The Savanta poll had bad news for the SNP, projecting the party would win just eight seats north of the Border.
Plaid Cymru were predicted to win four seats in Wales, while the Greens were projected to lose their one constituency.
And one hour before the YouGov poll, a third MRP survey conducted by the firm More in Common also predicted a massive Labour majority with 406 seats “while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate”.
That poll, which surveyed more than 10,000 Brits between May 22 and June 17, also projected that the Conservatives would slump to 155 MPs, their worst seat total since 1906.
Meanwhile, the SNP will be reduced to 18 seats, according to the poll, with Labour sweeping through much of central Scotland and becoming the nation’s biggest party for the first time since 2015.
Unlike Tuesday’s Ipsos MRP poll, both the Savanta and More In Common surveys forecast Reform UK winning no seats, with the Tories holding Clacton against Nigel Farage’s challenge.
Plaid Cymru were projected to win two seats, while the Greens were on one.
More in Common’s results suggested Labour would make gains across the North of England and the Midlands and win much of Wales.
It also forecast the Conservatives being almost wiped out in London, holding on to only a handful of constituencies on the fringe of the capital and neck-and-neck with either Labour or the Liberal Democrats in other areas.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, said the fact it is one of the more positive recent polls for the Tories “shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in” with barely two weeks left until polling day.
He said: “Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives’ position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.
“Labour on the other hand looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.”
The More in Common poll was conducted on behalf of The News Agents podcast, surveyed 10,850 people.
All three polls used the multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) technique to model results at constituency level.
