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Miami Herald
Miami Herald
National
Alex Harris

This year, forecasters get a hurricane model upgrade. Will better predictions follow?

Forecasting hurricanes is a tricky science.

Whether a storm forms, strengthens or turns in a specific direction can be decided by dozens of factors, from ocean temperatures to the direction of winds to the amount of dirt floating in the air.

But hurricane scientists are better than ever at predicting where these storms are going and what kinds of impacts they’ll bring. Forecasters can now offer a two-day forecast that is as accurate as a one-day forecast was a decade ago, and a five-day forecast that’s more accurate than a three-day forecast was two decades ago.

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