Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel yesterday was a significant escalation in the conflict between the two states. And Israel has promised a response, which could include direct strikes on Tehran. However, the most active front in the conflict in the region is still on the Israeli-Lebanese border, with Israeli troops invading southern Lebanon.
Iran’s attack came in the aftermath of Israel’s killing of Hezbollah secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah; Iran’s close connection with Hezbollah means it is deeply invested in the outcome of the conflict in Lebanon. At the same time, while Israel is presenting the invasion as a limited and short-term ground operation, it represents a significant escalation of its conflict with Hezbollah, as well as a huge commitment of military resources. The intertwinement of the Lebanese and regional fronts will impact Lebanon’s long-term security – but also Israel’s.
