As the adage goes, if you want to win The Masters at Augusta National, you have to play the par 5s well. It’s a statement that’s virtually always true, but as in any walk of life, there’s often an exception that proves the rule.
I’ve looked at every winner’s scorecard since 1974 – when Gary Player won his second Green Jacket – and of the 50 players to have reigned supreme since then, 49 of them were under-par for the week on the par 5s.
There’s potential for disaster on all of Augusta’s long holes, but all of them are in reach in two – especially the 13th and 15th, which have always been short for par 5s.
Some 16 of the last 50 winners played the 2nd, 8th, 13th and 15th in ten-under-par or better, while only five of 50 were four-under-par or worse. The mean average of the last 50 winners’ under-par scores on the par 5s is 8.16.
The overwhelming evidence is that you have to be under-par – and generally considerably under-par – on the par 5s at Augusta to have a chance of winning The Masters.
Enter Danny Willett.
In 2016, Willett seemingly came from nowhere to post a bogey-free final-round 67 and win by three strokes from Jordan Spieth. He actually made two par-5 birdies during the final round, which means he was two-over-par for the long holes from rounds one to three.
Given data and trends, it’s stunning he was able to get the job done with such indifferent par-5 performance. Interestingly, he only made 13 birdies as well – the fewest by a winner in the last ten years.
However, he only made eight bogeys and, crucially, he was able to keep a double-bogey off the scorecard. Only 20% of Masters winners from the last 25 years have made a double and gone on to claim the title.
The best par-5 performance over the last 50 years came from American Ray Floyd in 1976, when he negotiated Augusta National’s three-shotters in an incredible 14-under-par. He finished the event on 17-under and eight shots clear of Ben Crenshaw in second place.
In 2008, Zach Johnson played the par 5s in 11-under-par despite famously laying up on every one of them. The winning score that year was +1, underlining the importance of par-5 scoring at The Masters.
