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Fortune
Fortune
Nick Lichtenberg

This ‘economic sugar high’ won’t last, CRFB warns, touting analysis predicting long-term stagnation and $600 billion in annual borrowing through 2028

Donald Trump (Credit: Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images)

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) is warning the United States is experiencing an “economic sugar high” that will not endure, citing a new analysis of the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

According to a detailed assessment from the nonpartisan budget watchdog, the OBBBA will deliver a significant boost to economic output in the near term, with estimates showing growth rates could climb by nearly 1% in 2026, driven by increased demand and one-time incentives for labor and investment. However, the organization stresses this burst of activity is fleeting and warns projected long-term growth will stagnate as additional borrowing burdens the economy. “An economic sugar high doesn’t mean sustained growth,” the think tank pronounced.

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