LAS VEGAS — The afternoon of Thursday, Sept. 28, an anxious John “the Barber” Taddio pondered how he would watch the Blackhawks and rookie magician Connor Bedard that evening.
A pal came through, though, informing Taddio, the ace NHL bettor and tonsorial maestro at the South Point, how to obtain free access to TheTVApp on his phone.
“Watched every second,” the Barber said as he sat in his barber’s chair the next day. “Bedard is very good. He’ll give them a lot of energy. I thought that first game would be a good one to bet on them.”
Bedard supplied both assists in Chicago’s 2-1 preseason overtime triumph over St. Louis. John the Barber played two three-team NHL parlays that evening, both involving the Hawks. Both won.
I coat-tailed both tickets, turning $20 into more than $100.
“I like their roster but don’t know about their coaching; they didn’t seem to be in the right spots,” the Barber said. “At even strength, St. Louis often had 2½-minute stretches of possession. That’s concerning.”
Circa Sports hockey oddsman Jeff Davis has a ticket on the Blackhawks to finish Under 73.5 points. DraftKings has 71.5, -115 either way.
Davis’ power figures project Chicago with 65 points; they’ve averaged 63.5 the last four seasons.
“There’s definitely a cap to how good that team can be,” he said. “It will still have some glaring holes on defense and in goal, and at forward depth.
“But there’s a caveat. They have some high-ceiling guys who could be better than projected. And they’ll be a heck of a lot more exciting and fun to watch than they were last season.”
VALUE RANGERS
When Davis saw 105 points on defending Stanley Cup-champion Vegas, he grabbed an Under position since he power-rated it at 97.5.
He also snagged Washington Under 88 and St. Louis Under 86.5, and he recommends wagering on the Blues to miss the playoffs at a price of -200 (risk $200 to win $100) or less; DraftKings has -250.
(Prices and odds subject to change.)
Davis is rather bullish about the Rangers to win the Metropolitan Division, at +400 to +450. The Rangers are +330 at DraftKings, +400 at the South Point, where Carolina (+170) and New Jersey (+200) are division favorites.
“When it gets down to power ratings, there’s very little separating those three teams,” Davis says. “I can’t think of how many teams have six really good defensemen and an elite goalie, and that’s what makes the Rangers so good.”
Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers’ 27-year-old Russian keeper, is 73-26-12 over his last two seasons, with a 2.25 goals-against average.
Davis envisions either Dallas (16-1 to win it all at South Point), Edmonton (8-1) or Colorado (8-1) representing the West in the Stanley Cup Final, against the Rangers (10-1), Hurricanes (8-1) or Devils (10-1).
He trumpeted snatching that Under 86.5 on the Blues.
“They finished with 81 points last season and really did nothing to improve their roster, except signing Kevin Hayes from the Flyers. He’s on the backside of his career and will play second-line center — a tough ask.
“Outside of San Jose, the Blues probably have the worst defensive group in the league.”
He has seen Jordan Binnington regress each season between the Blues’ pipes since entering the league in 2015.
“They just don’t have anything going for them, and everyone around them seems to have improved. So I think it’ll be tough sledding in St. Louis.”
POINT A GAME?
Hence, it might be wise to fade the Blues frequently, which is how John the Barber operates. Instead of tossing darts at a futures board, the Barber takes a measured, methodical daily approach to his NHL betting.
Typically, he fashions $100 parlays with three or four legs, perhaps even involving a team from another sport, that’s capped by a late start.
After initial results, he’ll hedge to guarantee profit or regroup with a late card. He has multiple phone apps and follows the NHL like a Cold War triple agent.
On Bedard’s freshman-campaign projections, DraftKings had 74.5 points (-115 either way) and 31.5 goals (same pricing). This week, those points were 69.5, as buyers pounded Under, and his goals hit 32.5.
By Wednesday, only five players had accumulated more than his five preseason points (a goal, four assists).
Davis says it’s fair to compare Bedard projections to what Edmonton’s eighth-year superstar center Connor McDavid registered in his first NHL season — 16 goals and 32 assists over 45 games.
“Around a point a game,” Davis says. “His numbers in juniors were kind of on par with McDavid’s. By all accounts, [Bedard] figures to be next-generational talent.
“He has a nice linemate in Taylor Hall, a former NHL MVP [2017-18, for New Jersey]. But he’ll be a 19-year-old center in the NHL playing against other teams’ best [centers], on most shifts.”
I did grab a 200-1 ticket on the Blackhawks winning it all, at Circa Sports on June 30, should they catch lightning in a bottle.
“There’s probably gonna be some ugly times,” Davis said, “but they have a lot of things to make you, as a fan, want to tune in to all 82 games. A year ago, that wasn’t necessarily the case.”
