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Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Think the RBA will lift rates on Melbourne Cup day? Don't bet your house on it

Each of Australia’s big four banks is now predicting a rate rise in six days’ time on Melbourne Cup Tuesday. It would add another A$77 to the monthly cost of servicing a $500,000 mortgage and be enough to take the total extra monthly impost since rates began climbing to more than $1,000.

Why on earth would they be expecting the Reserve Bank to lift rates at a time when Australians are buying less than they were a year ago and the most trusted measure of annual inflation, the comprehensive quarterly one, is heading down?


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